BATTLE AGAINST THE WEST

AIM Zagreb, 3 December, 1996

Is the seriously ill Franjo Tudjman preparing for one of his last battles - a battle against the West? Several days after his return from the medical treatment in the United States, he convened a session of the Presidency of the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) at which the sharpest criticism ever uttered against policy of the Western countries towards Croatia was heard. The countries of the West were accused that they were in various ways, mostly by donations to different independent institutions and groups, trying to turn the public "against the HDZ" and in this way "destabilize the country".

It was also announced that the membership of the HDZ and the public would be informed about the details, which was supposed to mean that more would be said which countries this referred to and, of course, who their "collaborationists" were here in Croatia. Although there is no secret about it, because the list of domestic "enemies" for a long time now has included the same addresses - the Soros Foundation, the Croatian Helsinki Committee, the Croatian PEN and a handful of independent journals - and it is also no news for anyone that Tudjman has managed to spoil all old alliances this country had with European countries, but also the new ones on the other side of the ocean.

Why was then the topic of outer "enemies" of Croatia put on the agenda at this moment? All things considered, the answer should be sought in the hospital days of Tudjman in Washington, when news reached him about the first massive anti-HDZ demonstrations in Zagreb. Nobody knows who had brought him the news, nor what exactly was said to the gloomy state leader, but he accused the "communists" and the "Yugoslavs" for the demonstrations, adding after return to Zagreb that they were connected to the "devils" of all colours in the world in order to effectuate their fiendish intention. Even for Tudjman, who is not choosing words in backbiting his opponents, this was a word too many, because in the mass of about hundred thousand people at the Jelacic square, there was a significant group of nationally more than "aware" fans of Dinamo, former infatuated supporters of the HDZ - taxi drivers, students.

Indeed, Tudjman used to give biting lectures to that part of the public before, but this time he should have realized that circumstances had changed by the fact that almost nobody from among the other HDZ and state officials dared speak about the demonstrators in this manner. Quite contrary, the demonstrators achieved the main cause they had gathered for - they succeeded to save the independent Radio 101, which had been deprived of its channel just a day before by the state committee for telecommunications. It is therefore, not unusual that the initial Tudjman's indictment was later broadened to other addresses, and not just addressed to those in the "street", among other because it is easier to wage an organized political campaign against them, which Tudjman so badly needs at the moment. There were a few direct causes for it, and judging by the reactions of the "state-building" press, Tudjman must have been enraged the most by participation of the American Ambassador in Croatia, Peter Galbraith, in a program of Radio 101, at the very time when he was absent from the country, and when a mass of discontented people were starting to gather in the streets who later on filled the central Zagreb square.

And since a very sharp condemnation of the Croatian authorities arrived on that same day from the State Department, and allegedly it had never before reacted so quickly, it is easy to imagine that Tudjman took it into his head that it was a well-conceived "scenario" and that the Americans had a hand in it. Distrust against the recent "ally" had certainly arisen several days before that, because American media (CNN) were the first to reveal and publish the news that he was on medical treatment of cancer, although Tudjman had, allegedly, explicitly demanded that his visit to Washington be treated as private, and all details about the illness be kept secret. Immediately afterwards in American press, but later on in French and others, speculations began about who would succeed Tudjman, with advices to the world diplomacy to prevent people from coming to power who would rule in the same manner as he and Milosevic were doing, who were practically outlaws since they "stole" results of local elections in their respective countries.

Straining of Tudjman's relations to Western democracies could not have been anticipated, but it is not too surprising either. His attitude towards them has always vacillated between limited accusations that they had no understanding for Croatia's independence and claims that even these countries were forced to finally accept the unavoidable role of Croatia, in fact his own, in resolution of the difficult war crisis. This last allegation was expressedly for internal use, just as the current straining of relations with the West was aimed at laying the responsibility for the unexpected dramatization of circumstances in Croatia at their door. This is the old trick used by the former regime, which Tudjman was after all formed by, and which had reached out for it whenever other methods of "mobilization of masses" failed.

And yet it is hard to believe that this will bear lasting results, because discontent which this time culminated in the streets was disregarded for too long, and at the same time it accumulated from different directions (oppression of the few independent media, ignoring the electoral will of the citizens, childish haggling with fans of Dinamo football team about the name of the team). On the other hand, the Croatian President obviously does not even tacticly intend to satisfy the discontented citizens, because he not only rejects their demands, but cannot even understand them. The new foreign political position is primarily directed towards closing the ranks of his own ruling party, because Tudjman considers it to be the main and probably also the only warranty for internal stability of the country.

Cracks in the HDZ have started most conspicuously to show at the time of Zagreb demonstrations. Although there are indications that the ban of the radio station had been demanded by Tudjman himself, it caused confusion, commotion, and even open rejection in tha ranks of Tudjman's party, because the decision on liquidation of the small independent media and the illness of the chief of the party initiated agitation between the liberal and the conservative parts of the HDZ (with the first signs of a concealed but tough struggle for nominating his successor). In the first few days, the opposition also tried to get involved demanding that the truth about Tudjman's illness be officially published, but soon it got alarmed by its own demand and fell silent.

Therefore, Tudjman's illness at the moment has the status of a restricted topic which is publicly not discussed, making the political situation in the country additionally confusing, and forthcoming developments hardly predictable. After the demonstrations in the centre of Zagreb, there are no new signs of discontent, but almost everyday there are protests of retired persons, education workers, clerks, railway workers. This creates an atmosphere of expectations whether the authorities will begin to give in to the increasingly persistent pressure exerted by the discontented citizens, but it is difficult to expect that they will until the outcome of the dilemma concerning Tudjman's disease becomes known. If it would be published what disease he is actually suffering from, it would probably soon become necessary to state that he was "permanently prevented" to discharge his duties, which would then open the period of sixty days in which, according to the Constitution, elections for a new president would have to be conducted.

But, since there is obviously no intention to do anything of the kind, it might even happen that Tudjman, concealing his illness, intends to announce his candidacy at the presidential elections again. That would without doubt be a great deception of the voters, although it would probably somewhat pacify the unsparing, ruthless struggle for succession among his present associates. But, this struggle will flare up again as soon as it becomes impossible to conceal that he is really seriously ill.

MARINKO CULIC