SILENCE AFTER TEMPEST

Macedonia after Local Elections

AIM Skopje, 4 December, 1996

The second, decisive round of local elections, held in an atmosphere burdened by emotions, in which from the very beginning it was clear that the participants were competing in something that exceeded the limits of elections in the new, fragmentised division of territory, for "local units of self-administration" (which number from literally a hundred odd voters up to 120 thousand voters). The assessment that the local elections are a test of the relation of forces on the Macedonian political scene, certainly had a decisive influence on creation of such an atmosphere. After a lot of "ardour", the elections ended surprisingly peacefully, without excitement - at least for the time being.

The intense rhythm imposed from the very beginning was expected ever since the dissolution of the parliamentary election coalition Alliance for Macedonia, which included the Social Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM), the Liberal Party (LP) and the Socialist Party (SP), under the "hat" of President Kiro Gligorov, who is an undoubted authority. After the election victory in which the Alliance for Macedonia had won two-thirds majority in the parliament, problems arose. The Government was formed literally in a minute to twelve. Return of Gligorov was awaited in order to prevent collapse of the Alliance and a split between the then leading Social Democrats and the Liberals, immediately after the initial triumph. The depth of the crisis is best illustrated by the fact that during voting about the Government in the parliament, the Liberals abstained from voting although they had their representatives among the ministers. Ever since then until the reconstruction of the Government which followed President Gligorov's return to his duty after the attempt on his life, in which the Liberals were sacked from the Government, it became clear that the Alliance for Macedonia was dead and that in the local elections which were not held for six long years (due to the lack of legal regulations on the manner in which they would be organized, but also due to the new division of the state), the parties from the Alliance would run on their own.

In the meantime, another two things occurred which essentially determined the course of the elections. First, the opposition which is not represented in the parliament, primarily the VMRO-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) and the Democratic Party (DP) which boycotted the second round of parliamentary elections in 1994 due to numerous irregularities, discontented with what was going on in the state, organized collecting of 150 thousand signatures which, according to the Macedonian Constitutions, should have obliged the parliament to schedule a referendum on early parliamentary elections. Collecting of signatures raced with express adoption of the new law on collecting signatures concerning referendum issues. Strangely enough, the opposition managed to collect more than 220 thousand signatures, before the parliamentarians managed to vote on the law. After that, the Ministry of justice took upon itself to verify authenticity of the signatures. This was completed in a month, and then the parliament proclaimed itself competent for scheduling the referendum, obviously counting on a delay by passing the ball to the Constitutional Court which had to reach a formal decision about it. The procedure has not been completed yet! The other thing which shook the SDSM before the local elections is certainly the congress of the Socialists at which the "candidate of continuity" was not elected as planned, who was in fact a man who would have, as the new President of the SP, played the same role as the previous (deceased) president - the role of a man in the shadow of the SDSM in good old tradition of the Socialist Alliance. At the mentioned congress, a man who was a "thorn in the flesh" of the ruling party was elected instead, who intended to redefine relations in the coalition. The person in question, Ljubisav Ivanov - Zingo, indeed is controversial. He turned his Kratov, back at the time of the old regime, into a "feudal estate" - everything was owned by the firm which he headed (and still does) and which was privatized. In the meantime he "bought" a great deal of business premises in Skopje (at the city stadium where a discotheque was opened, a radio and tv station), in Kumanovo and other cities, and became the president of the football Alliance of Macedonia at the moment his team for the second time won the title of the champion of the state. After he had become the head of the Socialists, it was clear that their participation in the ruling coalition would be re-examined, or in the worst possible but also the most probable variant - that they would step out. In the local elections, that is what happened, one could say to the detriment of the SDSM.

In such an atmosphere, a vehement campaign for the local elections began, in which it primarily became clear that a lot of money was squandered, from abroad of course, by those who could afford it - the SDSM had the most aggressive campaign in the media which, according to the words of their recent partners - the Liberals, cost 25 million German marks! The Liberals used the advertising space of the firms headed by their members. The Socialists used the media (radio and TV station) owned by its leader (or his son, which is just the same). The coalition, or more precisely perhaps, the election cooperation VMRO-DPMNE and the DP spent what as much as they had. Their joint candidates, more than anyone else's, shifted around for themselves the best they could.

Finally, in the midst of all the tensions, and mutual accusations, the first round of the elections came. Foreign observers from the Council of Europe, at their press conference, publicized the problem of a large number of people who were omitted from the electoral register and who fulfilled the requirements to be in it, stressing that some 20 to 25 per cent of the voters were prevented from voting in this manner. Later on, the edge was taken off their stance by the OSCE.

At any rate, in the first round, councils were elected and selective candidates for the second round of the race for mayors. The period between the two rounds, one could say was devoted to feeling the pulse - tensions eased, there was no aggressive campaign in the media, everyone was closely watching every move of the opponents. Finally, the second round came. The results (minus the election of nine mayors which will be repeated due to irregularities) are known: 114 mayors were elected, SDSM got 53, coalition VMRO-DPMNE, DP and (on the margins) MARK-Conservative Party got 28, the Albanian Party for Democratic Prosperity (PDP) which participates in the administration won 13 seats, the SP 7, the Party of Democratic Prosperity of the Albanians (PDPA) 4 and some other, small parties won the rest.

The first impression is that the ruling parties confirmed their leading position by having won the biggest number of mayors. But, apart from Bitolj, Kicevo, Veles and Gevgelija in which they won, they are defeated by the coalition and the SP in other cities - like those in the eastern part of the country - Strumica, Stip or Ohrid, and what is most important in Skopje (where the opposition won the seat of the mayor in a decisive victory, as well as power in four city municipalities which form the central part of the capital). Therefore, the situation resembles the one in Croatia, but also that in Serbia - the ruling parties preserved power in the rural regions, but obviously lost in the urban ones... Nothing to say about the difference in the number of votes between these two environments.

Such outcome of the local elections in Macedonia may be marked also as the beginning of the end of the SDSM. They are slowly sliding downwards, and VMRO-DPMNE, despite shocks it had experienced in the past years (division into factions and split into partes) is still holding its position among the opposition. The Socialists of Zingo are a real surprise, the Democrats and the Liberals are on the way to be completely pushed to the margins, and the Albanian parties are working for the benefit of the Macedonian block by their internal polarizations.

The greatest surprise in the first round was the independent candidate for the mayor of Skopje, Ljupco Nikolovski-Fufo, caterer, but also the former first man of the Skopje Government who had left visible evidence of his successful work, who came second with just about twenty to thirty votes less than the leading elected mayor of Skopje, Risto Penov, the second man of the DP, but with a few thousand votes more than the surgeon who operated Gligorov after the attempt on his life, who was the main trump card of the SDSM. Nevertheless, in the second round, in which he also came out second, but this time with a much bigger difference, it became evident that party affiliation and support was decisive after all.

As already stressed, in these local elections, the Socialists practically disassociated themselves from the coalition which practically means that a portion of the discontented with the new course of the party will have to leave it, and since they are the ones who are sitting in the Government or occupy seats in the parliament, it means that they will depend more on the will of the Prime Minister than their own President. This haggling between the SDSM and the SP was already evident in pre-election rallies of the party at which the leaders of the SDSM did not watch their words in qualifying Ivanov. With his attractive presentations in which he addressed the workers, the intellectuals and small businessmen, he advocated resolution of economic problems. These performances with plenty of demagogy and a taste of populism brought the SP its third place. Of course, this is not favourable for the SDSM, because in fact it means that the SP has "snatched away" their votes from them.

The Liberals may be both satisfied and dissatisfied. This party which, while it was in the alliance with the SDSM and the Socialists, used to be considered just a "lobby group", which was said to have as many members as there were Liberals in the Parliament and the Government, won about seven per cent of the votes and 108 seats in the local councils. On the other hand, optimistic forecasts that the elections would show that they were in fact the third party proved to be exaggerated. They will not have a single mayor, which shows that their party will be pushed further to the margins. The Democratic Party of Petar Gosev can also be proclaimed to be a "loser". In the alliance with VMRO-DPMNE it fared quite well, while in its "solo" appearance in the election for councils, its results are below expectations of its leadership.

As concerning the Albanian parties, it proved that they have got the worst of the bargain. Although this can partly be explained by the unfavourable (for the Albanians) new territory division of Macedonia into 123 municipalities, it seems that it was decisive for the results that the Albanian political electorate is divided, which according to official data from the latest census is not below 22.9 per cent of the total electorate. The PDP obviously paid the bill for its participation in the coalition in power. Its opponent

• the Party for Democratic Prosperity of the Albanians - obviously improved its rating by criticizing the PDP for its inefficient participation in power. The PDPA is therefore, the moral winner in the local elections, at least when speaking of the Albanians. On the other hand, such developments suit the Macedonian parties just fine, which although they criticize the radicalism of the PDPA, nevertheless wish for its strengthening because in this way it is weakening the position of the PDP. After reconstruction of the Government, the PDP has tried to change its status in the parliament and the Government from just being "present" into the status of a partner, which does not suit Prime Minister and the leader of the SDSM, Branko Crvenkovski, at all. Of course, the worst still lies ahead. The ruling coalition must overcome internal shocks (caused both by the SP and the PDP). The Constitutional Court must finally state its stance concerning the initiative for a referendum on early elections. Those in power are concerned about the developments in former Yugoslavia, where the people have started to go out into the streets despite the cold winter.

ISO RUSI