TRAPS OF A HALF-VICTORY

Local Elections in Macedonia

AIM Skopje, 20 November, 1996

A certain old woman called Mara from the Galicnik flats in West Macedonia became a veritable media star in the first stage of the local electoral procedure. Namely, this strong eighty years old woman was the only registered voter at the voting place No.11 in the commune of Rostuse so that the journalists competed in inventing an attractive way for exploiting this true oddity. However, the old lady is used to spending winters with her offspring in Skopje so that the key issue on the success of voting at that point boiled down to the question whether she would appear in her place of residence last weekend or not. Some more pressing matters prevented journalists from finishing their story so that it is still not known whether the turnout of voters at the "electoral point 11" was 100 percent or a total flop.

In the end it turned out that the case of the old woman Mara transformed from oddity into a paradigm as it is impossible to determine much more important facts about the outcome of the Macedonian local elections long after the expiry of legal deadlines. The communal electoral committees had a 24 hour deadline to inform on the results, but even after two days, at the time this text is being written, apart from "unofficial and incomplete" data which the media are collecting from the electoral headquarters through their own channels, there are no relevant indicators. Still, interesting processes are behind what has been published.

Thus, figures will show that the first is the ruling Social-Democratic Alliance, to whose pre-electoral slogan "Always Forward" and the reference to its merits for all that has been achieved, the voters obviously responded. Till now this party won 503 mandates in the communal councils, bodies of the local self-government which, according to the new territorial division of Macedonia, number precisely 124. The second is a nationally oriented opposition party VMRO-DPMNE with 339 councillors which testifies that here too, as well as everywhere else, there exists a stable constant of those faithful to the seductive national option.

The Socialist Party, successfully flirting with populism, secured for itself a high third place with 174 councillors which, having in mind its hitherto rating, can be considered a veritable surprise. The other two opposition parties, the Democratic Party and the Liberal Party won some hundred seats each. The largest Albanian parties, the PDP and PDPA, literal antipodes in the method of interpreting the Albanian national issue, have practically divided their "own" electorate, with the first, also a coalition partner in the Macedonian government, somewhat preserving the priority by winning 92 places, in contrast to 80 that went to its radical and impatient rivals.

Worth mentioning is also a fact that the elections for the communal councils have been organized according to the proportionate system, so that irrespective of the incomplete data it is hardly likely that the proportions will drastically change after the final distribution of the electoral sympathies.

The ruling party is leading in the race for mayor's office which was, by the way, more exciting and interesting, but also uncertain for the public as it is organized according to the majority voting system, so that there will be a second round. The lack of official information caused a relative diversity in the interpretation of available data so that, depending on the source, the number of communes which have elected their first man in the first round ranges somewhere between 27 and 40 (out of the total 123 plus the city of Skopje). The last figure belongs to the official "New Macedonia" (Nova Makedonija) and, irrespective of its reliability, is most interesting for comparison purposes.

According to estimates the SDSM has won "power" in 14 communes, the coalition of the mentioned VMRO and Democratic Party had that honour in 11 communes, the PDP in nine, and the Socialists in four communes. It is indicative that the ruling party has won the advantage in small communes, but it could easily lose the "most urban" Macedonian cities of Skopje and Ohrid.

Obviously, the preliminary ("unofficial and incomplete") results practically give all the parties equal reason for satisfaction as well as somewhat different interpretations. With the emphatic triumphant tones the ruling party got "a convincing popular support" which shows that parties supporting the authorities have won more votes than the opposition ones. At first glance.

However, it should be recalled that the SDSM alone has a majority in Parliament and that up till now it secured only one fourth of the total 1,902 councillor seats and one third of the "split" mayoral functions. Also, a question is raised whether the old SDSM and SP coalition will be able to harmoniously function after all frantic mutual disqualifications branded about during the campaign. Not even the pragmatic partnership with the PDP in the legislative and executive bodies can be applied at the level of local self-government for the simple reason that the Macedonian communes are, for the most part, divided according to national quotas.

Another question is what possible intersections and associations may occur on the ground between two electoral rounds and, later, in the process of consuming the "fourth rule".

All in all, the opposition has neither realized its over-ambitious expectations, although expressions of self-satisfaction are coming from their quarters. Its leaders have long ago announced a "charge" at judicial, and after that at the executive authorities, precisely by first winning the local elections. It seems that the support they have elicited last week, which they count on in the future, will be insufficient to force the calling of extraordinary parliamentary elections, although it is a question what would they do even if they got such a chance. If, on the other hand, they consider that with their relative success they have fulfilled prerequisites for the promotion of the democratic atmosphere in Macedonia and have deprived the current authorities of the "unbearable ease of rule", then they would have to be satisfied with these elections. As far as the opposition is concerned, the outstanding results of the Albanian opposition will certainly not be without repercussions.

Shaded with garish national colours the PDPA, in coalition with its sisterly National Democratic Party, has markedly undermined the influence of Aliti's PDP which could undermine the self-confidence with which this practical politician approached even the most delicate problems on the local political scene. As it seems, the other round of elections for Mayor on December 1, will not change the original picture, but may rather only thicken some lines, which are for the time being, only indicated.

Piçe: BUDO VUKOBRAT