SOLJIC AND CENGIC LEAVING

Resignations in exchange for tanks and positions

AIM, SARAJEVO, November 19, 1996

The drama surrounding the unloading of nearly one hundred million dollars worth arms shipment which the United States of America have sent to the Army of the Federation, is nearing its end. After Alija Izetbegovic announced that all requests of the USA will be met, i.e. that Hasan Cengic, the Federation's Deputy Defence Minister shall resign, the Defence Minister Vladimir Soljic decided to do the same. Formally speaking all the conditions imposed by Washington to the federal partners were thus fulfilled and the ship "Hurricane" could enter the Ploce port and deliver to the Federation army 45 tanks, 79 armored personnel carriers, 15 helicopters, over 40 thousand guns and several tens of millions of bullets, which make the ship's cargo with which it circled around the Adriatic for over one month.

The United States have thus once more demonstrated their power and got what they wanted: the departure of Hasan Cengic, a man said to be on (too) good terms with Iran, but of Vladimir Soljic too, on account of the alleged obstruction of the application of the federal Law on Defence and the programme "Equip and Train" which is supposed under the USA control to bring the Army of the Federation, to the level of readiness equal to that of the military power of the Republic of Srpska. However, judging by the latest events in the top leadership of the Federation, the departure of Soljic and Cengic could become another bone of contention between the federal partners - the Bosniacs and the Croats. More precisely, it could cause new misunderstandings between the Party of Democratic Action and the Croatian Democratic Union, the parties whose headquarters are actually tailoring the most important decisions for the Federation.

Already at the time of signing of the Dayton Agreement, the White House undertook to arm and equip the Federation Army so as to establish arms balance in B&H. In that context several specific moves were made with the objective of integrating the HVO and the Army of B&H into a single military formation, and thus even a Joint Chief of Staff was formed. In addition, the USA saw to it that the Law on the Defence of the Federation was adopted, which both the HDZ and the SDA were unable to do for over a year. In mid June Bill Clinton announced that all the conditions have been fulfilled and that the arming of the Army could start. In the meantime, retired American generals who were to be in charge of the training, started coming to B&H.

However, when in late September the American ship the "Hurricane" started towards B&H carrying the required arms the White House dispatched to Sarajevo a message demanding an urgent removal of Hasan Cengic and Vladimir Soljic. At first the emphasis was placed on Hasan Cengic, a man who, during the war, procured arms abroad for the B&H Army, mostly illegally. He was reproached for establishing relations with the Iranian secret service and procuring arms for B&H in that country. At that same time, the American papers made it public that the White House knew about these arm shipments and did nothing to prevent them. Quite contrary, Clinton was accused of behaving benevolently towards the expansion of the Iranian domination in B&H.

Undoubtedly Clinton did not need the scandal with Iran, especially not before the presidential elections which were held in the USA at the beginning of November. This embarrassing situation was probably one of the reasons why a new ultimatum was put to the Sarajevo authorities and the dismissal of Cengic demanded. And while the parties active on the territory controlled by the B&H Army reacted rather emotionally, rebuking the White House for undermining the very sovereignty of B&H, in this whole situation the HDZ behaved rather disinterestedly, allowing all the blame to fall on Hasan Cengic. But, after Izetbegovic's public address it soon became clear that the Defence Minister would not be left holding the bag, as he "explained" that Cengic was not the center of dispute because of an "Iranian connection" but because he opposed the implementation of the Law on Defence, and that Vladimir Soljic, Defence Minister is guilty of the same wrongdoing, and that both of them have to go.

The HDZ reacted with a surprise. It claimed that there were no official requests for the removal of Soljic and the Croatian journalists claimed in their comments that this was actually an attempt of the Bosniac leadership to equally divide the blame and dismiss Soljic together with Cengic.

That was what surfaced. Behind the scenes a true political fight between the SDA and the HDZ leaders was in full swing for a much bigger stake, i.e. the overall division of functions at the level of the Federation, of which Soljic's and Cengic's resignations were but a part.

That two things were amiss was clear immediately after the constituting session of the Federal Parliament. The election of the Federation President and Vice-President was not placed on the agenda, nor the appointment of the new Prime Minister designate. And it was precisely this session that the Bosniac side waited for as an opportunity to elegantly fulfill the SDA wishes. Namely, in one of his statements Izetbegovic claimed that he had no constitutional authority to relieve the Defence Minister and his Deputy of office, and that it could be done only by the Federal Parliament. The appointment of a new Prime Minister designate was an excellent opportunity to dissolve the old Cabinet and for Soljic and Cengic to formally leave.

However, the HDZ prevented such a denouement. The leadership of this party insisted that the key functions in the Federation should be first divided and rejected the SDA's demand to be given the functions of both the President and Prime Minister of the Federation.

After his return from the Paris Conference Alija Izetbegovic was the first to make it public that apart from Soljic and Cengic, this was the reason why the arms on the "Hurricane" were still aboard. In his interview to TV B&H he said that Kresimir Zubak was not willing to put his signature on the document relieving those two of office until he received guarantees that either the President or the Prime Minister of the Federation will be a Croat. Izetbegovic indirectly accused the Croatian side of thus preventing the arming of Bosniacs and being disinterested in the "Equip and Train" programme, as it could get arms from other sources. As for the Bosniacs, they were doomed to wait for the USA aid and willing to meet all the requirements.

What was all this actually about? After the unsuccessful session of the Federal Parliament, the SDA decided to force this removal through the Office of the Federal Prime Minister Izudin Kapetanovic. He initiated a formal procedure for the removal of Cengic and Soljic and submitted a demand to that effect to Kresimir Zubak, President and Ejup Ganic, Vice-President of the Federation. And while Ganic readily signed the request, Zubak embarked on a battle of wits. In a interview to TV IN Zubak claimed that Izetbegovic had given him a principled promise that the President of the Federation would be a Croat, but later went back on his word. He accused Izetbegovic of being inconsistent and also opposed the way in which Soljic was being removed. According to him, this could be done only at the request of the HDZ, which in the first place nominated Soljic to the ministerial post, not the Prime Minister. However, that party did not make such a request.

Zubak clarified his attitude in a letter addressed to Prime Minister Izudin Kapetanovic. Refusing to sign the request for this dismissal, Zubak demanded additional explanation as to the reasons for insisting on the departure of Cengic and Soljic and of the stances of the SDA and HDZ. He also wanted to know who were Ante Jelavic and Sakib Mahmuljin, who were supposed to replace Cengic and Soljic.

Finally, President of the Federation stated that he would agree to this only if Vladimir Soljic handed his resignation himself, and that he would not insist on it. It seems that the knot was cut by Soljic with his resignation submitted to the President of the Federation with the explanation "that under the given circumstances he was unable to discharge his function as a minister".

Soljic's resignation is probably a result of the American pressure, but at the same time a way of clearing the HDZ of the blame for the delay in the realization of the personnel training programme, i.e. laying it at the door of the original culprit - the SDA. It will undoubtedly be a trump card in the coming bargaining over the division of functions in the Federation, with the HDZ which is, judging by all signs, enjoying a significant support of the international community in that political contest. The SDA must seriously reckon with this, irrespective of the fact that in removing the Defence Minister and his Deputy it finally got what it wanted.

In short, the Federation Army will get its arms. Soljic and Cengic are leaving, but judging by the local press, not far from the top power echelons. On the contrary, Soljic could be a HDZ candidate for the President of the Federation. He was nominated to that position already at the end of last year when Zubak, dissatisfied with the Dayton Agreement offered, and then withdrew, his resignation. It is speculated that Hasan Cengic will be a minister in the federal government. From such positions the two of them will be able to influence the formation of the Federation Army, and that certainly is not what the States have asked for. It is therefore to be assumed that a new dispatch will be soon coming from Washington.

Sejad LUCKIN