TURMOIL DUE TO TUDJMAN'S SICKNESS

AIM Zagreb, 17 November, 1996

Not even for four whole days was it possible to keep the secret that serious changes are taking place concerning Tudjman's health. The first news about it were very scarce, but caused a wave of guesses. On Wednesday, an extremely bleak statement arrived from the President's office which said that Tudjman was on "a short vacation during which regular consultative check-ups will be done". The statement was immediately "supplemented" by convincing indiscreet details in the lobbies that a serious ailment was in question, most probably carcinogenic, and such assumptions were cautiously confirmed by certain diplomatic circles in Zagreb.

Nevertheless there were no new information from the Office of the President of the Republic for another two days. The blockade was broken through only on Friday evening, when the CNN had on several occasions repeated the news that Tudjman was hospitalized in Washington and that the Croatian President was treated for cancer in military hospital called Walter Reed. That same evening, an hour or two later, a new statement arrived from Tudjman's office which confirmed that that the President was on additional check-ups in Washington due to digestion disorders caused by "gastric ulcer and swollen lymph nodes in the stomach". Cancer was not mentioned, but nor were agency news about it denied.

Although the statement optimistically says that Tudjman "is feeling well" and that "he will come back to the homeland towards the end of next week", there is no doubt that his health has suffered such changes which cannot pass without political implications. Croatian Constitution prescribes even the minutest details concerning early end of a mandate of the president of the Republic (which in Tudjman's case expires in summer next year). Article 97 of the Constitution reads: "In case of death, resignatiion or lasting prevention of the president of the Republic to carry out his duties, the presence of which is determined by the Constitutional Court of Croatia at proposal of the Government of the Republic of Croatia, the post of the President of the Republic is temporarily taken over by the chairman of the Croatian Assembly. Election of the new president of the Republic must take place within 60 days from the day the former president has stopped discharging his duties".

It is sufficient to have just a superficial knowledge of the political circumstances in Croatia, where one of the fundamental democratic principles has been undermined primarily thanks to Tudjman's own doing - replceability of the authorities, to understand that the quoted Article of the Constitution is a fragile guarantee of peaceful and regular transfer of power. Nowadays there is a series of examples already in the country (the case of Zagreb being the most prominent one) which show that the ruling Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) has kept local power although it had lost it in the elections, or by post-election coalitions with political rivals. In the case of the president of the Republic the question of replaceability is put forward even more drastically, because the Constitution gives this post exceptionally high authority. The one who is at this most prominent post is practically untouchable for all political rivals and competitors.

Indeed, it is impossible to completely eliminate the possibility, primarily due to a pressure exerted from abroad, that elections will be scheduled after all, and that the authorities will resort to legal change of power, if it proves that Tudjman will be prevented from carrying out his duty for prolonged period of time. It even might happen that Tudjman himself will reach such a decision in order to prevent chaos which might result from the struggle for president's post. But, for the time being in internal analyses by some of the opposition leaders the possibility of an inside party struggle within the HDZ for the post of the successor is believed to be much more probable. Moreover, there are opinions that secretly this struggle has already started and that a recently initiated campaign against illegal acquiring wealth has taken this direction. The campaign was conceived as an operation of pre-election removal of the blemishes on the reputation of the ruling HDZ after a series of scandals published in the media, and it seems to have been initiated by Tudjman himself. But it soon proved that the campaign got out of control and that it was mostly conducted at the expense of only one faction in the party, that of the so-called "techno-managers".

In order not to increase the imbalance in internal party relations, Tudjman appointed Hrvoje Sarinic the head of his presidential office again, who is known to be infinitely loyal to him but is not influenced by any of the factions. Immediately after taking over the post, Sarinic declared that the campaign against crime was not to be treated as a "purge" so that this campaign will probably remain on the level of verbal threats, and that suspending of high HDZ officials will end. However, this is probably just a short lull duration of which depends on further development of Tudjman's sickness, because Sarinic himself has no authotity for a long lull, least of all for a sound settling of affairs within the party and the state leadership.

In the obvious intention to emphasize that the situation is regular and that there are no foundations for fear of anarchy, in the statement of the President's Office in which it is admitted that Tudjman is in the USA, it is underlined that he is still "discharging his duties". A day later, the amount of optimism is increased and it is explictly denied that Tudjman could be hindered in the following months and years in the affairs of the state. This was also declared by his personal physician, Dr Branimir Jaksic, who reporting live in the central tv news program, even jokingly invited Tudjman's tennis partners to the agreed match in Zagreb. But, in the first reactions from the ranks of the opposition, it was already demanded that the Government make known the state of health of the head of the state which obviously shows the wish to induce the authorities to gradually start activating the mentioned constitutional mechanism of transfer of power.

Just as a reminder it should be said that according to the constitutional procedure, possible impossibility of the president to continue discharging his duties is determined by the Constitutional Court of Croatia at the proposal of the Government of B&H. In the Constitutional Court, majority of the judges are of moderate political stances, but insufficient political power, while in the Government the situation is, if not the opposite, definitely more complex. There is a balance of forces on the one hand of liberal politicians personified by Prime Minister Matesa but especially by foreign Minister Granic, while the hard-core faction is headed by the powerful Minister of defence Gojko Susak. He can be considered to be the leading figure of the Croatian "revolutionary right" because it is with good reason assumed that his faction would not allow regular change of forces in power in the elections. There is no doubt that in a possible clash between these two factions, chances of Susak's faction would increase as the conflict became fiercer and general circumstances more chaotic.

On the other hand, the leader of this faction is also of poor health - he has undergone a surgery of the lungs in the same American hospital where Franjo Tudjman is hospitalized in - which makes starting positions among the potential claimants of Tudjman's inheritance almost equal. Apart from that, just before leaving for the United States, Tudjman has made certain changes in the military command (colonel general Pavle Miljavac was brought to the head of the Main Staff of the Croatian Army) which are speculated by independent media to be aimed at limiting power of the too powerful Gojko Susak. But, even if that were true, these personnel shifts do not exceed the limits of former numerous personnel corrections by means of which Tudjman has so far traditionally kept the balance on the state top.

The only good move that the ailing state leader could make would be if he radically reduced authoritzations of the president of the Republic and thus reduced pressure and struggle for the post. But, for the time being, there is no such move in sight, nor has there been any indication that there might be one.

MARINKO CULIC