MILOSEVIC KEEPING PEACE AT HOME

Elections in FRY

AIM Belgrade, 9 November 1996

When in just a little over a month, all the "statements of the week" neatly registered and noted by many journals in FR of Yugoslavia are collected, the one made by the spokesman of the Serb Renewal Movement (SPO), Dr Ivan Kovacevic might just be the one to earn the title of the "statement of the year". Two days after publication of election results for the Federal Assembly of the FRY in which the coalition "Together" (SPO, Democratic Party /DS/, Democratic Party of Serbia /DSS/ and Civic Alliance of Serbia /GSS/) experienced a fiasco and instead of the planned forty odd won only 22 seats, at a press conference Kovacevic claimed that this was in fact a success of the opposition "because it had not permitted the left coalition to win two-thirds majority". To make things even worse, Kovacevic was quite serious about it. Contrary to the spokesman of the SPO, his party colleague, aphoristic Aleksandar Baljak, was incomparably more self-critical when he humorously remarked that "the victory (also of coalition 'Together') did not yield expected results". For who knows how many times in a row.

On the other hand, in the coalition of left forces (Socialist Party of Serbia /SPS/, Yugoslav United Left /JUL/ and New Democracy /ND/), the victory seems to have yielded exactly the results which had been expected. In the end of August, at a closed session the leadership of SPS projected its election goal and concluded that the Serb Socialists, together with the Montenegrins, in the Chamber of Citizens of the Federal Assembly, out of 138, needed about 80 seats. This figure was considered at the time as quite sufficient for normal operation of the federal government. When in the beginning of September, former governor of the National Bank of Yugoslavia, Dr Dragoslav Avramovic entered the election game on the side of the coalition "Together", top echelons of the SPS were just for a moment struck with fear that this plan would have to be changed and reduced. Instead of changing the plan, however, "grandpa Avram" was removed, forced to withdraw and drop out of politics under considerably unclarified circumstances. That is how in the elections which took place on 3 November, in the end everything turned out as primarily planned: Serbian Socialists in coalition with the JUL and the ND won 64 seats, which with 20 mandates secured by the Socialists of Montenegro (DPS) sums up to more than the wished for total of 84 seats and a comfortable majority in the Federal Parliament.

Immediately after publication of the election results and awareness that in the new parliament there will also be 16 Seselj's Radicals, eight members of Kilibarda's National Party of Montenegro, three representatives of Voivodina Hungarians, two members of the coalition "Voivodina" and one each of the List for Sandzak and the SDA, speculations began if it was sufficient for the left side to have "only" 84 seats to control the parliament. In all these calculations, "quota of 93" was mentioned, which is two-thirds majority, necessary for the amendment of the existing Constitution of the FRY. Those who got involved in such calculations started from the fact that the mandate of the President of Serbia would end next year and that it was time for him to find an adequate, leading position on the federal level for himself. The post of the President of the FRY has been reduced to mere protocol and is by no means made to measure of the Serbian President who is used to directing everybody around him by mere signs of his forefinger. That is why it was expected that right after the elections, the left coalition would try to bargain with someone from the opposition. Primarily with those who could "lend" it nine seats in the parliament and in this way enable creators of the constitution to adjust the new constitution and the presidential office to the portrait of Slobodan Milosevic. A part of the Belgrade political connoisseurs started making guesses who could be the first from among the opposition to give in and sell out for a few ministerial and ambassadors' sinecures.

It soon turned out that the "quota of 93", i.e. the two-thirds majority, was harder to attain than believed at first. Not so much because there is noone in the opposition who would join the left coalition, but because of the refusal of the Montenegrins to change anything in the existing Constitution. In an interview given to Associated Press after the elections, any such possibility was resolutely denied by Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic, who claimed that Milosevic could be the president of the FRY if he wished, but only the same as Zoran Lilic. And this means not to meddle much with his own job.

Discussions about two-thirds majority and amendment of the Constitution died down immediately after that. It turned out that when he comes to the end of the Serbian ruler's chess table, Milosevic can easily turn into another figure, for example, that of the federal prime minister which is not so insignificant after all. Indeed, whatever post he may take (be it even that of a doorman of the federal government), Slobodan Milosevic will be the true ruler of new Yugoslavia and it is not necessary to amend the Constitution for him to do it.

Some of the analysts of the political circumstances, like Dr Vladimir Goati from Belgrade Institute of Social Sciences, warn that the convincing victory of the left coalition in the elections for the federal parliament, nevertheless, conveys certain unpredictable inconveniences. When after the initial intoxination with the victory, performance of the individual partners in the winning coalition were analyzed, it was established that the share of JUL and ND was almost insignificant (according to many assessments it did not exceed five per cent of the total number of votes they had won). The Socialists who practically deserve all the merit for the victory (won in fact mostly thanks to the name of Slobodan Milosevic), are gradually starting to grumble because of the announcements that JUL might be given about twenty out of the 64 seats won by the left coalition in the federal parliament. This practically means that many prominent Socialists would have to renounce their deputy seats for the benefit of members of the JUL.

Despite almost "drunken superlatives" the JUL describes its own success with, the actual measure of "success" of this political organization can be assessed by looking into results of the first election round on the local level. In local elections, the JUL mostly ran on its own. Only 5.22 per cent of the candidates of the Yugoslav Left managed to make it to the second round which is a very good result if compared with the results of New Democracy whose participation in the second round of local elections will amount to symbolic 0.15 per cent. If at the same time one bears in mind everything that was spent in the past six months on promotion of JUL in state-controlled media, one can rightfully call it a very bad political investment. On the political map of Montenegro, the JUL has remained a completely unknown concept, while in Serbia (if Lebane and a few small places in the south), it will not have the majority in municipal assemblies of the biggest industrial cities, where true leftists ought to have had its significant strongholds. The JUL will indeed be in the federal parliament where it would not have made it if Slobodan Milosevic had not decided to keep peace in his own home.

And while the JUL, thanks to "generosity" of the Socialists, has a screen behind which it can hide its fiasco, the coalition "Together" cannot do it even with the wisdom acquired after the elections that under unequal media conditions it should not have run in the elections at all. Media conditions were really worse than ever, but inside the coalition a lot of things did not go smoothly from the very beginning. The four parties united on the federal level, but on the local level they just got into each other's way; the opposition leaders with their quarrels confused a considerable number of voters; the "I will, I will not" of former governor Avramovic convinced many that it was "smarter" to remain at home than give a vote to the opposition which is not capable of even finding a leader and a person who would personify it. It all summed up to 450 thousand votes less than the sum of individual results the SPO, DS, DSS and GSS had won in 1993 elections. This failure, of course, does not mean that some party leaders will withdraw and start writing their memoirs before they had intended to. Most of them, despite the fifth consecutive defeat against Milosevic do not consider themselves to be "shaken up" politicians, nor think about offering their mandates to their membership. Things can somewhat be improved on 17 November when the second round of local elections is scheduled. But if nothing happens then and the opposition remains without power in many Serbian municipalities, next year, after these fifth, there will be the sixth elections in a row. And then again, "to be or not to be", after which as usual nothing happens.

The fiasco of the coalition "Together" launched Radicals of Vojislav Seselj to the position of the most powerful opposition party. At the moment when many forecast new "deradicalization" of the political scene in Serbia (initiated in 1993 elections), and when Seselj was in advance believed to be the possible victim of the changed election system, the leader of the Radicals and his supporters showed that about 18 per cent of the votes belonged to them. In the first analyses after the elections, success of the Radicals was interpreted, among other, as Milosevic's paying the price for Dayton. Seselj's success shows, however, that his persistence on national issues which all the others (headed by Milosevic) have abandoned a long time ago, is still quite a profitable political business which can offer in Serbia more than parties of the similar profile (Lepain and Zhyrinovsky, for instance) can get in France of Russia.

Encouraged by this success, Seselj seems to have made up his mind to go even further, so that on the eve of the second round of the local elections rumour has started from among some opposition parties that the leader of Radicals is allegedly offering Djindjic and Draskovic "agreement on cooperation" demanding that "Together" support him in running for the first opposition mayor of Belgraede. In return, followers of the Radicals would support the coalition "Together" in the second round and assist it in winning power in many municipalities. Even without this assistance, victory in many cities of Serbia is practically within reach of the Coalition "Together", where until yesterday it seemed that nobody could threaten the Socialists. But in order to take over power in Belgrade, Nis, Kragujevac, Uzice, Cacak, Cuprija, Valjevo and other places where after the first round the coalition "Together" has won better results than the coalition of left parties or the lonely Socialists, it is necessary to convince voters to go to the polls again on 17 November. Last time, for example, in Belgrade, after the first round, the opposition was in the lead in 12 out of 16 municipalities, but in the end won power only in five. It also happened then that many potential opposition voters, disappointed by the election failure on the higher level, lost motivation to go to the polls and vote for changes at least in their own neighbourhood. This time something similar is happening. Healing their wounds from the defeat in the elections for the federal parliament, the opposition parties have already quite lightly squandered a few days of the campaign for the second round, and allowed the Socialists to take the initiative again. It is also obvious that the opposition has never had less money for the campaign than in these elections. The parties which used to spend between 750 and 800 thousand German marks on elections, now had three times less money at the most. Many finaciers were in the meantime dispelled, and some of them were forced to join parties which are close to the authorities.

Only after the battle for power in many cities of Serbia ends will it be possible to claim with certainty to what extent the left forces have really won the elections or to what extent the coalition "Together" is really defeated. Taking power in several largest cities in Serbia, if it will not be abused and if it does not come up to nothing but greed (as deja vu in some places), could bring a lot to the opposition: it would show that the Socialists can sometimes and somewhere lose power; from the position of local power-holders it is easier to build "party infrastructure" and a network of activists by means of which elections are won; many local media which are now controlled by the Socialist authorities would be freed. They are especially aware of the latter possibility in Belgrade, where the authorities seem to be in a hurry to find a new owner for TV Studio B instead of the City Assembly, before the outcome of the second round of the elections becomes known. In case the expected victory of the coalition SPS-JUL in Belgrade "fails to yield expected results", this tv station would be preserved, that is it would belong to firms and individuals who would guard it as a spare program of state television.

(AIM) Nenad Lj. Stefanovic

ENTREFILET

IN - OUT

The just held elections showed what is, in the political sense of the word, out of fashion this autumn, and what is in. The first thing that is OUT on the list is certainly Dr Radoman Bozovic, the former chairman of the Chamber of Citizens of the Federal Assembly and one of the leaders of the so-called "anti-bureaucratic revolution", its "yoghurt" variant which brought Milosevic to power in Voivodina. In Novi Sad election unit, Bozovic did not manage to win and be re-elected to the Federal Assembly. Two Vice Prime Ministers of the Serbian Government, Slobodan Radulovic and Svetozar Krstic, both from New Democracy, are also OUT. Radulovic who is at the same time the manager of a chain of supermarkets called C-Markets and who has obviously spent a lot of money on his campaign, did not even manage to get into the second round in the elections for a councillor in the City of Belgrade Assembly. It seems that Aleksandar Vujin, spokesman of the JUL who has also not made it in the elections is also OUT, but he promptly decided that he was not interested in politics any more, because it was an occupation for young people. The Party of Serb Unity (President Zeljko Raznatovic Arkan) is also OUT, since it won the total of 4950 votes, much less than for instance the New Communist Party of Yugoslavia. Similar could be said about the Democratic Community of Voivodina Hungarians of Andras Agoston which won half of the votes won by the Alliance of Voivodina Hungarians.

The newly established coalition "Voivodina" which has managed to get two seats in the Chamber of Citizens of the Federal Assembly practically at its first appearance is obviously IN. Among the individuals, Mayor of Belgrade, Nebojsa Covic is still IN (best result in the first round) and Dr Vojislav Seselj who will, it seems, sit in all the assemblies from the municipal to the federal. The Party of Natural Law is obviously also IN, since it won 11856 votes.