YUGOSLAV THEATRE OF ABSURDITY

Investigation: Illusive Public Opinion

While in the normal, civilized world, elections are a means to articulate discontent and legitimize it by change of authorities, a paradox is happening in FRY: investigations confirm that public opinion assesses the current system as very bad, but a large number of citizens is nevertheless ready to vote for the ruling party

AIM Belgrade, 31 October, 1996.

What happens to a country and citizens of a country who have stopped hoping or have very little hope? What happens to a country and its citizens turned more to the past than the present? What happens to a public opinion which largely votes in favour of the party which is the editor-in-chief of the bad situation they are in, and which that public is highly dissatisfied with? Where are and in what direction are the citizens going with so much discord in their system of values, so many contradictions, citizens who are trying to harmonize things which are incompatible, citizens who are partly democrats and partly totalitarians?

These are only some of the questions which have remained open after the latests public opinion poll of the Institute of Social Sciences in Belgrade. Discord between discontent with the system and offering support to that same regime are at the same time a real challenge for analysts of the local social reality, the investigators concluded.

It so happened that during the past week, two investigations of the mentioned Centre were presented to the Yugoslav public: one that was published in May this year (conducted by interviewing two thousand subjects in FRY, Kosovo and Metohija excluded) which resulted in a study titled Legitimacy of the Political System and the system of Values of the Citizens of Yugoslavia, and the other which is the customary election probing on the eve of this year's federal and local elections.

"Election Probing '96" (an opinion poll carried out between 5 and 15 October this year on a sample of 1520 pollees with the exception of citizens of Albanian nationality) forecasts that 61 per cent of the voters will go to the polls, and 39 per cent will abstain. In relation to the whole electorate the following will be the results: 27.3 per cent of the electorate will give their votes to the left coalition, 18.3 to the coalition "Together", 6.4 to the Radicals, 7.1 per cent to other parties, and 1.9 per cent of the votes will be invalid.

In reference to those who will vote, 45 per cent will choose the so-called left block, 30 the coalition "Together", 10.5 will vote for the Radicals, 11.5 per cent for the other parties, and there will be three per cent of invalid ballots. This forecast just confirmed previous findings of investigators that the ruling party might win these elections again, although it is paradoxical when compared with the results of the investigation on Legitimacy of the Political System and the System of Values of Citizens of Yugoslavia, in which two thousand subjects replied to questions concerning their attitude to the existing system, efficiency of the system, alternatives to this system, questions on democracy, nationalism, and the results of which confirmed that Yugoslavs are greatly confused.

The Worse the Present - The Better the Past

According to the findings of this investigation, 54 per cent of the citizens of Serbia are dissatisfied with their lives, and negative feelings (concern, fear, indifference, passiveness, wrath, anger, despair, helplessness...) mark 63 per cent of citizens of Serbia and 47 per cent of citizens of Montenegro. "Positive feelings" (belief that soon difficulties will be overcome and readiness for action) characterizes 28 per cent of citizens of Serbia and 42 per cent of the citizens of Montenegro. Investigators say: the present is becoming worse, the past is getting better, and there is no future.

Public opinion of FRY assesses the present system or the present in general as bad. This conclusion was reached after an analysis of replies to the questions on the economy, political system, freedom of thought, protection against crime and lawlessness, social security... For instance, 57 per cent of the citizens have a repulsive attitude towards the present system, while a little above 40 per cent accept it but to a minor extent (for only two per cent of the citizens of Yugoslavia the system is mostly good). Contrary to the gloomy present and future which can hardly be discerned (two thirds cannot look into the future at all and assess it), the percentage of those who gladly remember the past is growing. More than half of the citizens (55 per cent) believe that the period of "Titoism" was good, one third thinks it was partly good, and only five per cent believe that the past was bad.

The graffito saying "The Locksmith (Tito) was Better" which adorned Belgrade walls for years, obviously was not just the result of somebody's wit. However, although the citizens are turned back to the past, only 15 per cent of the citizens of Serbia and 21 per cent of citizens of Montenegro would accept revival of communism. Monarchy is the alternative to the current system which appears very rarely. This concept is acceptable for 14 per cent of the citizens of Serbia and only three per cent of the ciztizens of Montenegro. For 11 per cent of citizens of Serbia and six per cent of those in Montenegro, the solution would be for the army to take over control of the country. A "leader with a stroke of genius" is the solution for 28 per cent of citizens of Serbia and 27 per cent of those in Montenegro. The only alternative to the existing system which is acceptable for citizens of all post-communist countries is overtaking of the economy by experts: this opinion is shared by 83 per cent citizens of Montenegro, and 76 in Serbia. In other words, a government of experts.

The new age has brought more freedom of religion (56 per cent) and thought (38 per cent), but, Yugoslavs believe, it has deprived them of everything else: safety of jobs, social security, national equality, protection against crime.

Crisis of Legitimacy

Results of the investigation suggest a conclusion that the regime in Serbia and its institutions are facing a crisis of legitimacy expressed by open lack of confidence of the majority part of the public opinion - as opposed to the regime in Montenegro where the public opinion is divided, but confidence in key institutions of the system still prevail. Only the army, the church, the schooling and health system, and the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts enjoy more confidence than distrust. Schooling and health system enjoy most confidence. They are the only categories which in reference to the '94 investigation have an increase of confidence of the public. The church follows with 54 per cent, and least of all confidence is given to the parties (18 per cent), new trade unions and the NATO (15 per cent each). There are 41 per cent of the citizens who have confidence in the President of Serbia, and the same percentage has no confidence in him, while political parties, as mentioned, enjoy just a few per cent more confidence that the new trade unions and the NATO. For the regime in Montenegro it is significant that among institutions which enjoy confidence are all republican institutions (the President of the Republic enjoys confidence of 60 per cent, the republican Government of 56, and the parliament of 53 per cent of the citizens).

Individual human rights, according to the feeling of the citizens of Montenegro, are quite protected (this is the opinion of 45 per cent, as opposed to 35 per cent of those who do not share this opinion). In Serbia this assessment is even

• it is equally believed that they are protected and that they are not. It is different with the attitude of the citizens to the collectivity: only 11 per cent of the citizens do not agree with the statement that "interests of the entire nation must be above all separate interests", and 89 per cent agree with it.

Pride in one's country is almost a classical indicator of legitimacy. Half of the citizens of Serbia say that they are proud of Yugoslavia, and 38 per cent say they are not. In reference to '94, this is a slight reduction of pride. Citizens of Montenegro are slightly more proud - 59 per cent of those who are proud in relation to 31 per cent of those who are not, but a decline from 64 to 59 should be mentioned concerning this. In the '94 investigation, a much higher pride with the nation was registered: 89 per cent of the Montenegrins are proud of the fact that they are Montenegrins, while this percentage amounted to 79 with the Serbs. Such findings imply, the investigators say, that the citizens would express greater pride with a "nation-state" than with a multi-ethnic state.

Both Democrats and Totalitarians

In the sphere of values, majority of citizens are democratically oriented (61 per cent), but there is also a considerable number of those whose stances are mixed. The number of pollees who are confused about many categories is not negligible either. Acceptance of contradictory system of values is characteristic of many citizens. Among democratically oriented citizens there are twenty odd per cent of those who are inclined towards authoritarianism, about ten per cent of those who favour totalitarianism, as well as a significant percentage of those who do not tell the difference between the concepts of totalitarian and non-totalitarian or authoritarian and non-authoritarian. It is interesting that democracy, liberalism and the mentioned concepts have the lowest status with the ruling political party. Twenty three per cent of supporters of the coalition SPS-JUL-ND is not democratically oriented, and in the opposition coalition "Together" their share is two per cent. Fourteen per cent of the Radicals cannot be included among democracy lovers.

Half of the citizens of FRY can be said to be open to the world, but not to their neighbours. The status of the least accepted nation was taken over from the Albanians by the Muslims (62 per cent of the subjects have an unfavourable opinion about them), the Croats follow (59), and the Albanians hold the third position, because "only" 55 per cent of the subjects are intolerant towards them. These findings confirm the conclusion determined two years ago: the Serbs are comparatively intolerant and repulsive to a number of nations, which points out to xenophobia. Based on the total distribution of the system and degree of rejection of certain nations, index of xenophobia was established. According to this measure, half of the citizens (48) can be classified into the category of those who are moderately xenophobic or with "mixed feelings" (latent xenophobia); about one third of citizens (36 per cent) show signs of xenophobia, while "openness" to others, or absence of xenophobia is evident in only about one sixth of the citizens (16 per cent).

Dominant feelings of the pollees are fear, hopelessness, and half of the citizens believe that in this country "things are going badly", only eight per cent of the citizens claim that the political system operates well, and as many as 76 per cent believe that time has come for changes (out of which 24 per cent are in favour of radical changes, and 52 of gradual improvements of the society through reforms).

"In the Institute of Social Sciences, I have learnt that public opinion is contradictory and very often forgetful", Dr Vladimir Goati mentions. "In the West, for example, you will see that the public opinion is in favour of increase of employment in military industries, but at the same time also in favour of disarmament. One should not be surprised, therefore, that contradictory stances are present here as well. The power-holder accordingly changes the legitimation basis. But the problem is not that the power-holder changes the legitimation basis (as it happened here in '93), but that it is so readily accepted. I tend to believe that the public opinion would accept a new change of legitimation basis because it continues to be linked to a person. What disturbs me much more is that the pronounced lack of trust in political institutions is repeated".

Professor Milan Podunavac thinks that the regime which is not capable of longterm mobilisation of support within the system cannot be reproduced as stable. But, this system has proved a long time ago that it replaced lack of legitimation very transparently by increased repression.

Dr Zagorka Golubovic stresses that this investigation, nevertheless, shows that significant changes have occurred - increase of discontent and increase of the wish for changes, although it is not clear what kind of changes the public longs for. Ambivalence is evident, but state of anomie is also highly expressed. Dragoljub Micunovic, in his reference to the investigation, stresses that a great collapse of the system of values occurred, but that the society in fact lives in the past which is offered as the future, the old system has not been deprived of legitimacy, but on the contrary is presented nowadays as the new one. Confusion will last until this discontinuity is not brought about. Nebojsa Popov stresses that a study of production of ideological legitimation should be initiated, as well as production of lies, in order to avoid the trap in which legitimacy of the authorities is drawn from the system of values of the pollees. "Then we will have less paradox and we will not have the impression that we have turned into a theatre of absurdity".

Ordinary people around here, as the findings of the investigation show, mostly do not understand why something they are expected to endure has happebned to them, but do not hope for the better either. Can the people who have from experience conceived the wisdom that "he conquers who endures" and who consider the very thought of changes to be a blasphemy, be expected to do anything more but merely give in to their wretched destiny?

(AIM) Vesna Bjekic