CLEANING HOUSE

Initial Election Results in Montenegro

AIM Podgorica, 4 November, 1996

That miracles do not happen often is best confirmed by the initial results of yesterday's election in Montenegro. Contrary to high hopes of the opposition and the entire democratic public that, after six years, absolute power of the ruling Socialists would, if not be overthrown, then at least reduced to a tolerable relative majority, Bulatovic's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) triumphed, even with a larger majority than in the previous '92 elections. According to the initial, unofficial data published today, based on 92 per cent of the counted ballots, the DPS has won 45 seats, or 63 per cent of the future republican parliament which will have 71 deputies. The main rival of the ruling party, coalition National Harmony, remains where it has been so far - with 19 deputies or 27 per cent of the seats in the Assembly. The remaining seats were won by parties which represent, as nicely put around here, ethnic groups - the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) will have three deputies according to votes of its Muslims-Bosniacs, and the Albanians divided their votes between their two parties - the Democratic Union and the Democratic Alliance which will have two seats each in the parliament of Montenegro.

If data are observed from the aspect of electoral units, and there were 14 of them, it can be established that the ruling party profitted even above its own expectations in Podgorica, Bar, Bijelo Polje and Rozaje. In the capital, which, being the largest electoral unit, brought a quarter of the total number of seats, the DPS took 12 and the coalition National Harmony only five. Similar is the case in the so far opposition Bar - the number of votes won by the DPS over there in comparison with the last elections has increased by almost 30 per cent, which has along with the new election law given local administration in this town back to this party. Perhaps the buggest surprise of these elections are results from Bijelo Polje and Rozaje where the DPS has also triumphed, having receieved even more votes than the national Party of Democratic Action. It sounds paradoxical, but it is true - in the elections before these, the DPS fared much worse than yesterday, although in 1992, the SDA had boycotted the elections. The ruling party can be dissatisfied or caught unprepared only by the results in Niksic, although it won majority of votes there too. This city was its firmest stronghold in the past few years, and now, out of the total of nine deputies from it, the opposition will have four.

All these results which late last night, after arrival of the first reports from the polling stations, announced a new victory of the DPS, caused an eruption of exaltation among Bulatovic's Socialists, which is logical, because these elections were not resolving only the issue of their power but also the issue of responsibility for the policy pursued by this party in the two previous mandates. That is why in the initial public statements of leaders of the DPS, especially those of Bulatovic and Marovic, great relief was evident, so that contrary to the election campaign during which they had been spitting fire at their main rivals, Kilibarda and Perovic, they declared that they were happy that everything had passed so well, fair and free, and that the people had known who to choose. Prime Minister Djukanovic could not be so democratically refined in his statement, so he threatened, but not the opposition, but unbelievers in his own ranks - all those under the umbrella of the DPS, he said, who had supported its political opponents, would have to leave.

Disappointed leaders of the opposition have not given statements yet. Their forecasts that they would seriously shake up the DPS, that they would even "kick them out", proved to be unrealistic. Nothing was of any help, not even reconciliation between previously irreconcilable Montenegrins, the "Greens" and the "Whites", partisans and Chetniks, nor the big campaign during which they toured the whole of Montenegro, nor the often overcrowded halls and city squares - the National Harmony won insignificantly more votes that its two constituents - the Liberal Alliance and the National Party - had won in the previous elections. It proved that the electorate could not recognize and accept their indeed civilized messages, and it was reconfirmed that an average voter in this space has difficulties making his mind up for changes. Propagandist slogan of the ruling party "With Certainty" simply seduced the voters and, in comparison with '92 elections, they gave almost 30 thousand more votes to the DPS. Analysis of results shows that, as even President Bulatovic observed, the electorate integrated and formed two strong and large political forces, the DPS and the National Harmony. The Social Democratic Party, which had representatives in the parliament in the last two mandates, came away empty-handed. Their independent and consistent way of doing things did not prove to be a wise one. The whole Serb nationalistic block experienced the same destiny - both Seselj's and Arkan's supporters remained outside the parliament, which is not especially tragic for the latter, since his primary goal was to contribute, by abusing the opposition, to a convincing victory of his bosses from the ranks of the authorities. Authentic communists resurrected after the new 15th Congress of the Central Committee, also failed to impose themselves as a serious political party. It turned out therefore, that the disappointed Serbs, true or false communists, a large portion of the Muslims - they were all expected to vote for "their" parties - actually voted for the ruling Socialists and unexpectedly gave them great advantage.

Final and official results of the elections in Montenegro will be known on Wednesday. Very soon, however, it will be clear in what direction the new-old authorities will be leading this republic in the course of the next four years. After cleaning its own house, as announced by Prime Minister Djukanovic, the ruling party will have to decide - whether it will continue and direct the purge towards the opposition too, or whether, once "purged" they will try to wash off results of their former actions and move things in a more normal, perhaps it is exaggerated to say, democratic direction.

Zeljko Ivanovic AIM Podgorica