BERISHA WINNING, OPPOSITION ON THE VERGE OF CAPITULATION

Local Elections in Albania

AIM Tirana, 25 October, 1996

Followed with unusual international attention and equally unusual indifference of the Albanians, Sunday local elections in Albania inaugurated the Democratic Party and President Berisha as the winners. Although official results have not been publicized yet, the ruling Democratic Party seems to have won more than 60 per cent of the votes, and along with this result it also got confirmation of foreign observers that the "elections were honest and correct".

At a press conference in Tirana, Berisha told the journalists that "20 October is full condirmation of 26 May", referring to the controversial May elections which were criticised by foreign observers for numerous irregularities, criticism which the Albanian leaders has never accepted. Considered to be a test or a trial for Albanian democracy, the latest local elections seem also to be a test which confirmed Berisha's victory. "The Albanians have once again confirmed with their votes what had happened on 26 May and I am proud because of that", said Berisha.

On the other hand, total collapse is evident in the opposition camp. The so far publicized figures speak about a heavy and unexpected defeat. The Socialists who had controlled more than half of the local authorities in the country, got only six per cent, while in the second round they will have to run in about 20 polling districts. Commenting on the results, a political analyst in Tirana, just a day after the elections, wrote that "after Sunday, there is practically no opposition in the country". The opposition is not in the parliament any more, since it has boycotted it ever since the elections in May, and it is practically not in the local authorities any more either, half of which it had controlled for the past four years.

The initial unofficial results, as well as the expected second round of voting, speak in favour of the fact that Albania is moving towards establishment of a two-party regime. Although 22 parties have participated in the elections, two large parties have managed to take control of almost all local authorities, which illustrates extreme polarization of the electorate. Even the Party for Human Rights of the Greek minority has lost control over majority of municipalities in the region mostly populated by the Greek minority. Perhaps this could be explained by the failure of the Albanian emigrants who work in Greece to come to vote.

And while Berisha and his political group, after its victory won on Sunday, are looking for their lost image, the opposition is stubbornly insisting on the fact that the latest elections have been neither free nor just. In their initial statements, Socialist leaders evaluated the 20 October elections as a "continuation of the big deception of 26 May". They claim that, even though the voting process has peacefully passed during the day, in the evening, on 20 October, groups and gangs of armed men threatened and acted violently in voring posts. "In these elections, we did not have the Democratic Party as the opponent, but the Albanian state with all its instruments", said Secretary General of the Socialist Party, Redxhep Meidani. The Socialists made it clear that it was an open question for them whether they would recognize the election results, although they had informed that they would participate in the second round of voting next Sunday.

However, while in the May elections, arguments of the opposition on manipulations and deceptions were supported by many foreign observers, Sunday elections were marked with a favourable mark by over 300 present observers. Observers of the Council of Europe and a number of other countries, confirmed that the elections passed peacefully and correctly and that certain observered irregularities do not diminish their legitimacy. "Generally speaking, the elections were free and just", said Mr. Ferraris, special envoy of the foreign Minister of Italy, who headed a large group of 150 observers, which Italy had sent to its neighbour across the Adriatic.

The latest elections, although they were the best observed elections ever scheduled in Albania, will be remembered by absence of OSCE observers who withdrew after a misunderstanding with the Albanian officials when the latter demanded limitation of the number of ODHIR observers - branches of this organization for free elections and democratic institutions. The Albanian decision caused a crisis in the relations between the Albanian Government and the OSCE which in protest withdrew the observers of the Parliamentary Assembly, which is an unprecedented case in the histiry of this organization. At his press conference, Berisha tried to minimize the conflict, defining it as a conflict not with the OSCE, but only with one of its branches: the ODHIR which, according to him, proved to be biased and unobjective concerning May elections. Although signature of the OSCE will be lacking on confirmation of these elections, signatures of the Council of Europe, American Republican and Democratic Institutes and especially, signatures of teams of observers of western embassies will be a significant compensation for it. It is clear that Berisha is interested in the victory on Sunday not only because of the posts of mayors or presidents of the municipalities which he had won, but because it can be a successfully passed test or removal of the dark shadow cast on 26 May. Confirmation of free elections will, to say the least, neutralize the bad impression created by withdrawal of the OSCE. In these conditions, softening of the stance of the West can be expected to take place in relation to the stubborn Albanian leader, who has the custom to believe himself more than the others. American formula "Free Local Elections - New Constitution - New General Elections" has been effectuated in its first part. The second step is expected to be realized by adoption of the new Constitution, which for the time being is not a very serious obstacle. If adoption of the Constitution takes place next year, it is clear that the question of new parliamentary elections will be further postponed.

Defeat of the opposition which is currently shattered can be considered to be the result of Sunday elections, more than Berisha's victory. Low percentage of participation at the latest voting (it is assessed that the response was by 25 per cent lower than in May), without doubt was a sign of inconfidence towards the opposition which led a very lukewarm election campaign based only on criticism of Berisha or the merits of partisans from the Second World War. "In clashes with the opposition, Berisha resembles a tank facing a handful of people armed with spears and arrows", writes the independent daily KOHA JONE in its commentary after the elections. It should not ne forgotten that in the elections on May 26 the opposition was united and strong, and that in the local elections it appeared monotonous and split. While the Democrats skilfully used even threats which the IMF addressed to them to their benefit, the Socialists repeated stale lectures on corruption and garbage in Tirana.

Socialist opposition spent a lot of energy and power on internal struggle, often in the same style which Berisha used against them, which resulted in disappointment of their faithful sympathizers. Although it too had set out with the slogan that the local elections would be a test for Albanian democracy, it had done practically nothing to do well in the test. More than in villages of Albania, its election campaign was conducted in the Council of Europe and foreign embassies in Tirana. But in fact, it was not hard to see that, in spite of sharp criticism addressed at Berisha because of the elections on 26 May, Western institutions were careful not to encourage the Socialists who were observed and still are with certain prejudice. A Western diplomat who asked to remain unanimous said that it was "clear that Berisha's errors are not merits of the Socialists and the opposition in general".

What can be expected is that 26 May will remain in the political vocabulary of the opposition a synonym for the day of great deception, but 20 October in the political vocabulaty of the authorities will be the day of great triumph. It is not certain until when this game with dates and calendars will go on. But it is certain that now the strong man of Albania has everything he needs, even an opposition below 10 per cent.

Remzi LANI AIM Tirana