OPPOSITION COALITION IS FALLING APART

AIM Zagreb, 21 October 1996

It seems that the Zagreb crisis is finally facing a denouement. What the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) could not achieve for months, has nowadys started to happen: opposition deputies are gradually leaving the opposition coalition. That is how the two-thirds majority won by the opposition in the elections last autumn is slowly melting away, and in the HDZ they claim that it does not even exist any more. Scenario which is now publicly announced from the ranks of the ruling party is convening of the session of the City Assembly and removal of the Chairman of the Assembly Zdravko Tomac, and election of its man for the post which caused the conflict - the mayor.

Convening of the session is prevented by a defensive measure introduced by the opposition, which had probably assumed in advance that such a development would take place. Members of the coalition decided a few days ago to put madates of opposition deputies on ice for a month, that is, to suspend all activities in the City and the District Assembly. Officially, this was done out of protest because conditions set by the opposition to the Government in the second half of September concerning resolution of the crisis have not been met yet, nor the demand that these same conditions be set to the Republican Assembly. Unofficially, this move has other motives too, primarily to avoid convening of the City Assembly. It is assumed that several opposition deputies, nobody knows either their number of their names, have made secret arrangement with the HDZ. If it manages to convene a session of the Assembly, they will have to appear at the session and reveal their identity and take the risk of being accused of "treason" by their voters.

Melting down of the majority of opposition deputies started by the split between Josip Manolic and Stipe Mesic and rapprochement of the first with Tudjman, which at first shook up the party of Croatian Independent Democrats (HND). Two deputies of the HND, which was formed when Mesic and Manolic left HDZ two and a half years ago, immediately re-activated their mandates, and then they were joined by a deputy from the Croatian National Party and an independent deputy. They form the core of "turncoats" and there should be eight of them in order to deprive the opposition of its large majority and enable the HDZ to carry out resolution of the crisis according to its scenario. In the coalition they claim that these deputies are overwhelmed by attractive offers from the HDZ (high posts, business premises, etc.), but also by threats, which means that a part of them are bribed and the other part is blackmailed.

Nevertheless, these deputies still do not dare to join the HDZ openly, and it seems that the ruling party does not wish that either, in order to create the impression that the coalition is falling apart by itself and in order to convince the foreign observers that it is an internal problem of Croatian parties, and therefore of the Croatian state. According to certain assessments which accompanied Croatia's becoming a member of the Councuil of Europe last week, the Zagreb crisis has lately been experienced as such, which means that the Council of Europe is far from election principles it advocated a few years ago. On the other hand, opposition parties have themselves given rise to such behavior, because for months they have agreed to the chess stalemate position in Zagreb, without any will to include voters into the dispute who had last autumn enabled their large majority in the city assembly.

Although things started to go badly for the coalition before this summer, developments accelerated after summer vacations, and the first brick was pulled out when Dobroslav Paraga was excommunicated from the coalition, that is, his Croatian Party of Right (HSP) 1861. This was done after this party was left without its only deputy in the Assembly, but Paraga himself claims that he was removed because he had been the only really radical critic of the HDZ and that he started being in the way of the coalition, primarily of the Chairman of the Assembly, Zdravko Tomac.

The second brick from what used to be a monolithic wall was removed when Josip Manolic stepped out of the coalition, this time for reasons contrary to those of Paraga, since he believes that it is unnecessarily doing things just to spite the HDZ concerning the post of the mayor. He asked that this post be given to Tudjman's party, and that in return the opposition should demand an increased share in other city offices. It seemed to be a question of tactical proposals just for a short while, because Manolic soon presented an integral plan of new relations with the HDZ the fundamental starting point of which was that there was a "reformist" faction in it.

This is, according to Manolic, the creative political core of the country, which deserves the assistance of the opposition, which is again still too powerless to win power, in overcoming the radical, pro-Ustashe right faction in the ruling party. "I am always on the side of Tudjman when survival of Croatia is at stake" - is his dramatic statement which obviously means that according to him neutralization of these radical elements is a question of "to be or not to be" for Crtoatia. At the same time, however, Manolic has excluded the opposition from the active political role and offers it solely the "infantry" role of support to moderate, pro-European parts of the HDZ. This practically elimintes all prospects of any alternative to the official policy and verifies its mandate for an unlimited time in the future.

The third brick is just on the point of being pulled out from the coalition, and it is the Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS). It partly uses the same arguments as Paraga, but with a lot of indications that its ultimate motives are contrary and in fact close to those of Manolic. Going along the line of Drazen Budisa's statement that he was "fed up" with the coalition, which proved to be his individual stance not supported by Budisa's party (HSLS), President of the HSS Zlatko Tomcic gave a similar statement. He said that he was fed up with such an inefficient coalition which permits the crisis to extend over months, instead to interrupt it by collective resignation of all opposition deputies. He also accused Zdravko Tomac and his party (Social Democratic Party of Croatia) of intentionally slowing down the crisis and using it for its own promotion as victim of the HDZ's insisting on procedure, while at the same time it was plotting with Tudjman's party on the state level concerning key political issues (adoption of the law on denationalization, whose "pro-Communist" intentions were supported by both parties).

Tomcic's criticism mostly gives the impression of being greatly convincing, but he himself blurted out in an interview that certain quite pragmatic interests of the party were behind it, which had little or nothing to do with the Zagreb crisis. He declared that the coalition of so diverse opposition parties might dangerously confuse the voters - which was completely contrary to the latest local elections in Zagreb which were won by the opposition only because it was united - so that the impression cannot be avoided that the HSS wishes to leave the unpleasant company of some of the opposition parties, primarily the SDP which has still not washed off the stigma of a communist party and former authorities. The HSS is close to the HDZ in this, which having lost some of its key election baits from the past (elimination of the Serb threat) has started to turn back to anti-communist propaganda from the first elections (1990).

However, not even the Peasants' Party can take the liberty to directly transform this intermingled interest into marriage with the HDZ, which is still believed by the citizens to be the most responsible for the troublesome and disgraceful Zagreb crisis. That is why they are setting larger demands for the coalition probably with the intention to bring about its "spontaneous" internal split, which would enable its members more free manoeuvring space before the forthcoming elections and entering certain coalition combinations with the HDZ, and even more with Tudjman (which was quite openly mentioned by the most influential leader of the peasants, Josip Pankretic).

The latest statement of the party leadership of the the HSS was that this party would in the future pursue its independent policy, and that it would step out of the coalition if it soon did not effectuate the election will of the voters. But, as this primarily does not depend on it, despite all the anaemia and double-dealing games of the opposition, the HSS is practically working in favour of the HDZ. By its soft coup in order to take over power in Zagreb, the ruling party is, in fact, setting out on an even greater adventure for which it may be punished in the elections worse than ever.

MARINKO CULIC