"FISHY" BUSINESS WITH THE SERBS

AIM Skopje, October 9, 1996

On the first weekend in October, border crossing Blace-General Jankovic between Macedonia and FR of Yugoslavia was opened for freight traffic. The crossing which is on the shortest road from Macedonia to Kosovo and Montenegro was closed last spring, at the time of the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease, but this did not cause much disturbance in comparatively small exchange between the once exceptionally closely linked economic regions. Re-opening of transfer of goods across the border at this point simply suggests that the number of freight vehicles between the two neighbouring states should soon significantly increase.

Expected activity on border crossings is due to the fact that new customs, or perhaps more appropriately, tariff free regime between the Republic of Macedonia and FR of Yugoslavia became effective as of 7 October. This marked, with just a short delay, beginning of implementation of the September Trade Agreement signed by Macodonian and "federal" prime ministers, Branko Crvenkovski and Radoje Kontic, respectively. As its ultimate consequence, the Agreement implies introduction of a free customs zone. In the first phase, all customs rates between the two countries were abolished, and the so-called special taxes amounting to 7.5 per cent were suspended, so the exchange of goods will in the future take place only with payment of recording to the customs authorities of one per cent. For the sake of protection of national economies, some strategic goods will remain within the regime of quotas, which means that quantities to be exported will be limited, and if exceeded, customs tax will have to be paid. Macedonia will control export of some of its agricultural products, cigarettes, some raw materials and metal processing industries products, oil derivatives, refrigerators and buses. And Yugoslavia will limit, among other, export of its livestock and feed, raw materials for oil and sugar production, some types of coal, electric power and some other goods.

According to the mentioned Agreement, new limitations will not be introduced, and in due time, state imposed embargo will be lifted from the goods the export of which has been limited. At the latest by 1 january 1999, inter-state border will become just symbolic for the two economies, because a Free Trade Zone will be established. This fact caused much confusion among the Macedonian public even at the time the arrangement was still in the phase of defining, since the opposition parties immediately interpreted that this was in fact formation of a customs union with the northern neighbour. To be truthful, there are few people who will be able to make a distinction between these two forms of cooperation, but the competent agencies immediately rejected any possibility of becoming excessively "intimate" with FRY which was allegedly implied by a customs union.

Unexpected meeting of the ministers of defence, Blagoje Handjinski and Pavle Bulatovic and general staff officers of the two armies in Nis was received as quite convenient for further criticism by the opposition. Especially since it took place on the very day border transfer of goods was liberalized. A statement was issued from this quick summit the sense of which seems to be to hide the real sense (and contents, of course) of the talks. The two delegations agreed to open military diplomatic offices in Skopje and Belgrade, and exchanged personnel documentation in order to assist former officers of the Yugoslav People's army (JNA) who have remained in Macedonia to resolve their status problems and to ensure peaceful old age. The public accepted interpretation about the social and humanitarian pilgrimage of Minister Handjinski to Nis with unconcealed doubt, and the fact that identical statements were issued in Skopje and Belgrade, and that the two ministers were equally true to their vow of silence just encouraged speculations about the real objective of this meeting.

It will be extremely difficult to dissuade an average citizen of Macedonia that the notorious arrangement about handing over Yugoslav weapons to the Macedonian army was not discussed in the Nis Club of the Army. FR of Yugoslavia, which must give up a part of its arsenal according to the agreement which resulted from the Dayton accords, instead of turning it in to the Smederevo steel works, would allegedly give it to Macedonia. According to certain sources, the authors of such a proposal should be sought in the USA, and the arrangement was once already put "on the table" on the occasion of previous Macedonian-Yugoslav contacts. Although it is very difficult to reach information about such delicate topics in the sphere which was for a long time surrounded by the mysterious phrase "military secret", people who tend to spread rumours about themselves being well informed, claim that the Macedonian party at first bluntly refused this proposal. Allegedly, weaponry which Yugoslavia would give to the Macedonian army is technological junk and incompatible with defence standards which this country, as a member of the initiative Partnership for Peace, should install. As time goes by, however, some previously resolutely rejected ideas seem to become acceptable, so the Macedonian public has started to wonder whether this might be happening again.

Be it as it may, Macedonian officials on the eve of local elections cannot afford the luxury to admit that they are doing anything "fishy" about weapons with the Serbs, but that will not prevent the opposition to speculate concerning the new flirtation with the northern neighbour. This would have happened even if there had been no meeting in Nis. After all, last spring the opposition fiercely criticized the authorities for the Macedonia-Yugoslav agreement on liberalization of customs regime. The current government was accused that it was pushing Macedonia back into certain previous, obsolescent and outmoded frame. Complaints mostly suggested that by alleged rapprochement with Yugoslavia Macedonia was being disloyal to its own policy of "equal distance" to its neighbours, one of the main determinants of its foreign policy. According to interpretations of the opposition leaders, Macedonia would have to make similar steps towards its other neighbours. They in fact insinuated that any economic integration could not but also be political, so they reproached the government that it was pushing the country into the arms of the rump Yugoslav federation.

It would be unjust to Macedonian initiatives not to mention the fact that this state has an identical agreement with Slovenia, and that a similar one, although still just indicated, was designed in Macedonian-Bosnian contacts. However, the agreement with the Slovenes is not by far as "effective" as the one with the Serbs and the Montenegrins is expected to be. Many Macedonian commodities especially those Macedonia is vitally interested for meet with the closed Slovenian border. They believe here that in time, misunderstandings with Slovenia will end and that in due time their mutual Customs Free Zone will also become operational.

Macedonian Minister Ljubomir Frckovski announced a few days ago that agreements on liberalization of trade are in preparation also with "Bulgaria, Croatia and most probably with Albania". When this process ends, Macedonia will be the only country in the region with all-inclusive economic relations, but the question is whether this exclusiveness will be profitable for it. At this moment it is equally important for Macedonian diplomacy as it is for its economy. After all, prompt praise arrived from the European Union for Macedonian cooperativeness in the project of regionalization of Southen Europe. Judging by the reactions of the media to this commendation, Macedonia is pleased with it. Although it was repeated time out of number that the very idea of regionalization was unacceptable for Macedonia.

BUDO VUKOBRAT