ALONE AGAINST EVERYONE ELSE

The Radicals in the Elections

AIM Belgrade, October 18, 1996

Federal, Montenegrin, Voivodina and local elections which are scheduled for November 3 in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia will differ from the previous ones by significant "enlargement" of the political scene in Serbia and Montenegro. Instead of a large number of small and dispersed opposition parties (this time we are disregarding the much-vaunted "combined" parties), parliamentary opposition forces gathered in large coalition blocks - "Zajedno" (Together) in Serbia and "Narodna sloga" (National Concord) in Montenegro. The situation concerning local elections is somewhat more complex

• coalitions are not so firm, and there are even absurd situations that some parties are at the same time coalition partners and fierce rivals - but on the federal and the Montenegrin level, the biggest part of the political scene is polarized between the ruling block (in Serbia - the Socialist Party of Serbia /SPS/, the Yugoslav Left /JUL/, Nova Demokratija /New Democracy/, in Montenegro - the Democratic Party of Socialists /DPS/ and small "Serb parties") and the democratic opposition.

All analysts of the political scene concentrated on the forthcoming election clash between these political blocks. Nevertheless, apart from the "first Serbia" - the one in power and in favour of the authorities, and "the other Serbia" - the one which is, at least declaratively, trying to pull out of the anti-European matrix of the ruling ideology, there is a not at all negligible third force - the Serb Radical Party (SRS) of Dr Vojislav Seselj, a political organization which wavered in its relations with the regime of Slobodan Milosevic, but was very consistent in its total aversion to the parties of the political centre, especially those which were persistently opposed to ethnic nationalism and in favour of a sensible approach to issues of "national interest". Nowadays, on the eve of November elections, in significantly changed (geo)political relations in the region, it is quite uncertain to what extent this "third Serbia" - the so far stable electorate of Dr Vojislav Seselj - is still willing to support the policy of the Radicals: "Alone against everyone else in Serbia - alone against the whole world - until Greater Serbia is achieved".

Leaders of the Radicals with great self-confidence declare that Slobodan Milosevic and the ruling party are their only serious rival, while the coalition Zajedno is the over-inflated balloon which will burst in the elections. At the pre-election gathering in Nis, Vojislav Seselj expressed this in his style: "I will toss a coin: heads will be the victory of the Socialists, tails will be voctory of the Radicals, and if the coin remains in the air, it will be the victory of the coalition Zajedno!" The coin did not remain in the air, but it is questionable whether Seselj will be able to toy with political laws so wittily as he does with the laws of physics.

The golden age of the Radicals in Serbia has gone for ever along with relieving of war tensions and nationalistic propaganda, and along with the split of the political concubinage between the Radicals and the Socialists. At the time of their political love affair, the Radicals had a priviliged treatment in powerful state-controlled media and very good connections in state agencies, including repressive agencies which were especially interesting for them. This gave Seselj a tricky impression that he was powerful and well informed, and that he was therefore close to overtaking power. Nevertheless, as soon as Milosevic seriously decided to break up this three-year long political flirtation, the Serb Radicals soon found themselves cut off even from apparent closeness to real centres of power, and many of their activists in the field ended up literally on the other side of the law.

There is no doubt that Vojislav Seselj and his associates long to get back at the Socialists for their political infidelity and "national treason", but Seselj has learnt the lesson well never to underestimate Milosevic's chances in any political competition; that is why he speaks of the Socialists as his opponents, but always with esteem. For the rest of the opposition, however, Seselj expresses nothing but contempt and claims that the Radicals will sweep them off the political map of Serbia. This resembles singing of a man who walks alone through the forest at night: he needs to encourage himself so his feat and anxiety would not be noticed. This time, the Radicals are playing va banque: the election system has been changed so as to give absolute preference to a party or a coalition which wins the biggest number of votes, but almost wipes out all the other competitors in the elections. That is why reasons of greater intolerance of the Radicals towards the coalition Zajedno than towards the Socialists are not only "ideological" but just as much pragmatical. The only chance for Seselj's party to retain its present position is to somehow come out second in the elections. Probability that this will actually happen is very low, however, even after Avramovic's bizarre withdrawing from political engagement.

The spirit of the time works against the Radicals. It is difficult to believe that those who did not vote for the SRS even at the time of most vehement nationalistic euphoria, might now turn to this party of losers. It would be quite a political but also a psychological phenomenon which is mockingly titled in Serbia as "joining the Chetniks in 1944" (when it was clear that they were losing the war). A signidficant portion of the electorate which manifested an increased sensibility for "our brethren across the Drina" in the beginning of the nineties, is nowadays, weighed down by poverty, unemployment and hopelessness, turning towards issues of economic survival of the "heavenly people" recently thrown down on the ground. And in this sphere even Radoje Kontic (federal Prime Minister) is more powerful than the bearded Radicals with crossed cartridge belts. Nothing to say about the cunning "grandpa Avram".

(AIM) Teofil Pancic