RHETORIC CHANGED - POLICY THE SAME

AIM, ZAGREB, October 7, 1996

For the time being Tudjman is the most lethal person for the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina wrote "International Herald Tribune" recently, actually repeating the estimates of Alija Izetbegovic. The first man of a Bosnia patched-up in Dayton, thinks that Serbs no longer have the strength to pull it down, but fears the Croatian political and economic power and pins his hopes on the growing democratization of Croatia, which, according to him, is inevitable.

Foreign media claim that the Serb and Croat in the new B&H Presidency could plot against the Bosniac, i.e. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Such estimates are not far fetched. In many respect that which is called the Croatian policy has irresistibly resembled that which is called the Serbian policy, starting from the formation of its own, ethnically homogenous mini-state up to an effort to confirm the results of ethnic cleansing by using the P2 form. Lately there is a striking similarity between the statements of the first Bosnian Croat and the first Serb. After his meeting with Zubak, Momcilo Krajisnik said that the Serbian side will not form any coalition, but that the congruity of interests was possible. Kresimir Zubak explained that serving the interests of the Croatian people he will not enter into coalitions, but rather into cooperation with the side with the converging interests. This has been lately garnished with the public recognition of the Serbian Democratic Party.

Bozo Rajic, the HDZ B&H President, points out that this party "is a legitimate exponent of the political will of the Serbian people". Disclosing the information that they have "on several occasions" suggested to Izetbegovic's SDA to stop ignoring the SDS, Rajic says: "In that sense, we shall establish a dialogue with the SDS, but shall not form pacts with anyone". At first glance this sounds as democratic reasoning. But, at the same time, according to the opposition parties, this is a dialogue between fear and arms. Especially in relation to the Joint List. This is corroborated by two assassination attempts on Jolo Musa, an outstanding opposition personality, representative of the Joint List in the Federal Parliament. A bomb thrown at Musa's house, and two days later machine-gun fire in which both him and his wife were seriously wounded - show not only the persistence of the gunman, but also negligence on the part of those who were supposed to protect Musa. The attacks happened in the western part of Mostar, where the HDZ has absolute power. Someone already said that these shots were actually fired at reconciliation and peaceful reintegration of the city.

On the basis of such examples the foreign media claim that the Croatian policy has not changed much, but only that there are attempts to attain war objectives with different means. Similar conclusions can be drawn from the recent celebration of the Liberation Day of Jajce, and the gathering of volunteers of the Patriotic War of Herzeg-Bosnia. "The first anniversary of freedom" was formally celebrated at the base of Jajce tower, with an enormous Croatian flag flying from it. According to the Croatian television, the liberation of the "royal city" was celebrated with a military review of the HVO (Croatian Defence Council) troops which later formed into ranks at the city stadium. The same source says that apart from military and civil leaders of Herzeg Bosnia, the ceremony was also attended by representatives of Croatian units, which have participated in the liberation of Jajce, as well as guests from Trogir and Knin. Addressing the soldiers, General Zivko Budimir, Chief of General Staff of HVO said that they have "dispersed darkness over Jajce" and "victoriously hoisted the Croatian banner on the Jajce tower".

Emphasizing that this did not mean "that our tasks are all completed", as the main weapon in the forthcoming period Budimir underlined: military-professional training, moral purity and fortitude, Croatian unity and faith in the "Croatian state and Croatian leader Dr.Franjo Tudjman". Other speakers also underlined the Croatian unity, both in war and peace. At the celebration a special diploma was given to Gojko Susak, Defence Minister, while Franjo Tudjman, President of Croatia, was proclaimed an honorary citizen of Jajce. Sometime later, at the end of last month, volunteers, about two thousand of them, held a convention in Mostar at which, tumultuously welcomed, spoke Mate Boban. As he himself said, he repeated the original demands, pointing them out as lasting objectives: "For homeland, for the Croatian leader, for HR Herzeg Bosnia, for independent Croatian state". At about same time talks were discontinued in Mostar on the return of exiles to six settlements in the western and eastern parts of the city, while the Croatian sources claim that the offered pilot-programme was unacceptable for the Croatian people.

Such examples show that it is the same old story when it comes to policy. In the previous period, as well as at the elections, it was all formulated so as to independently develop further. "The Incomplete Peace", recently presented analysis of developments on the territory of ex-Yugoslavia, prepared by the International Commission for the Balkans, composed of the world most prominent intellectuals, notes that the territory under the HVO control is being silently absorbed by the Croatian state - by means of the Croatian currency, telecommunications and the media - while only last year Croats from B&H were directly elected to the Croatian Parliament.

Thus the almost completed annexation makes it possible for Zagreb to pretend to be seemingly indifferent towards Bosnia and Herzegovina. This is probably the consequence of great international pressure. In that respect, particularly convincing was the message of the Hague Tribunal, which, issuing the wanted notice for Ivica Rajic, accused Croatia of war against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Those well-versed say that during his stay in Zagreb, Richard Holbrooke had "very cold and hard talks" with Kresimir Zubak. He inquired about the activities of the Mostar maffia, relations with the Bosniac partner, obstruction of the Dayton Agreement and Zubak's statement that south of Capljina the green colour - will not get far. Zagreb has hushed up also because it has swaped its "constructive contribution in Bosnia" for a favourable solution in eastern Slavonia, as the local media close to the authorities openly admit.

All this influenced the change in the official rhetoric. The leading men, those who previously advocated the division of Bosnia and Herzegovina, now keep silent about that. The journalists have taken over the baton. Ostensibly objectively, they conclude that the breaking up of Bosnia and Herzegovina - which they call a Yugo-fabrication - is inevitable. "Vijesnik" is gloating over the fact that in its release about recent Tudjman-Izetbegovic talks, the Bosniac side has for the first time agreed to two formulations on which Zagreb insisted all the time. The first is that "the two sides should persevere in the consistent implementation of the Washington and Dayton agreements". For Zagreb, according to "Vijesnik", the Washington Agreement in the first place means "strategic-political reliance of the Federation on Croatia".

Zagreb is especially happy because of the formulation that "a session of the Joint Council for Cooperation between the Republic of Croatia and the B&H Federation" will be called "as soon as possible". A Zagreb daily close to the Presidential palace observes that this is the first time that relationship between Croatia and the Federation was emphasized separately and takes that as a sign that "the Moslem Bosniacs have realized that they cannot realize their interests in the Dayton Bosnia by going against the Croats, but primarily, with their help".

It turns out that Izetbegovic has to satisfy the Croats if he wants to prevent them from entering into alliance with Krajisnik, i.e. Serbian separatism. Writing recently about the trio in the Bosnian Presidency, the Paris "La Monde" said that "Zubak will never betray the hand that feeds him, and his only boss today, Franjo Tudjman, is far from abandoning the plan about the Great Croatia".

JELENA LOVRIC