FIASCO OF BLIND FOLLOWERS OF SERBIAN SOCIALISTS

Reactions in Serbia to Elections in B&H

In a variety of opinions which can be heard in Belgrade political lobbies, the following is characteristic: the dream about Greater Serbia has not come true this time, but this does not mean that it will not be pursued any more, but in a different way.

AIM Belgrade, September 20, 1996

Just as most influential world statesmen and especially people from the OSCE were enthusiastic about elections in B&H in their statements, calling them "historical" and a "turning point", officials, analysts and media in Belgrade passed over this event in silence, and seemed to be just as disinterested. It would have been completely different had the candidate of the Alliance for Peace and Progress supported by the official Belgrade won in the race for the three-member Presidency. Election results for this highest state agency, about which nobody in Belgrade can even imagine how it will operate, deprived leaders of the ruling Socialist Party of Serbia of all illusions, but also offered an opportunity to opposition leaders, bluntly put - to gloat.

For instance, deputy of the head of the group of assembly deputies of the Democratic Party of Serbia, Vladan Batic, known for his biting tongue, says that the people in Republika Srpska "elected legitimate representatives" despite enormous promotion in media that the "blind followers of the Socialist Party of Serbia" (SPS) had. President of the Civic Alliance of Serbia, Vesna Pesic, does not hide satisfaction either "that the party of Slobodan Milosevic lost in the elections". The same or very similar opinion is shared by personalities of the other parties. Almost nobody wishes to enter into commenting the fact that in the next two years the president of the collective state leadership will be Alija Izetbegovic.

One of the vociferous oppositionists who does not wish to have his name mentioned, says: "Somebody has to be the president. The Muslims and the Croats would not have accepted Momcilo Krajisnik even if he had won a larger number of votes. I think that he will be able to do for the Serbs much more as a member of this body than as its president. Besides, Izetbegovic will constantly be closely watched by the international factors, because he will have the treatment of the head of the state. The so-called international community has, after all, brought him to the post even before the election results were publicized by having made arrangements for his meeting with Milosevic in Paris".

For the President of the Democratic Party of Serbia, Vojislav Kostunica, the most important thing is that the elections have confirmed "the statehood of Republika Srpska within B&H", and the leader of the Democratic Party, Zoran Djindjic, characterizes the victory of Biljana Plavsic and Momcilo Krajisnik in the Serbian entity as "magnificent", stressing that in this way it was said "NO to branch offices of Slobodan Milosevic".

None of Belgrade oppositionists is surprised with the election results. The President of the party of Democratic Centre, Dragoljub Micunovic claims this. He told the journalist of AIM the following: "Victory of national parties was expected. Because, the time since the end of the war was too short for any peacemaking education of the population. Second, there is still an enormous lack of confidence and representatives of ethnic groups have managed to unite their respective nations in order to avoid dispersion of votes. Such dispersion was most prominent among the Serb population, because there was the attempt of a coalition to snatch away at least one third of the votes from the national parties. I belive that the situation will be better, because for the first time after the war, there will be a single central power in B&H. It will be very difficult to work in that Presidency. These people know each other for a long time, since they were holding prominent posts while B&H was a federal unit within Yugoslavia. They were unable to cooperate even at the time, then they waged war against each other and now they have found themselves in the same room again, expected to reach joint decisions. The difference is that there is an enormous influence of the international factors and I hope that all three of them have become aware that they do not enjoy the nonchalanche of irresponsibility in decision-making they enjoyed before. Now these decisions will have to fit into the Dayton accords, they will have to be aware of the presence of international observers, military and police forces. If any of them attempts to stir up conflicts, they know what will happen to them. However, I will not be surprised at all if they begin to cooperate in order to appear in a different light".

Among analysts partial to civic-society oriented parties in B&H, the opinion prevails that these elections were "just preparation for those who will presevere in two years time", when people of Bosnia & Herzegovina will be able to distinguish more easily and with a clear mind whether they have a future with national parties. As if this is a specific transitional period. According to the assessment of the majority, the international community has not given sufficient support to the Associated List for B&H, although it has publicly always advocated "civic society".

It is not surprising at all that the leaders of nationalistically oriented parties in Serbia greeted with approval the victory of the candidates of SDS on "their ground", but it is a little odd that they have forgotten Radovan Karadzic so quickly, especially those who were often his guests in Pale. He is simply not mentioned at all, neither in the official media, nor in commentaries. The reason is probably the fact that Biljana Plavsic is his "worthy successor".

There are also opinions that "each will rule in its own back yard" and that the central authorties in Sarajevo will be just "a pretext for the international community" which will be able to say that it managed to "bring to the same table those who were enemies at war with each other until recently".

In a variety of opinions which can be heard in Belgrade political lobbies, the following is characteristic: the dream about Greater Serbia has not come true this time, but this does not mean that this will not be pursued any more, but in a different way. Even if we have not created a union of Serb lands, neither did Izetbegovic manage to create unitarian Bosnia following his concept. Maybe we are all losers at the moment. If the army of the Federation becomes well armed, in about ten years a new war could break out. Of course, if the forces of the NATO, or just the USA, do not remain there at least as long as peace forces in Cyprus...

In the midst of such contemplations and opinions of certain party members - that the war in B&H has definitely come to the end - it is difficult to discern what the future has in store for us. Almost all agree about one thing, regardless of party affiliation: Bosnia cannot survive without abundant financial assistance of developed countries, and departure of any international military and police forces is more than risky.

It is also evident that the party in power and state-controlled media are less concerned about the future of Bosnia than about the question whether after the elections sanctions imposed on Serbia and Montenegro will be lifted. The quoted Vladan Batic believes that it will not take place until all persons indicted of war crimes are not extradited to the Tribunal in the Hague, an agreement on succession reached and "an adequate level of autonomy in Kosovo" established.

(AIM) Ejub Stitkovac