WHO WILL LEAD MASS PROTESTS?

AIM Zagreb, September 18, 1996

Vice-Chairman of the Assembly, Vladimir Seks, claims that a "yoghurt-revolution" is being prepared in Croatia. He aims at the initiative of Vlado Gotovac, President of the Social Liberal Party, to direct the opposition towards extra-parliamentary forms of activities, such as mass gatherings, peaceful marches, demonstrations, petitions. Gotovac claims that there is plenty of reason for such activities. The parliament is blocked, and so are the media, illegal institutions are taking over functions of legal ones. "We must find a way to unblock the current situation, since the blockade is on the one hand dangerous for the political national body and its life, and on the other, this blockade actually protects everything else that is cause for our alarm, and this is dissolution of values, of the economy and all spheres of national life", said the first among the Liberals.

The idea was received with animosity not only by the ruling party, but also by the opposition. With quite similar arguments. Seks claims that Gotovac is proposing a "happening of the people" (riots), like the one which preceded the rise of Slobodan Milosevic. He interprets it as an attempt to overturn the government which had come to power by winning in the elections. Josip Manolic, Vice-President of HND, who is lately intensively courting the ruling HDZ, speaks in the similar manner. He says he is in favour of reforms, but against revolution, because "those who advocate revolutionary methods do not know that it leads us into a deadend street which can mean nothing but a collapse of the entire Croatian politics and the Croatian state." Which reformers in the HDZ Manolic relies on - he did not say, but he is very clear that he considers Gotovac a dangerous revolutionary. His experience teaches him, he says, that resorting to extra-parliamentary forms of achieving certain objectives is a double-edged sword, because "every strike, rebellion and protest may not destroy the state, but it bears the germ of revolution". According to this logic, western democracies in which there are strikes and mass protests all the time, would be ruled by revolution. It is clear that this is not the case.

The idea of Gotovac was not received with approval even in his own party. Proposed methods were proclaimed to be "raping of democracy". Vice-President of the Liberals, Goran Granic, declared that he "would not consider this proposal significant". Former Liberal, Ljubomir Antic, claims that this is a case of advocating psychology of masses and also mentions the term "happening of the people". Such a loud criticism of an idea - for which there are absolutely no signs that it could be effectuated - shows that there is no readiness among the opposition for using any strong means. The opposition laments that it is blocked, but there will hardly be any serious attempts on its part to try to get out of this blockade. The public is nowadays much more radical than the opposition, and the idea on mass protests is an attempt to keep up with it.

At the same time with sheding suspicion that Gotovac was arranging a happening of the people, a drill for "antibureaucratic revolution" took place. At a great gathering of war disabled veterans, squaring accounts was announced from the very top with "Yugo-communist dregs" (Tudjman), as well as a purge of the remainders of the old regime (defence minister Gojko susak). Protest of about four thousand disabled veterans last week in front of the building of the Assembly - was confusing from its very start. Demands of the disabled veterans concerned expressly their social status, but the law which is just about to be adopted, generously accepted them all. The disabled veterans are protesting because they cannot exercise these rights, but against whom the protest is directed - it is not transparent. They shout against the Government, but at the same time praise the Ministry of defence which is in charge of them. In fact, majority of organizers of the protest are employed there. They announce that they will explicitly give the names of all war profiteers, but they are silent about dubious financial business deals,and those concerning housing problems in their Ministry. Independent journal Novi list cites the fact that last year the Ministry of defence allegedly bought more than half a million orthopaedic aids, although there are at the most two and a half thousand disabled veterans who need them.

Weekly Globus claims that this is an attempt to overturn the government with the help of the disabled. There are many reasons to believe that two factions in the ruling party are actually conflicted through them - the right headed by the Minister of defence, and the moderate one controlled by the government. Minister Susak was the first to publicly support the protest of disabled veterans, it is in fact most likely that he had initiated it. But, the range was determined by President Tudjman. He arrived angry to the convention of the disabled veterans which had preceded the rally, gave a speech, supported all their demands and pointed out to the threat of "Yugo-communist dregs". After that, ministers could do nothing but compete in paying compliments to "Croatian knights", they all expressed support to all their demands, the edge was turned against some undefined old bureaucracy. Susak marked the target: "This gathering is a warning that the rate of purification is not quick enough. There are all kinds of people in Croatia, but when we set out to the war in '90, we said that we would not revenge ourselves, because it would have meant return to '45. Instead, we decided that we would purify, but unfortunately this process has lasted too long. But, we will continue to purify", shouted the Minister as a conclusion.

In fact, it is just being decided who will control and channel the enormous social and political discontent in Croatia - whether the unscrupulous regime or the constantly wavering opposition. Protests - which is a novelty - have lately moved out into the street. This is a sign that tensions have increased enormously and that the malcontents have become aware that the method used so far is - inefficient. It is necessary to shout more loudly for the deaf ears of the authorities to hear. The trade union claims that there is no sense in strikes inside the enterprises any more, because it just accelerates bankruptcy and sale of decayed firms for trifles.

A series of street protests of metal workers started this summer by that of workers of Sisak steelworks, and now protests are announced in all the districts. Situation in metal industries is catastrophic. Since '90, the number of workers was reduced by half, hundred thousand people were dismissed, and by the end of the year another ten thousand will join them.Ninety per cent of metal industries are owned by the state, but the state is also their biggest debtor. They have worked for the army, but have never been paid for the job. They say that they had been producing arms in impossible conditions, that their employers stuffed German marks into their own pockets, and now when the war is over and jobs have become scarce - they are sacking workers. It is believed that after metal workers, protests in other economy branches will follow. Pensioners are threatening that they too would go out in the street. Banished persons from Esatern Slavonia protested in Slavonia. They also demand improvement of their social status, but the emphasis is on the demand not to renew the mandate of peace forces in Eastern Slavonia and that the elections there must be scheduled by the end of the year. This does not differ from demands of the Croatian regime. It is believed, however, that the main reason why banished persons are demonstrating is - to prevent adoption of a law on general pardon. As part of this series, hunger strike of Josip Kokic should also be mentioned, who is one of the opposition activists who demands that the crisis in Zagreb finally be resolved, that Tudjman recognize results of the elections in Zagreb and ratify the opposition mayor.

Commenting recently on the agreement on mutual Croatian-Serbian recognition, Dusan Bilandzic says that major re-designing lies ahead for Croatia, that it must profoundly reconstruct almost all political relations which emerged during the war. Croatia is at the moment, Bilandzic claims, the result of disorder and chaos, space dominated by various machinations. The professor argues that changes are inevitable by saying: the situation in the country cannot be justified by threat of war any more; Tudjman cannot go on frightening anyone with revival of Yugoslavia; the authorities, with the final end of the war, will be exposed to increasing pressure of all political and social malcontents.

Mass protests can be a lever to democracy but to anti-democracy too. In western countries, demonstrations and public protests are a component of democratic liveliness. But here, when the people go out into the street - it usually ends in a completely different manner.

JELENA LOVRIC