HEADACHE FOR FUTURE AUTHORITIES

What Awaits Winners of the Elections in Republika Srpska

AIM Banja Luka, September 16, 1996

Regardless of who will win in the elections in Republika Srpska, the winner will not have reason to celebrate. In view of the structure and "nature" of problems in Republika Srpska which are unquestionable and which determine the entire social life of this entity, it is almost completely the smae which political option and which parties, coalitions or blocks will form the authorities and "rule" after the elections.

The problems are, indeed, the same, no matter who will be resolving them.

However, methods, course and dynamics of resolving the marked problems are not the same. That is what distinguishes authorities one from the other, and rules of different parties or coalitions which form the authorities, support them or control them. In other words, the authorities differ according to which problem they give priority in resolving, according to methods they apply, and finally according to what the final score will be between negative and positive consequences. The latter criterion is the one which determines whether a rule will be remembered in history as successful or unsuccessful.

Which problems await the new authorities in Republika Srpska?

The first and the foremost is the question of the number of victims in the just ended war. Very soon the authorities of Republika Srpska will have to come out with the exact data on the number of those who were killed in the fatherland war, on the number of wounded, disabled, war orphans etc. However, of all the questions from this "category", the most difficult for the new authorities will be to answer the question what has happened to persons - combatants and civilians who are registered as "disappeared persons".

The new National Assembly of Republika Srpska, no matter what distribution of political powers in it may be, will also have to go through with the investigations concerning all those scandals whose clarification was initiated by the old parliament, but which have never - not in a single case - been completed. And there were not just a few of these scandals: VW Golf cars from Vogosce car factory, aluminium from Herzegovina, primary issue of the National Bank of RS, oil import from Bulgaria, "September 1993", causes of military debacle and loss of 13 west-Krajina municipalities in autumn 1995, and many more.

Deputies from parties which had not participated in them will refuse to be silent about them, so assembly debates will be rich of topics which will tickle not only the gossip-loving public, but also that part of it which is truly interested in political developments and stability of the state/society they live in.

But, much more important and difficult to resolve than these emotional political issues are economic issues which concern the very existence. Unfortunately, Republika Srpska is so full of these problems that it could not be helped to get rid of them quickly and establish a normal economic flow and a stable state - not even by teams of experts from countries which had already passed through the process which still awaits Republika Srpska. Economic dissolution has progressed so much and has done so much harm on the territory of Bosnia & Herzegovina that destroyed and torn strings of the economy can be revived from the ashes only by considerable financial assistance from abroad. However, for a long time to come there will be no foreign investors in this space, because capital simply does not go to politically unstable regions.

And there are several hundred thousand unemployed workers in Republika Srpska. Majority of them have been warriors until recently, who have been wandering for months between their homes and factories, between factories and unions of veterans or state agencies, and some of them even to political parties which promised all sorts of things before the elections. There is usually no solution to be found anywhere, so all the unemployed former workers and warriors become cases for social welfare. Just like many disabled veterans, families of killed combatants, refugees, displaced persons, pensioners and other categories of the population.

Even if those who had promised before the elections rapid reintegration into Europe, economic connections with the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegiovina, even stronger links with Serbia and Yugoslavia came to power, economic problems could not be resolved faster and more efficiently. All promises given in this sphere are nothing but daydreams for the credulous. There are no jobs, nor will there be for a long time to come.

The situation will be even more difficult for those political parties - if they will participate in the executive power, of course - which had promised before the elections that they would in just a few days resolve the refugee problem in Republika Srpska. More precisely, that immediately after new authorities are established, they would empty the so-called collective centres in which there are still about ten thousand refugees from regions which had been abandoned last autumn in the attack of the forces of the Federation, the Croat army and international forces for quick interventions, or which after Dayton Agreement became part of the Federation B&H. That it is no simple matter will become clear to all those who attempt to implement the Law on use of temporarily abandoned housing units and try to accomodate displaced persons and refugees in houses and apartments of their former tenants. Local interests, various lobbies, claiming of other people's property, connections among members of different gangs etc. are more powerful here than in any other sphere. Therefore, it should not be a surprise for anyone that children of refugees are still born in tractor trailors or under nylon shelters, while at the same time, some Serbs are holding two or three houses or apartments of previous owners or tenants - Muslims and Croats, of course.

Before these elections the state had made a true effort and paid a few pensions to its retired citizens - who are more numerous than those who are employed, which is a paradox in itself - noone knows from which sources, but it is highly questionable whether there will be a single pension until the end of the year. The pension fund is simply empty, and it is empty because it is not re-plenished in the manner which is normal everywhere else in the world: the economy is not operating, and taxes are irregularly and unselectively collected. There will also be no various exemptions for this social category - for example, exemption from paying electric power, public services etc., so paupers' kitchens is all they can hope for. Employees in education, health services, culture and other activities which have nothing to sell, or whose goods are not popular on the "market" of the just established state entity of Republika Srpska, will share a similar destiny.

In Republika Srpska, where out of 61 municipalities, only four are not bordering ones, at the present constellation of "good neighbourly relations", the army and the system of defence must be given full attention. And this means that the army must become professional, well-trained, equipped and armed, that it must have educated officers, and not leave the command to superiors of another, even if it were "brotherly" army, for example the Army of Yugoslavia, soldiers must be well and regularly paid. Of course, the question is where from, from which sources this money could be provided. This process will be neither easy nor quick, and the danger of a new armed conflict has not been completely eliminated, despite the elections. The already humble national income per capita will largely have to be used for defence, which will necessarily reflect on depriving other professional and social categories in the society.

As soon as the votes are counted, the winner proclaimed and constitution of new authorities begins, the voters will realize in what aspects they had been deceived, but it will already be too late for correcting mistakes. If it was possible to avoid them at all.

(AIM) Milan Vidovic