"ALONE" AGAINST EVERYBODY ELSE

Yugoslav Left On Its Own In the Elections

AIM Belgrade, September 12, 1996

The "political family saga" Milosevic-Markovic which has for years now irritated, intimidated or confused a large portion of Serbian public, has acquired a new dimension. The party of Slobodan Milosevic's wife - Yugoslav United Left (JUL), despite speculations about a coalition with the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), has reached a decision to participate in the forthcoming election race "relying on its own forces".

What have the voters been promised, if JUL should win?

"Creation of a more prosperous, more righteous and humane society... establishment of an efficient state ruled by law, struggle against crime... variety of forms of ownership... protection of interests of the workers... free education and regular pensions", stands among other in the explanation of the decision of this party. The slogan with which this party will be presented is: "The Yugoslav Left knows that the citizens can best choose their own future".

The unexpected gesture of the left satellite of the ruling Serbian party (it was even announced that the coalition of the SPS and JUL would be joined by Nova demokratija of Dusan Mihajlovic) caused gloating among opposition political parties. The only party which issued a statement on the occasion was the strongest party of the centre, Serbian Revival Movement (SPO) which believes that "the gang which spends results of labour of millions of people in this country will finally get what it deserves". Both the analysts and the oppositionists are this time united in the assessment that the Yugoslav Left is entering into an undertaking whose outcome will be - defeat.

Modestly and with Enthusiasm

The JUL was founded two years ago as a movement of twenty odd leftist, mostly marginal parties, but it cannot be said to be a minor party. Incalculable financial and political influence was provided for it by the "most powerful woman in the country" - Mirjana Markovic. It is no secret that four ministers in the Government of the Republic of Serbia are members of the JUL, and a few others can be said to be cadres and favourites of Mrs. Markovic.

Apart from it, this party has an exceptional influence on economic developments. Oil and wood-processing industries are under its patronage. The list of managers of large firms who are officials of JUL is inexhaustable. Close at hand to the JUL are the extemely rich Nenad Djordjevic (former agent of State Security Service) who has already acquired the nickname Great Gatsby of the Left, "Komet" enterprise which owns, among other "Beomedicina", but also more than 200 apartments and entire floors in buildings in New Belgrade, "Jugotrejd"... And a firm for securing buildings called "Kometa" (which rendered services even to some diplomatic representatives in Belgrade) - actually a team which leader of the Serb Radical Party, Vojislav Seselj, called "party army entrusted with the task to arrest opposition leaders".

The list of financial resources of the JUL does not end with those mentioned, so that words of a member of the Main Board of the party sound comical: "Financial power of JUL is altogether humble. The truth is that we economize and do everything with enthusiasm. The JUL does not gather powerful managers or directors, but in its ranks it does have successful directors. Where they will direct their money is their (directors') affair".

Just a short step back into the history of non-partisan activities of the Yugoslav Left gives a clear picture of the power of this non-parliamentarian party in Realpolitik. Not just a few, at the time of patriotism, most influential cadres of the Socialist Party of Serbia ended their careers in the diary of Slobodan Milosevic's wife piblished in biweekly Duga, which was called the barometre of personnel changes in the country. That is how the official ideologist of the SPS, Mihajlo Markovic, former president of the former state, Borislav Jovic, former director of Radio-Television Serbia, Milorad Vucelic... lost all political impact, because for the current ruling taste they were excessivelly nationally oriented.

Commenting for AIM the undefined relations which exist between the SPS and the JUL, leading expert on activities of political parties in this country, Vladimir Goati, claims that it is a fact that "members of the two parties are in exceptionally good relations, and the existing conflict of interests reflects itself as a factionist struggle". Goati believes that personnel purges in the SPS towards the end of 1995 moved in the direction of "elimination of persons whose primary interest was the interest of the parent party - the Socialist Party".

It is interesting that the gap between the JUL and the SPS best reflects itself in small environments. Many officials of the ruling party are ready to unofficially admit that "they do not understand why JUL is being formed as a spare party".

Some analysts tend to explain that the Left, as a spare party was intended to "wash nationalists off the hands of the SPS" and "collect votes of nostalgic communists and national minorities who most certainly would not go to Slobodan Milosevic".

The latest developments in Sandzak seem to speak in favour of this opinion: among members of both Ugljanin's and Ljajic's faction of the Party of Democratic Action, one can hear the thesis that the couple Milosevic-Markovic has split the electorate into two - the husband is in charge of the Serbian half, and the wife of the minorities.

From the Right into the Left pocket

In a conversation for AIM, Dr Miladin Kovacevic, an investigator of public opinion declared that this election year, in comparison with the previous ones, was exceptional because there were the least possible number of attempts to examine the will of the electors. Although there are so few of them, results of this year's public opinion polls coincide in some aspects - parties which have a small number of supporters, which have negligible impact, have no chance of winning a sufficient percentage of the electorate to enter the parliament. According to all indicators, the Yugoslav Left belongs in this category.

According to data of "Mark-plan" agency (which is believed to be close to the authorities) obtained in a poll among 2448 randomly chosen citizens of FRY (without Kosovo) who are of age, 4.5 per cent of the voters would vote for JUL, and 25.6 would place their trust in the SPS. An official of the JUL recently declared that he hoped they would win one third of the electorate. He did not make it clear whether he also meant voters who would place their trust in the SPS.

"In view of the results of empirical investigations and those accomplished in previous elections, despite the campaign in the media, there is little chance for the Left to make a significant move on November 3", Vladimir Goati believes. He adds that independent running of the JUL in the elections is in fact of very little concern of the opposition. "The Serbian electorate is divided between those who vote for the authorities and those who are in favour of the opposition. The Yugoslav Left is perceived as a ruling matrix. Votes will be divided between them and the SPS. In fact, it is like a transfer - from the left into the right pocket and vice versa. The SPS and the JUL appear as election rivals, because they count on the same electorate", says Goati, adding that possible loss of the elections for the JUL does not at all mean its loss of power.

"Power is connected to economic position, holding of strategic posts... I do not believe in the possibility of a significant conflict between these two parties. It is questionable to what extent the JUL is autonomous in its activities and to what extent its influence is the result of the will of leaders of the SPS. I do not have the impression that the JUL is very independent", claims Goati.

It remains to be seen whether this election adventure of the JUL is the result of a wish of this party to gain independence, or if it is the result of a pragmatic and secret agreement with the ruling party in the name of a high interest of the couple Milosevic-Markovic. After final division of the electorate, it will become clear who is in fact "the master of the house".

Danica Vucenic (AiM)