VOTERS TORMENTED WITH DOUBTS

Pre-Election Dilemmas

AIM Tuzla, September 10, 1996

Repeated public opinion poll carried out in Tuzla by the agency called "Taldi" shows that the number of voters who still do not know who they will vote for is still increasing. Nevertheless, 71 per cent of the pollees answered that they would certainly go to the polls. Almost all public opinion polls start from the attempt to determine the frame of mind of the citizens. Not a single one has tried to reveal the stance of the citizens concerning their trust in election promises, and circumstances which lead them to give their votes to "their parties and politicians".

All the agencies which carry out public opinion polls and analysts seek the sense of forecasts of the elections in the answer to the question - who will be the winners? Just a few analysts consider it more important to foretell what will happen after the elections and whether and how to ensure post-election control of political developments in Bosnia & Herzegovina?

In our space, there exists a disturbing split of the voter's personality into "private and public", which is a characteristic of repressive systems. The "public I" gives the answers which are expected from it, while the "private I" conceals its thoughts. This can be observed in everyday conversations about the elections: "Who will you vote for?" - "Please, be quiet, it is not advisable to talk about it", "Why not?" - "Oh, well, I must go along with the majority" "Why with the majority?" -"Well, we must all think alike". "Who makes you to think alike?" - "Oh, well, the authorities, the surroundings, how could I be different?" - "Do you sometimes wish to think differently?", - "Of course, I do, no need to ask me that", "Why don't you do it, then?", - "Come on, man, they tap our phones, eavesdrop in the streets, so I'm used to it - it's better to keep quiet".

According to many indicators, the voters base their choice of candidates or parties on value judgements, not facts, because in this space they are used to having the authorities promise all kinds of things, and then in the post-election period they neutralize mechanisms of control of their behavior. That is why it seems to many that it is all the same who they will vote for, when it is the matter of the attitude of the authorities to democracy and lawfulness of operation. Just a minor number of citizens is well-aware "who and why they will vote for". They are mostly critical intellectuals, politically engaged persons and those who feel discontent about their status (position). For a valid forecast of election results, it would be important to answer to the question - who the citizens will vote for without any value judgements?

In everyday conversations, it can clearly be observed that many voters are not capable of understanding election possibilities. Their most frequent comments are: "There are so many of them", and judging by frequency of this comment, it actually means: "They are all the same". The first comment is a remainder single-mindedness, and the latter is an indicator of the belief that personal interest of the candidates and the party leaders is more prominent than pleading for the good of the community.

It is symptomatic that in reactions of voters there is no clear division between the two - in election campaigns sharply divided - planes: the civil and the national. Indicators that this is so are numerous, and they are confirmed by comments such as the following: "I will vote for them, if they give me a salary, a job, pension, ensure return home".

There are quite a few voters whose understanding of election possibilities is burdened with emotions of all kinds. Their typical comments are: "How can I choose, look what they've done to our country"; "Last time we voted, and look where it has led us". These are voters who are burdened by fear of making a mistake or repeating the same mistake, so they have difficulties in identifying with the person or the party they will vote for.

Comments such as "who knows what will become of us" are frequent. It is an indicator of fear of the future.

Collective, "we identity" is the contemplative framework which burdens the awareness of a large number of voters. It is stimulated by the ruling parties with their election posters saying: "HDZ knows what it will do, the Serbs will vote for themselves, and you?" This develops fear of behavior of other entities, or their authorities. That is why comments such as the following are frequent: "All the Serbs will vote for Krajisnik, so we must all vote for our candidate, if we don't wish to perish".

Pre-election comments of the citizens manifest fear of the possibility of loss of personal or national protection. There are quite a few comments which reveal doubts of the citizens that "everything has already been agreed somewhere". A typical indicator of this fear are comments in the streets, such as: "All the top echelons have already agreed what it will be like in the future". This points out to the possibility of abstention of the voters. The latest public opinion poll in Tuzla shows that 30 per cent of the voters are still in a dilemma - whether to go to the polls at all.

"I will not vote for anyone. It does not concern me any more" - this is a part of the comment especially of young citizens. Most frequently they are persons who have already made a step towards going abroad. A longer conversation with such persons most frequently reveals a clear fear of memories of war atrocities.

In pre-election comments many reveal fear of the awareness of futility of any political engagement - "we have voted last time, and nothing happened". Different interpretations of "the ruling and the local truth on war events" also affect the disposition of the voters. That is why one can often hear - "they don't know what was happening over here". There are also comments - "things won't get better" - which indicate pessimism of the voters.

Those who will vote will decide about the future of this country. Their votes will cause a series of consequences. Many act as if they are not aware of it. To the question - how do they see themselves and their environment in 2001, a disturbing number of voters say that they have no idea. They mostly describe what they would like to see. The fact that many voters have neither an image of themselves nor that of their environment, points out to to the fact that they do not link the act of voting with the consequences of their own choice of candidates and ideas of a party. That is why it should not be surprising if in these elections win not those who are better, but those chosen by our confused thoughts, which is an indicator of our immaturity to project the future which we can.

The elections will also show (im)maturity of Bosnia & Herzegovina in its struggle for its own truth, and not only the truth seen by politicians. The results of the election test will depend on the readiness of the citizens to resist repression, to accept the possibility to think differently from what they are expected to by those who manipulate them. There is a serious fear that the elections will be won by those who will manipulate us better, those who manipulate with fear of the citizens, their contemplative shortcomings, because the citizens themselves have allowed them to do it. That is why in the election campaign one can hardly ever hear answers and projections of - how will we live tomorrow?

VEHID JAHIC (AIM)