TOGETHER - SEPARATELY - PATCHED UP

"Holbrooking" of the Serbian Opposition

AIM, Belgrade, September 4, 1996

Those well versed claim that after a job well done in convincing Vuk Draskovic (SPO) and Zoran Djindjic (DS), after numerous negotiations, blackmails, exchanges, quarrels and ultimatums to finally sign a document on joining the coalition "Together" (Zajedno), Vesna Pesic, President of the Civil Alliance of Serbia (GSS) exclaimed with satisfaction: "I am a better negotiator than Richard Holbrooke".

She had harder time with Draskovic and Djindjic than Holbrooke with Milosevic and Tudjman. In August, when the coalition "Together" was literally connected to the life-support machine, one of them took a break in Greece and the other in Milocer. When in Belgrade, they "talked" mostly over the fax machines, specially the mediating one in the GSS, through which all messages and offers went. That fax machine became red-hot last weekend with the approaching expiry of every sensible deadline to patch up the whole project or finally declare that the coalition "Together" was no more. Finally, Vesna Pesic managed to bring her mediating mission to a successful conclusion. Owing to her "fax diplomacy", the coalition "Together" is somehow going on, although the name "glued" or "patched up" would suit it better.

Kostunica Alone

All that was patched up was put on paper which Draskovic, Djindjic and Vesna Pesic signed on Monday evening. That document specifies quite precisely the issues that for so long were the subject of greatest controversy - which key will be used for the division of deputy mandates and in what way. It was agreed that 54 percent would go to the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO), 41 percent to the Democratic Party (DS) and five percent of the electoral loot to the Civil Alliance of Serbia. The document also envisages the possibility of Kostunica's Democratic Alliance of Serbia joining the coalition. In such a case, as stipulated, the cards would be reshuffled and the SPO and GSS would get one half of deputy mandates, while the DS and DSS would share the other half.

Only a day after the signing the document, Zoran Djindjic once again invited Vojislav Kostunica to join the coalition "Together" and generously offered to split with him evenly "their half". Kostunica was sent a message that the coalition door will remain ajar up to September 7. After that date the offer for the DSS would no longer be valid. However, already the next day Milorad Jovanovic, spokesman for the DSS, stated that both at the federal and local levels this party would go to the elections alone and that this decision was at the same time binding on all local party leaderships. The second part of Jovanovic's statement indicates that things will not proceed smoothly as many DSS local boards have long ago declared their support of coalition cooperation.

Estimates are that consistency in this newly created situation would almost certainly mean political suicide. Kostunica made his last attempt not to go to the elections alone, but also to avoid Draskovic, last weekend when leaders of the DS and the DSS met. On that occasion Kostunica offered Djindjic a coalition of two democratic parties, for which the DSS leadership declared its support choosing opting for the following reasoning as its final electoral position - either only with Djindjic, or absolutely alone. Djindjic refused this offer stating that his Democratic Party had to appear at the elections under the name "Together" and that it was the only acceptable alternative irrespective of the parties in this coalition.

Those claiming to be "well versed" say that last weekend apart from Djindjic-Kostunica meeting there were many other secret meetings and much persuading at different levels at which final scene for the election race was being set. According to those same "well informed" sources people from the American Embassy in Belgrade also played the role of Holbrooke by allegedly trying to make Vuk Draskovic turn his conditional requests regarding the coalition "Together" into willingness to reach a compromise, so as to keep the coalition alive. Irrespective of the truthfulness of these claims the compromise was finally reached.

At one moment there were speculations that Draskovic would definitely leave the unsuccessful project "Together" and go over to the Socialists with the help of the "New Democracy" and its leader Dusko Mihajlovic who, on several occasions, sent open invitations to Draskovic to leave the "bad company" he was keeping and turn to the "true forces of peace and progress" in Serbia. The syntagma "bad company" meant all those who "roasted a steer on Pale" and opposed the signing of the Dayton Agreement, primarily Zoran Djindjic. Such and similar statements which came from various corners, only incited inter-party misunderstandings and reactivated the buried geyser of their leaders' vanity.

Forces of "Potential Fishermen" Growing

The signing of the coalition agreement was preceded by the dismantling of a mine called "Paroski". The SPO declared that there could be no coalition as long as the DS insisted that their joint candidate on the list should be Milan Paroski, a one time republican deputy who joined the Democrats several months earlier, but kept in his political vocabulary terms characteristic of excessive political radicalism.

Finally, Djindjic agreed to sacrifice Paroski and take him off his list. In the name of that same coalition cooperation some other prominent DS members, who once defected leaving Draskovic and joining Djindjic, also gave up their nominations.

Because of many wagging tongues which, particularly in August, ripped apart the coalition "Together" most of "Holbrooking" could have been useless had there not been for the increased local pressure on the party leaderships. Municipal leaderships persistently called on their Belgrade headquarters with demands to stop obstructing what they have started long ago - to form communal coalitions. The pressure from the "grassroots" started to resemble the one time column "Reactions and Reverberations" by means of which the leaderships from all parts of the former state were at one time called to "unite and come to their senses".

It seems that the SPO, DS and DSS communal branches were much faster in using their computers for the elections then their Belgrade headquarters. From the moment the conditions for federal elections were drastically changed by gerrymandering, everything pointed to the fact with an opposition divided into three or four groups, in the end the SPS (with less than 40 percent of received votes ) would get more than 55 percent of deputy mandates, i.e. over 60 percent of seats in Parliament (out of 108). The same electoral mathematics showed that things would be fundamentally different with only two strong opposition blocks against the Socialists. In that case the number of deputy seats would be approximately equal to the number of votes won. Until recently the opposition leaders found it difficult to adjust their behaviour to this simple mathematics.

The final formation of the coalition "Together", two months before the November elections, makes it possible to finally make out what the electoral race will look like. The Socialists and the JUL will be on the one side and on the other the coalition "Together" and the Radicals. Kostunica's DSS will place its head under the electoral guillotine alone and thus contribute to further narrowing of the political scene. Now, the coalition "Together" should, as soon as possible, join the electoral campaign which has started long ago and is rather slack. Maybe it is because the Socialists have long ago seen themselves as winners of the November elections realizing how successful the potential coalition partners are in working against each other. At one moment, in mid August, it seemed that this time they would not even need the media blockade to win the elections and that instead it would suffice to give daily quotations of what Draskovic, Djindjic, Kostunica or their closest associates say about each other.

In the their campaign so far the Socialist did not fall upon the Radicals who have perhaps benefited most from squabbles within the coalition "Together". Seselj started his campaign long ago and at the very outset made it known that he was going to the elections on his own. At the moment he is waging two campaigns - one in the Republic of Srpska, where he is trying to help the SDS, and one in Serbia where he always talks about two equally important opponents - the Socialist and the coalition "Together".

In the weak points of this coalition Seselj saw his chance to finally occupy the safe second political position in Serbia. Therefore, it seems that the Radicals assail more the coalition "Together" than the Socialists. Their rallies are dedicated to the descriptions of all Vuk's "betrayals" and Djindjic's "knavish" inclinations.

Finally, there remains a dilemma what is the coalition "Together", which is starting this race rather belatedly and with an overcasting shadow, capable of achieving at the forthcoming elections. Among the eventual (and so far undenied) pre-election options is the one on possible engagement of the former Governor Dragoslav Avramovic as the coalition frontman which, according to many, could make these elections more interesting and dynamic than it seemed possible at first.

Undoubtedly, the hardest task ahead of the coalition will be a repeated attempt at attracting those who have long ago became embittered over the behaviour of the authorities, but also additionally disappointed by the behaviour of the opposition, and who have consequently firmly decided to go fishing on the day of the elections. During August the party of potential fishermen, who will abstain from voting, has significantly grown. Nevertheless, all the analyses show that all members of this fishermen's party are "partly Socialists" as every major abstention of constituents can only be to their benefit.

(AIM) Nenad Lj.Stefanovic