TIMES OF ECONOMIC REASONING

AIM, Skopje, September 4, 1996

Hasan Muratovic, Bosnian Prime Minister who visited Macedonia in late August, asked the press not to call his people the Moslems (the Macedonian spelling does not even allow capital M), but the Bosniacs, as that was their name. It turned out later on that judging by statements of Muratovic and his host Branko Crvenkovski, the name of the majority nation in B&H was the only "disputable" issue between the two states.

Just some three or four days later, the Yugoslav Prime Minister Radoje Kontic paid a visit to Macedonia. His visit was preceded by the long awaited start of the Joint Inter-state Commission for the Demarcation of the Macedonian-Yugoslav Border, which is interpreted in Skopje as a good sign that this open issue is soon to be "closed", as well as that mutual relations could proceed without unnecessary burdens and political disputes. This, naturally, means that the gravest problem, that of the succession of the former joint state, is postponed for some better times when collective solution might be sought in accordance with the international regulations.

In other words, relations of Macedonia with its closest neighbour and a more distant one in the north, could continue without superfluous political frustrations, while the fact that the Macedonian chief of diplomacy, Ljubomir Frckovski did not figure prominently during the mentioned first, and according to some, historic meetings, suggests how should bilateral relations of Skopje with the mentioned countries develop in future. After all, this is also suggested by the composition of the visiting delegations, as well as carefully chosen protocollary duties and contents of discussions. Namely, both Prime Ministers were accompanied by their economic elites, resolved not to waste any time and to translate the favourable political climate and high level of understanding into specific agreements and promising plans for economic cooperation.

Although the mentioned first inter-state contacts at the level of Prime Ministers point to the direction in which the relations between other countries of the region could evolve, they also warn that the establishment of economic ties, just like those at the political level, will necessarily proceed with different intensity and meander along varied paths.

Namely, the first Macedonian-Bosnian-Herzegovinian summit progressed with much less pomposity but also less traumas then contacts with the FRY. In any case, the way these countries became estranged was also less traumatic. Objectively speaking, in the last months before the war Macedonia and B&H were in a relatively similar position and faced with the same dilemmas. Their leaders Gligorov and Izetbegovic suggested an integral plan for the overcoming of a galloping crisis. Later on, after all that had happened, there was no reason for disputes. True enough, there was some resignation on the Bosnian side because of, as they saw it, excessively principled stance of Macedonia to the Bosnian war. As often as not it could be concluded that the Bosniacs were somewhat disappointed with the degree of hospitality extended to the refugees.

Naturally, there remains to be seen whether they were right as Macedonia, caught in a tight spot of double embargo, will have to take care of its own problems and, occasionally, walk the tightrope. As far as the refugees are concerned, the Macedonian state firmly (even applying repressive measures) opposed demonstrations of collective and individual national intolerance towards the Bosniacs. However, all this proved negligible when it came to economic interests. According to Hasan Muratovic, B&H eagerly awaits Macedonian builders to join the reconstruction of the war devastated areas so that a major part of his stay in Skopje, he personally, as well as his associates, dedicated to the renown construction enterprise "Granit" which, incidentally, left an extraordinary impression on the pre-Olympic Sarajevo.

Naturally, economic relations of Skopje and Belgrade are on a higher level. Indeed, they have not been broken all these years. Functioning in a symbiosis of sorts, economies of the two countries fed each other and thus survived the sanctions and embargo. Now the Macedonian and Serbian-Montenegrin businessmen, using their nomenclatures, are dying to show the compatibility of the two industries and logical mutual links. Generally speaking, they have very concrete grounds for such claims in the technological interdependence and transport infrastructure. Consequently, the Federal Prime Minister Kontic during his guest tour in Skopje mostly spoke of "creating the conditions for a free circulation of goods, capital and people between the two countries". A first step to that end is the establishment of a free trade zone by the end of 1999.

This high degree of cooperation recommendable in all other instances, raises here a rather delicate question. Although an identical agreement had already been signed with Slovenia, the announcement alone of opening of the northern border is estimated in some Macedonian circles as a serious threat to the state sovereignty. Some more informed people even speculate that this has something to do with the alleged Dayton concessions granted to Slobodan Milosevic in relation to the Macedonian economic area. The opposition thinks that excessive economic rapprochement with Serbia - calling the free trade zone a customs union - necessarily leads to political integration which would mean the pushing or falling of Macedonia into old traps. Assuming that the opposition is slightly exaggerating as usual, it is still possible in most cases to recognize the interdependence between the fire and the smoke.

Author: TOMI ALEKSOVSKI