PURE MACHIAVELLIAN OR LEFT NATIONALIST

Who will be Member of B&H Presidency from RS

Out of four candidates, only Momcilo Krajisnik, and Dr Mladen Ivanic stand a chance. Krajisnik is the only Serb politician from the current administration who would to a certain extent be accepted by the authorities of the B&H Federation, and especially by the leaders of the Party of Democratic Action and Alija Izetbegovic himself. If elected, Dr Ivanic will not be too demanding concerning economic relations and interests, and he will fight for Republic of Srpska and its statehood to the extent which will be acceptable for world political power-wielders and will not get official Belgrade into trouble.

AIM Banja Luka, July 29, 1996

No matter which candidate for the member of the Presidency of Bosnia & Herzegovina from Republic of Srpska will be elected, it is already certain that he will be characterized by two attributes: he will be of Serb nationality and an economist by trade and profession. In the alphabetical order, the following are the candidates for the post in the Presidency of B&H: Prof. Dr. Mladen Ivanic; Momcilo Krajisnik, M.S.; Branko Latinovic, M.S.; and Milivoje Zaric, M.S. Based on all parametres which serve as a basis for the assessment of the state of mind of the electorate, popularity of political parties, personalities of the candidates, rating of programmes and causes the voters will choose - with a high degree of certainty it can be said that chances of winning the elections of the four competitors are exceptionally unequal. The first two candidates on the list - Dr Ivanic and Mr Krajisnik are clearly distinguished from the other two. One of them will be a member of the joint Presidency of B&H and, after six months, the President of this body - while the chances of the second two are more than slim.

Branko Latinovic is the candidate of the Serb Party of Krajina and Posavina, and so far only one other party supported his candidacy - the National Party of Republic of Srpska. Latinovic was born in 1956 in Prijedor. He graduated and got his master's degree in Banja Luka, and so far he was mostly employed in banks and in the past year of two at the University: he is a senior assistent lecturer at the Philosophic Faculty in Banja Luka and a lecturer at the Business College in Prijedor. He was not engaged in politics so far and he is almost unknown to the public. The facts that he is a candidate of a minor party founded just before the elections and that it is extremely regionally oriented do not offer Mr Latinovic practically any chances to succeed, except if his very participation is not considered to be a success.

Everything seems to point out that Milivoje Zaric will also have to be satisfied with the repetition of the Olympic principle: it is important to participate, and not to win. This man who was born in Tuzla but lives and works in Banja Luka, who has for many years been a high official of the Municipal Assembly of Banja Luka, is a candidate of the Serb Patriotic Party (SPAS), a poor and insufficiently well-organized political power. Mr Zaric graduated at the Agricultural-Economic Faculty in Belgrade, and got his master's degree in Subotica, and at the age of 46 he had not succeeded to impose himself as a recognizable figure to the public, neither in the professional nor in the political sense. Judging by the political program of the party whose candidate he is, Mr Zaric could only take away a few per cent of the votes from the favourite of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS), Momcilo Krajisnik.

The Serb Democratic Party of Serb Lands (SDS SZ) as the ruling party of RS is officially called, chose as its most powerful trump card Momcilo Krajisnik, the current Chairman of the National Assembly of RS: of all the candidates, Mr Krajisnik is by far the best known, which gives him great advantage in advance. In the past almost six years he has been the second member of the tandem Karadzic-Krajisnik, the double-scull with a coxswain in Belgrade. As nowhere else in the world, the Chairman of the parliament of RS was obviously the "numera duo" in the state and political establishment of the Bosnian Serbs. Both vice-presidents of RS ranked behind him according to power, influence, presence in the media. All prime ministers of RS, except perhaps to a certain extent Rajko Kasagic were in his shadow and with minor political rating and power in decision-making in relation to him.

Machiavellian

Except for having been an activist of the Socialist Alliance of the Working People in former Yugoslavia, Momcilo Krajisnik had not been seriously engaged in politics before foundation of the SDS. He made an exceptional career in the SDS: in just a few months from a municipal official, he became the Chairman of the Assembly. The fact that he was a friend of the first man of the SDS, Dr Radovan Karadzic, probably contributed to this dashing career. This acquaintance turned into friendship during months in 1984 spent in investigative prison in Sarajevo, where they met when they had both been accused in a financial scandal. They were not convicted on the occasion, but they obviously got to know each other well.

Krajisnik manifested his political gift in the Assembly of B&H, chairing its marathon and inefficient sessions. His prolonging the sessions became known, but he became famous for the way he formulated conclusions which offered pretext to all kinds of interpretations and implementation. He improved this skill to perfection in the National Assembly of RS.

Although Momcilo Krajisnik has a master's degree in economic science (he got it a few days before the elections in 1990), he does not make the impression of an intellectual. Neither is his behavior too refined, although he is not strikingly rough, or impolite either, nor does he make an effort to make an impression of a learned man, an erudite. Nevertheless, Mr Krajisnik has the reputation of the most difficult and the firmest negotiator of the Serb party. Almost all international mediators who left written testimonies about their job and experience with Krajisnik certified this. At the very beginning of the war and the first negotiations with Lord Carrington, Cyrus Vance, Cutillero, and later with Lord Owen, Yasushi Akashi and others, he earned the nickname "Mister NO".

Since he has no erudition or diplomatic experience, it is logical to wonder what is keeping this Sarajevan at the top of Serb politics in RS. Although he has probably not even read Machiavelli's "Ruler", he perfectly applies his recipe in his specific political engagement: "to distinguish politics and morality", "their starting points are different, but it should never be publicly stated", "the aim justifies the means", etc. Krajisnik is a politician-pragmatist who understands politics as technology, as mere carrying out assignements, regardless of whether these assignements or objectives were formulated by a single man, an agency, or history itself. He is not inclined to the world of ideas, principles, not even politics as a science and ethics, he is closer to the instinct of self-preservation, the slogan "an eye for an eye", so he is more inclined to identify politics with trade. He is the only Serb politician from the current set who would be in one way or the other accepted by the authorities of the Federation of B&H, and especially by the leaders of the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) and Alija Izetbegovic himself. If nothing else, with him they will know what they can and what they cannot expect and how far they can go in haggling.

Starting from personal inclinations, political capabilities and acquired experience, the SDS chose its second man as its candidate, indeed after Karadzic's pacification, the very first, for the post of the member of the Presidency of B&H. If Krajisnik becomes the Serb representative in this joint body, it is realistic to exprect that he will firmly advocate Serb interests as the SDS sees and formulates them, that he will do his best to reinforce statehood of RS to its final independence and union with Serbia, that he will fight a persistent battle "in the trenches" with his colleagues in the Presidency B&H. It is more than certain that he will not oppose opening of any issue, but also that thanks to him, almost none of them will ever be concluded, resolved and put on the shelf.

Candidate of the Radicals

But, along with the story about war profiteering which accompanies his name among the people, his marked unpopularity in (Bosnian) Krajina should be emphasized. Moreover, he is believed to be the main designer and actor of the Sarajevo-Romanija lobby who has done everything to make life miserable to the people in Krajina: to exploit it economically, to underestimate it politically, to abuse it militarily, etc. Momcilo Krajisnik himself contributed to this by "permitting" himself to react nervously to some statements and proposals of deputies from Krajina on several occasions while sessions of the National Assembly of RS were covered by television. Voters from this part of RS, assisted by about ten newly formed parties with the seat in Banja Luka and inclined to Krajina regionalism, will not forgive him for it.

Momcilo Krajisnik has made yet another mistake - he had promised what he could not fulfill, that is, he had underestimated intentions of the international community in respect to united Sarajevo, so he promised the Serbs in this city and the surroundings that they would remain there after the war, regardless of its outcome. Nowadays, more than 100 thousand Sarajevo Serbs are dispersed in refugee camps around Eastern Bosnia, Posavina, Herzegovina, and hardly any of them will give their votes to Momcilo Krajisnik. For them, he is the personification of a politician inclined to give false promises, and insensitive to suffering of ordinary people.

Krajisnik's another weakness, in relation to Dr Ivanic, is his complicated discourse, so that in case of a possible television dual, inclination of the public, i.e. of potential voters, would go to his rival. It should be said that, apart from the SDS, Momcilo Krajisnik will most probably have the support of the Serb Radical Party of RS (SRS RS) which does not have its own candidate for this post, especially since the Serb Radicals have always thought that Momcilo Krajisnik was an honest Serb nationalist and Orthodox believer, with firm and pure rightist convictions, and he has always more frequently and to a greater extent met their demands than Karadzic.

Observed idealistically, Dr Ivanic is a candidate and man with the greatest chances to represent Serbs in the future Presidency. He is the youngest candidate - born in 1958 in Sanski Most, but spent his entire life in Banja Luka. He is the best educated of all the candidates, the only doctor of economic sciences, he is employed at the Economic Faculty in Banja Luka and he is seriously engaged in scientific work. Although the youngest, he has certain political experience. Almost two years he was a member of the collective Presidency of the Socialist Republic of B&H - in 1989 and 1990. His political promotion was very quick. At the age of 31, he was by far the youngest member of this "brain trust" in the crucial period: during introduction of multi-party system into the political life of the former B&H, so that he has experience in dialogue with representatives of other nations.

His eloquence and acute (verbal) reflexes give him an advantage in all personal measuring out of capabilities, which always makes a favourable impression on the majority of the public, that is of the electorate. Dr Ivanic is the joint candidate of a coalition of parties - Alliance for Peace and Progress, and a block - Democratic Patriotic Block, which means that the most numerous group of political parties and associations of citizens backs him, although it need not necessarily mean the most numerous group of voters. Along with it, Dr Ivanic publicly sharply denies that he belongs to any political party, and since intimate inclinations cannot be subject to critical objections anyway, his belonging to no party in particular or rather the fact that he is above all party interests makes an impression on the voters that interest of the people, of the whole, are more important for him than partial interests. And this may do very well in RS.

Irrationality

The young professor in these war years was not directly politically exposed and he unambiguously aligned himself neither to the left, nor to the right, and he maintained certain links with foreign countries, with Yugoslavia, and even with people from the Federation B&H, which certainly cannot be considered to be a vice. On the contrary. Dr Ivanic is not a man of firm convictions, not even political, he is not a fanatic of ideas, but nor is he a prisoner of practice, whichs means that he is not too skilfull in daily political engagement. Perhaps the best definition of his political conviction could be fitted into the following sketch - he is a national democrat of leftist inspiration. This reflective, ideological and political position makes him open to new options and an exceptionally tolerant politician.

For people of democratic political culture, i.e. value, this may be a virtue, but for the Serb populace west of the Drina, and after all, for all the Dinaric violent characters in the Balkans, this can be a sign of weakness, insecurity, which will make the voters in this space cautious in possible placing trust in Dr Ivanic. Authoritativeness and "firmness" were always highly esteemed here, and Dr Ivanic is not a man who knows how to be, nor can he pretend to be anything of the kind and this is a serious vice for a politician. Apart from this, there are other circumstances which do not speak in favour of this economist from Banja Luka and aspirant for the post he had once already held. Dr Ivanic has never been a number one, the central and the most responsible person, but most frequently directed his actions according to instructions and demands of someone else, in other words he liked to have if not "daddy", at least an "elder brother" telling him what to do. At the moment, he has two elder brothers: Predrag Radic, head of the coalition called the Democratic Patriotic Block, and Zivko Radisic, head of the coalition called Alliance for Peace and Progress, whose joint candidate he is. He also has a father: Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic. This latter fact can be decisive. As soon as the SDS finds this out and reveals that he is a protege and favourite of Belgrade, all so-called patriots will circle the number before Momcilo Krajisnik's name; not so much because they like Krajisnik and because they are with their hearts and minds in favour of his program, but because they do not like Milosevic, and therefrom neither do they like the one or the ones he supports around here.

This is the irrational aspect which one must warn against and which may prevail in favout of Momcilo Krajisnik. Along with it, those who know Dr Ivanic well are certain that, in order to be a supreme politician he lacks the dose of impudence which makes an impression on the so-called ordinary people, and that is what majority of the voters are, of an energetic person who knows what he wants and how that can be achieved, but not to appear as a mere careerist or unscrupulous manipulator and Machiavellian. In competition with Momcilo Krajisnik, his only true rival for the post, Dr Ivanic will experience the power of electronic media. Of course, he will not lack media support, but from Serbia, while local television will not give him any more space than determined by the rules. Besides, however unpopular Krajisnik may be in Krajina, Ivanic is just as unknown in eastern Bosnia and in Herzegovina, so he will collect his votes in Krajina and Posavina, and some around Semberija, along with Mr Latinovic and Mr Zaric, with the only difference that they may take away many more votes from Krajisnik than from Ivanic.

In any case, Dr Ivanic would be a considerably more cooperative member of the Presidency than Krajisnik, so that representatives of other two nations, especially the Bosniacs, would have much less reason for obstruction of operation of this body; it would be more difficult for them to find arguments for their opposition to and accusations of the Serb party for blocking the work in case Ivanic is elected instead of Krajisnik. Aware of the difficult economic situation in RS, Dr Ivanic will not be too demanding concerning economic relations and interests, and he will fight for the RS and its statehood only to the extent which will be acceptable for world political power-wielders and which will not get official Belgrade into trouble.

In any case, whoever will be elected - Ivanic or Krajisnik - must be prepared in advance to take upon himself the odium of the public which will be directed to seek the guilty party for many failures of the policy and the politicians from the entity in representatives in the joint bodies and even among members of the Presidency of B&H, designed according to the pattern drawn in Dayton.

(AIM) Miladin Kostovic