THE FIRST IN A ROW OF CONCESSIONS

Karadzic's Withdrawal.

Holbrooke's latest mission in the Balkans anticipates a new cycle of pressure in order to bring Radovan Karadzic to the dock at court in the Hague. And, obviously, we will not have to wait long, because America has already made it known that it was not too enthusiastic about the results its negotiator had achieved in Belgrade

AIM Banja Luka, July 20, 1996

Radovan Karadzic is not "number one" in Republika Srpska (RS) any more. This is the result of the latest visit of American negotiator Richard Holbrooke to Belgrade and his "confidential talks" with Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, guarantor of the Serb party in Dayton. Time will show what will and how actually take place, but it is a fact that the first news on Karadzic's "abdication" on Serb Radio-Television (SRT) from Pale was not accompanied by his photo, which would have been quite unusual so far, but it is in accordance with the signed document which excludes even such "presence" in public of the man who was just until recently president of RS.

The international community headed by diplomacy of the USA as the croupier has spun the roulette of Karadzic's political destiny a long time ago, but many have placed their bets in the name of the leader of Bosnian Serbs, but himself - especially Milosevic, Holbrooke, Bildt and Frowick. The little ball stopped on the number everyone had known in advance, even the onlooker Karadzic, although he had not shown it during his two recent appearances in public - at the meeting of the Main Board of his ruling Serb Democratic Party (SDS) and at its convention which followed, when he was re-elected its President.

Only incurable national-optimists refused to believe it, but this is part of the local political folklore, and not of the policy of the great and the powerful in which small Balkan fish are frying. The whole "operation" was for more than two months kept on the level of forced "reactions of equals" by the political leadership of the RS with the help of their undoubtedly faithful media. Karadzic had even offered reconciliation to the international community from the platform of the Convention of the SDS, under condition that the world stopped "further degradation of the Serb nation". At the time, a semi-official story circled Pale about a list of conditions which the president of the RS had allegedly given Bildt as an offer for his withdrawal. The attempt to transfer his undoubted charisma, at least "for the sake of the people" and the so-called will of the people, into the background by his election for president of the SDS - was just a futile attempt to postpone the end.

It was not necessary to be very wise to understand what Holbrooke's new visit to Belgrade meant. Especially in view of the precisely timed visit to Pale of Milosevic's couple of envoys - Nikola Sainovic, Vice Federal Prime Minister and Jovica Stanisic, head of the Serbian intelligence service. The head of the intelligence service is a confidential person of the Serbian President, with references dating back to the time of the "hostage scandal" in Pale, after which Milosevic earned a few points as an unquestionable mentor of the leadership in Pale.

In this case, formally in the capacity of a witness, Slobodan Milosevic signed a document which recommends him to the judgement of history and may be even to the Hague Tribunal, as an accomplice, ultimately as a consultant or the order-issuing authority for certain deeds which Karadzic is accused of by the indictment from the Hague. Because, it is a question what will happen when world diplomacy exerts new pressure which should result in Karadzic's appearance in the dock in the Hague. And this is something we will probably not have to wait for long since from the other side of the ocean reactions have already started to appear showing that America is not too satisfied with the outcome of Holbrooke's latest mission. There is plenty of reason for such an allegation especially since Holbrooke himself had given a statement in this sense before he left for Washington. It is quite justified to assume that new steps have already been planned in "competent offices".

One of these steps is certainly the threat with sanctions to be imposed both on Yugoslavia and the RS. Holbrooke's answer to the question whether Karadzic's withdrwal meant that reintroduction of the regime of sanctions was finally taken off the agenda was short and quite clear: "No!"

For the time being, however, unhidden discontent and wrath caused by Karadzic's departure remains in the air. An anonymous leader of the municipal board of the SDS in Pale, sublimated this revolt and fear in a sentence saying that "the president should not have knuckled under the American and Milosevic's pressure, because they wish nothing well to our people". And he added: "We know that the pressure was intensive and unendurable, but we still believe that he should have resisted. As it is, the next step of the Americans will be the Hague. And then, it will be farewell to the Serbs from the Republika Srpska".

According to the already well-established pattern, departure of Karadzic is presented to the people as a sacrifice "in the interest of the Serb nation and the RS". How far national interests can be stretched was clearly shown by numerous developments, including the war which was also "waged in the interest of the people". And, let us be reminded by a single example only - the people have once "certified" their interest by having voted against Vance-Owen's plan in the referendum, although Karadzic had, also "in the interest of the people", signed that very document.

(AIM) Velimir Ilic