JOINT OPPOSITION LIST-THE ONLY WEAPON AGAINST

Pre-election Realignments in Montenegro

DPS ABSOLUTISM

AIM Podgorica, June 29, 1996

Pessimists had gloomy predictions that the division of Montenegro into seven electoral units, apart from the federal one, would apply to the republican elections as well. This time they too have underestimated the creative potentials of the local authorities. There is no more guessing: unless some miracle happens, in the fall Montenegro will be fragmented into fourteen electoral districts. The Democratic Party of Socialist will put forward this proposal at the next Republican Assembly, and since it has absolute majority there, this verdict can be considered final.

For its information, the opposition received the overall scheme of future electoral units, with precise calculations on the number of deputies to be elected. There are slim chances for the Parliament to change much in this respect. Illusions of the leaders of opposition parliamentary parties (People's Party, Liberals and Social-Democrats) that they could succeed in persuading President Bulatovic in direct discussions to approve the application of the proportionate system to these elections too, with Montenegro as one electoral unit, went up in smoke. After meeting with the opposition leaders, the President of all the nationals of Montenegro calmly stated that the ruling party was firm in its decision on the fragmentation of the Republic into 14 electoral units, with the following explanation: "In view of the support it enjoys among the citizens, DPS has equal, or to put it better, greater right to take account of its own interests".

The whole operation with the classification of the electoral base was diligently carried out in line with this "or better said - greater right of DPS". Proceeding from the results of the last elections, with the help of computer simulations, analysts have calculated that under the new election rules it was possible to win absolute power with only some thirty percent of votes. According to studies, that is approximately the upper limit of the Democratic Party of Socialists. "The new proposal is an unbelievable hybrid between the proportionate and majority systems; an instrument which will do what voters won't. This is a majority electoral system in which one doesn't vote for a person, but nevertheless, there is no second round. It is all programmed for the one who wins minimum advantage to take it all. By comparing the results of the last elections and dividing them into fourteen electoral units, it is obvious that the DPS will get 39,485 votes at the very start. To fabricate so many votes in tiny Montenegro is no joke: at the last elections this party won the total of 126,000 votes", explains Dr.Dragisa Burzan, Vice-President of the Social-Democratic Party.

In the first place the manner in which Montenegro has been fragmented shows what will be the basis of the overall DPS pre-election strategy. For some time now, Bulatovic and his men have been trying to explain that amendments to the electoral rules were primarily inspired by their concern over the representation of "national minorities and groups". In that sense, they used a handy bait. The communes of Rozaje and Plav, with Moslem majority population have been joined into one electoral base. Similar thing happened with the Albanians.

Ulcinj, where they make a majority, is a separate electoral unit, while Malesija, predominantly inhabited by the Albanians, has been separated from Podgorica. It seems that the Party of Democratic Action and the Democratic Alliance of Albanians will truly have a chance of getting into the Parliament. The DPS compassion has but a modest price: even if all the Albanian and Moslem national parties won every deputy place in each of the four electoral units, only eight of their representatives would, all in all, find their place in the Parliament. There they would be welcomed by soft words of the DPS absolute majority.

And not only that. It is common knowledge that at the last elections a significant number of Moslems and Albanians voted for the Liberals and Social-Democrats. With such carefully designed electoral geography, in places where it doesn't stand a chance, the ruling party is inciting a struggle for votes between the Montenegrin civil parties and the national Albanian and Moslem parties.

Corresponding measures have also been taken against the membership of the People's Party. Those well versed are familiar with the fact that the followers of the People's Party and the Democratic Party of Socialists are dangerously undecided as to whom to side with. Reliable information from the ground indicate that after the uncompromising parliamentary address of the People's Party, a significant number of Serb oriented intellectuals backed away from Bulatovic and turned to professor Kilibarda.

However, the ninth party with the Serbian name in its title was formed these days in Montenegro. Almost all of these parties came into being by seceding from the People's Party, but likewise all of them accuse Dr.Kilibarda of his party not being "Serbian" enough any longer. As a contribution to this operation, the ruling party lifted its ban on Vojislav Seselj's visits to Montenegro. Two years ago, the leader of the Radicals was expelled from Montenegro, as a subversive element. Thus, the blockade was abolished and in return the Voivode, already in his first appearances showed an envious enthusiasm for picking a fight with the leader of the People's Party and his closest associates. At the same time vis-a-vis the authorities he opted for constructive criticism.

A radical wing which disassociated itself from Seselj when he was after Milosevic, regularly informs the Serbs in the state TV News that Dr.Kilibarda has changed faith and became - a liberal. This whole operation is carried out under an old-time anti-bureaucratic working slogan: the People's Party base is O.K. - it is the leadership that should be changed. Naturally, the authorities turned this too to their benefit. The most important thing is to create an atmosphere in which the People's Party, charged for treason, will not dare cooperate with other Montenegrin parties, but will instead engage in a shouting match with various radicals as to who is a greater Serb. Things are not easy for professor Kilibarda. "If we counted only the votes we can get, then we would be able to speak of the risks a joint list implies. However, the People's Party is always more concerned with its future than with the immediate electoral scores. I think that the formation of a joint opposition block of democratic parties of all nations and faiths would be the best way to get the DPS off the people's backs", claims the People's Party leader.

He personally, he says, will support a single opposition list: after an all-exhaustive debate, the Main Board of the Party will bring final decision. It seems that the People's Party is not quite certain where to turn. One of its most esteemed representatives, head of the deputies' club in the Federal Parliament, Dr.Novica Stanic, proposes a formation of an opposition alliance in Montenegro, Serbia and FRY which would jointly boycott the elections. Stanic thinks that in that case the international community would exert pressure on Podgorica and Belgrade authorities to urgently organize normal elections.

The idea of a boycott is not to the liking of the leader of Montenegrin liberals, Slavko Perovic. "That would be the worst possible move to make. We are not in the same position as the Serbian opposition - we are strong", claims Perovic. The President of the Liberal Alliance is perhaps the one who views the autumns elections with greatest optimism. According to him DPS decided to the change the system in panic. "The ruling party is no longer able of faking the democracy. The uniting of opposition is in no way to its benefit as it knows that the opposition government would act harmoniously and responsibly, just as it acted in Parliament. The DPS realized that the opposition parties will not mutually quarrel over the issues which are most important for the lives of Montenegrin citizens. When it became clear that the opposition will demand the holding of a fair referendum regarding the change of the state status of Montenegro, and only after all conditions for it are fulfilled, the DPS realized that it was no longer a laughing matter", thinks Slavko Perovic.

It seems that the Social-Democratic Party have also reached a turning-point. "The only correct answer would be a joint action of all opposition parties. Thus, once the absolute rule of the DPS is abolished, conditions would be created for organizing fair elections", says Dr.Dragisa Burzan.

The opposition party experts seriously got down to their computers and their calculations show that a joint list can ensure the fall of the ruling party below the absolute majority. However, mathematical calculations cannot decipher the nuances in the mood of the Montenegrin electorate. No one knows for sure whether the Montenegrin society is mature enough to support an election community of heterogeneous opposition. The authorities are working hard on further deepening of local old-time internal divisions. After all it is their only hope if they want to march once again through the center, between the two divided blocks.

The opposition, somewhat too loudly, appeals for mutual concord - which is a rather clear sign that the shadow of mistrust is still omnipresent. Actually, none of the decisions are final yet. The party activists now envisage all possibilities. There is a possibility of the People's Party trying its luck on its own; of Liberals and Social-Democrats forming one block; and of the SDA and Democratic Alliance another. Also, the possibility of Liberal Alliance and Social-Democratic Party joining forces with the Party of Democratic Action and the Democratic Alliance cannot be ruled out.

Everything can turn around. Until now only the Liberals and the People's Party have reached agreement. The strongest opposition parties have publicly promised that none of them will form either pre-election or post-election coalition with the DPS. Perovic and Kilibarda have called all other opposition leaders to join the agreement so as to "create a united opposition block of technical nature against the ruling party and its absolutism". No one has officially joined them. The SDP says that it is willing to confirm that a coalition with the DPS is out of the question.

However, much more than the Liberals, the Social-Democrats are avert to closer cooperation with the People's Party, and judging by all they will demand precise definition of all conditions for joint action. In any case, the opposition leaders are not bored these days: meetings far from the public eye are in full swing. There was no public statement, but the sources on the ground have sent the latest news: professor Kilibarda, leader of the People's Party and Mehmed Bardhi, leader of the Democratic Alliance of Albanians, have reached a nonaggression agreement. Not long ago that would have been a sensation. Many similar detours are announced.

After a comprehensive action in producing a new Electoral Law, only the ruling party is in a state of nirvana. Not a word from anybody. Only, as the last precautionary measure three of its deputies sent a request to the competent address for the discontinuation of television broadcasts of assembly sessions until the end of the elections. Naturally, President Bulatovic generously promised that DPS will step down peacefully and with dignity if it happens to lose the majority.

Esad KOCAN