WAR, PEACE OR A STEP INTO THE 21ST CENTURY

How Serbia Sees Developments in Kosovo

AIM Belgrade, May 22, 1996

"I buy milk at Sead's, cheese at Mile's and beer at Zvone's", a Sarajevan said more than five years on the Second program of Radio Belgrade, trying to convince both himself and the reporter that this very situation spoke against war breaking out. At the same time, this touching evidence was denied by the smell of war which was already spreading through the capital of B&H. That same smell, a journalist of Russian NTV explained, is nowadays felt in Kosovo. In a comparison of Kosovo with Chechnya, that very same NTV announced a new war crisis.

Although there is almost no analysts in Serbia, nor a leader of a political party who really believes in the possibility of an armed conflict in Kosovo, although they express concern every day, unofficial signals from the West indicate just the opposite. Recently, a deputy of the European Parliament, in an unformal conversation with AIM journalists hinted that troubles there should be expected.

April explosions and murders in Kosovo appear to pessimists as an overture to a war denouement, although they were characterized by the authorities as terrorist attacks and considered to be incidents. In this context, speculations on alleged mobilization going on since recently in Serbia are not negligible. Sources close to Belgrade non-governmental organizations claim that during military drills in Kosovo, which were publicized in the press, incidents occur although they are not described more precisely. Excesses, according to these sources, imply raids of soldiers into Albanian villages and "intimidation and mistreatment of the population".

On the other hand, the fact that Western "flying diplomacy", apart from Bosnia, was entrusted with the task to deal with Kosovo (and that opening of a USA information centre in Pristina was announced for the end of May) speaks in favour of the allegation that the province is gaining in significance.

"Symptoms which existed on the eve of dissolution of former Yugoslavia are evidently on the scene", explains Ilija Djukic, former foreign minister in the government of Milan Panic. These signs, according to his opinion, refer to differences between federal units, international problems, great economic lagging behind. From the aspect of international relations, Ranko Petkovic, editor-in-chief of Belgrade magazine Medjunarodna politika (International Politics), does not believe in the possibility of a new war. Petkovic explains such stance with the allegation that a conflict in Kosovo would mean a new Balkan war. But, nevertheless, he permits the possibility of "straining of the conflict", which "by a law of connected vessels is linked to implementation od the Dayton accords which could very quickly shift the focus of the international community to Kosovo". In this context, the editor-in-chief of Medjunarodna politika forecasts more radical moves of the Albanian Kosovo opposition.

Kosovo "IRA"

Most of the analyses of the current political situation in Kosovo speak in favour of the fact that both parties are reexamining their strategy. According to some interpretations from the mentioned analyses, the Albanian party has reasons to be satisfied, because the issue of Kosovo has already been internationalized, but reason for concern too, because it was not stressed enough in Dayton accords. A special reason for concern is discontent with the international stance which was recently certified by German foreign minister Klaus Kinkel who said that "Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia".

Serbian authorities were internationally recognized, but resolution of the issue of Kosovo was put forward as an essential condition for its return into important institutions. In other words, Kosovo was included in the so-called external wall of the sanctions.

On the other hand, while theoreticians interpret the "ceasefire in Kosovo" (although last weekend there was an explosion close to the centre of Pristina) by arguing that a conflict does not suit either of the parties, on the other hand, a somewhat forgotten terminology was reintroduced in the Serbian political scene. Leader of the rightist Serbian Radical Party, Vojislav Seselj, apart from having offered services to the authorities in resolving the issue of Kosovo by giving a promise that as a "governor" he would resolve the southern problem in two years, began pointing his finger at traitors and nominating patriots again.

In a statement for AIM, the leader of the Radicals accuses the USA of having "organized terrorist actions in Kosovo", and the "treacherous opposition" which includes according to him the Serbian Revival Movement (SPO) of Vuk Draskovic and the Democratic Party (DS) of Zoran Djindjic, as forces to "which the unstable situation in Kosovo suits" just fine. Announcing new "terrorist actions", Seselj claims: "War is possible. I wish it could be avoided, but it is probable".

Speculations about possible cooperation of the Albanian political representatives from Kosovo and parties of civic orientation in Serbia are in a certain sense denied by the advisor of Vuk Draskovic, Milan Bozic. He says for AIM: "It is a sensitive issue. At this level, when the political program of the Albanian parties is based on separatism, cooperation is impossible". Bozic also considers recent deaths as a result of armed attacks a possible introduction to a war, but adds that "actions were directed by the militarist faction of Rugova's party, which even the President of the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo cannot control". Milan Bozic says that processes in the Albanian movement are similar to those which happened in Ireland or the Spanish ETA. Although advising the Albanian parties to join in the election campaign, this influential official of the SPO still does not believe that such a denouement has much chance to come about.

In an analogy with developments which preceeded breaking out of the war in former Yugoslavia, President of the DS, Zoran Djindjic, stresses that "danger of a war breaking out in present Yugoslavia is increasing". Djindjic accuses the regime for the "fire in Kosovo", which "cares for nothing but its own interests".

There are also forecasts of a return to patriotic trends based on the latest reactions of Serbian national parties (which in the beginning of the war conflict in Croatia and Bosnia were evwn more radical in this sense that the ruling SPS).

Dayton-isation of Kosovo

"Postponement" of resolution of the problems in Kosovo has nowadays reduced the possible denouement to the level of "fortune-telling". Ilija Djukic and Ranko Petkovic believe that only after the elections in Bosnia, the international community will direct all its forces towards Kosovo. Both analysts agree that the Western countries, primarily the USA, will not recede from decisions of Badinter's committee from 1992 which did not mention the seventh federal unit of former SFRY. Interests of great powers, such as military units stationed in the region, or the experience acquired in Bosnia, will force Belgrade and Pristina to a dialogue in the presence of a third party.

"The end will be in the talks which will not happen now, probably not even in this decade or this century", that is how Dragoljub Micunovic, the first man of a recently registered Democratic Centre (DC), sees things. Micunovic predicts two possibilities. The first is in a broader regional integration (Balkan reintegration) of politically and economically connected small states. The second solution which, according to Micunovic, should not be avoided is "separation". At the same time, Dragoljub Micunovic, expressing antagonism towards separatism, compares Kosovo with Chechnya (like the Russian journalist from the beginning of the text). Nevertheless, the President of the DC does not believe that "radicalization of the situation" could bring "positive points" to either of the parties.

The leader of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) Vojislav Kostunica also belongs to this group of opinions concerning the denouement. Kostunica does not believe in the possibility of a war actually breaking out and thinks that the postponement suits both parties, just as it suits the West. It is convenient for the Serbs, as he says, because "suppressing of complex problems always helps Milosevic", and for the Albanians because "they believe that the maximum of their demands have better chances to be met later". And finally, it suits the Western countries because "logically the issue of Bosnia and Dayton postpone the issue of Kosovo", which will, he stresses, "prevent war", but "threaten the almost non-existent democracy in Serbia".

Therefore, there is an undivided opinion that from the three possible options - war, peace or a step into the 21st century, the optimum would be the second. But, if the comparison with Chechnya stands, warnings like the one uttered by Vesna Pesic ("Situation in Kosovo threatens to revive nationalistic ideology in Serbia which will set off new mass killings") is more than alarming.

(AIM) Danica Vucenic