IMPLEMENTATION OF DAYTON ACCORDS IN B&H

Surgery was Successful, but the Patient Died!

(It is not a problem of therapy, but of the patient)

AIM Tuzla. May 22, 1996

Pages of the calendar adopted in Dayton are relentlessly turned, some deadlines have expired, the others are approaching, peace in Bosnia is progressing still with uncertain steps. From time to time, politicians in power in this space are given additional injections as a shock therapy, along with the inevitable "arm twisting" and threats with sanctions. As if it concerned some other country and not their own. The therapy remains the same, only the clinics change - Washington, Rome, Paris, Brussels... The effects are unfortunately almost none at all. Presumably, even the world has finally realized that it is not the problem of therapy, but of the patient.

Therefore, regardless of tens of agreements and accords, the Federation has practically not budged from the very starting point it found itself in at the moment armed conflicts were interrupted. Contracts on the ports of Ploce and Neum, how ever hard someone tried to present them as a sign of rapprochement between the two partners, are mildly speaking plain ridiculuous. It is well known who and with whose funds built the port of Ploce, just as it is known whose Neum is. That is why the information that Bosnian economy will be able to use a part of the capacities of the port of Ploce in the course of next year sounds absurd, and so does the news that the Croats will be allowed to pass unhindered through Neum.

The same refers to refugee camp Kuplensko. State media have made it public that an agreement was reached to have it closed down. The very same media have not made it public though that there is a second part to the agreement which states that people from this camp will be able to choose where they want to go - either to Kladusa or some third country. It is not hard to assume where most of these people will go, so this makes it clear why this part of the agreement was not publicized.

Or just another, at first sight insignificant detail from the life of the Federation. Even before the ink of Tudjman's and Izetbegovic's signatures on the latest Zagreb document dried, the sports' alliance of the so-called "Herzeg-Bosna" published a statement not recommending its sportsmen to compete with sportsmen from the Republic of B&H. Therefore, what can anyone possibly say about or predict when the Bosnians and the Croats will return to places and cities they were banished from?

How can anyone possibly place the latest demands for formation of ethnically clean municipalities within the context of the Federation "coming to life"? It is absolutely useless to speak about cooperation in the sphere of creation of a joint military force. The latest Washington agreement which prescribes that this could happen in the next three years does not inspire too much optimism.

With these people, leaders and heads, there can simply be no progress for this country.

What is the alternative, which are the forces which know and offer a way out of the dark Bosnian tunnel, are there any such forces in this country and how strong are they? It is the opposition, of course, to the ruling national oligarchies. It is the parties, programs and people who would offer to the long-suffering, crazed and deceived people a life without a new war and more bloodshed, without divisions into national ghettoes, who would make normal life off one's work possible. At least declaratively, such programs are at the moment offered by the Party for B&H, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Union of B&H Social Democrats (UBSD), among conditionally speaking large parties. The Muslim Bosniac Organization, the Croat Peasants' Alliance of B&H and the Republican Party should in this context be added to them. This would practically end the list of relevant parties which could be the counterpoint to the ruling ones.

However, most of these parties are not only completely disunited, but do not do anything in particular to contribute to creation of a democratic climate in B&H. They often blame IFOR, Karl Bildt, the whole world for the fact that there is no such climate - they just never mention their own role in it. They claim that it will be impossible for the elections scheduled for September to actually take place because democratic conditions will not be created by then, and some of these parties have already announced that they would boycott the polls. It is a fact that the election documents are rigid, that they are full of defficiencies, among which the possibility for the refugees and banished persons to vote wherever they happen to be at the time of the elections is one of the greatest.

It is also a fact that this document is literally the result of the senior one - the one from Dayton, which was supported by these parties too, at least in the beginning. Let us assume that leaders of these parties were caught unprepared by it. But, what are they doing concerning the things they are absolutely free to decide about on their own - organizing of preparations and uniting all civic forces in B&H before the September D-day.

It is not possible that leaders of opposition parties in B&H still do not understand quite clearly that only united in a joint block they have a chance to compete with the parties in power. It is not possible that they are not aware that disunited they will be completely crushed. How should one interpret the fact that most of them behave as if there is still plenty of time, that all they do is convene a meeting here and there or a press conference and inform their sympathizers that they are demanding postponing of the elections and looking for funds for the election campaign. All attempts of unionare received with reservation, caution, careful sizing up of their own emperor. That is how the latest statement of the President of the UBSD Selim Beslagic was received, who said that an agreement has been reached on formation of an opposition block which should win the elections against the SDA. He said that the SDP and maybe even the Party for B&H of former prime minister Haris Silajdzic would join the coalition with the UBSD. He also hinted that the coalition was open to other multi-ethnic democratic forces, not only form the territory of the Federation but that of Republic of Srpska as well.

The edge of this statement was immediately taken off first from the ranks of the main partner - the SDP. They said that there had been negotiations, but that nothing was definite yet. Some are even accusing Beslagic that this statement was an attempt at proclaiming himself a big leader.

Such politicking and such caution, apart from confusing members of the opposition parties and their sympathizers, promises no strategic political change in relations among parties in the forthcoming elections. It is also clearly shown by the still cautious measuring of the intentions of Silajdzic's new party and then possible offer of marriage of convenience. Time is quickly slipping away, summer is almost here and so are the elections. It is already possible to hear an alibi from some of the opposition parties: "Even if they do win now, national parties will certaily lose early elections in two years."

In the meantime, along with the problems mentioned in the beginning of this text, others are arising. Destiny of returnees is quite uncertain, the number of people looking for a job is increasing every day, social discontent has already aroused B&H miners... These and hundreds of other questions are awaiting answers. Without delay. If peace has arrived riding in a NATO tank, only wisdom can maintain it. Our own.

Who can do it in B&H at the moment, is a question still without an answer.

KONSTANTIN JOVANOVIC