MILOSEVIC LEFT WITHOUT SUPPORTERS

The Serbs in Bosnia

In a situation when all the trump cards have already been used, when the world is seeking operatives who would implement in the field whatever the President of Serbia promises, Slobodan Milosevic is pointing at Rajko Kasagic as his man. In doing it, both the President of Serbia and his interlocutors seem to be forgetting that the current Prime Minister of the Republic of Srpska was appointed by Radovan Karadzic, and not Slobodan Milosevic.

AIM Belgrade, April 30, 1996

Not long ago, at the time he was engaged in the matters of peace in the former Yugoslav space, American diplomat Richard Holbrooke, told the following anecdote - in the midst of haggling with the Serb President Slobodan Milosevic in Dobanovci near Belgrade, he asked his host who would guarantee implementation of an agreement they had just come to terms about. Milosevic indolently raised his hand, Holbrooke said, and at this signal a door opened and the leader of Bosnian Serbs Radovan Karadzic and the supreme commander general Ratko Mladic walked in.

According to his own story, Richard Holbrooke immediately grabbed a telephone and started dialing the Hague Tribunal to report that two men for whom warrants of arrest had been issued accused of war crimes were on the territory of FR of Yugoslavia, which could have been additionally punished for the hospitality extended to these two. But, that is besides the point. The important thing is that the scene with the two men appearing through the door at a hardly noticeable Milosevic's gesture had a fascinating effect on both the man who described it and his listeners.

At that (Holbrooke's) time, Milosevic was already shaken so badly that he could not fool anyone any more and create an impression of a gambler who had an ace up his sleeve, or of a hunter with a hawk on his shoulder, but he still made the impression of a man who still had, at least in Bosnia, a pack of his men out of which he could always draw a man he needed for a particular job.

Holbrooke has gone and that is when Milosevic used two of his cards - Karadzic and Mladic who agreed to the ceasefire, but the anecdote and fame about Milosevic and "his" men remained. Journalists who arrive in Belgrade from all over the world are nowadays interested mostly in the personality of Prime Minister of the Republic of Srpska (RS), Rajko Kasagic, M.A. Why is that so? In western diplomatic circles it can be heard that he is a new Milosevic's man.

The fourth war Prime Minister of RS would never say that he was anybody's man. In the end of last year, he was appointed to his latest post definitely as a protege of Radovan Karadzic. This man from Banjaluka was considered to be the cadre devoted to the headquarters in Pale and as such he loudly protested against any stressing of Banjaluka's regional particularities in relation to the rest of the RS. The thesis that Banjaluka was neglected on account of Pale was simply ignored by him. When Karadzic nominated him to take the place of the prime minister instead of Herzegovinian Dusan Kozic, he knew what he was doing: he appointed a man who would be devoted to him and this would neutralize arguments of people from Banjaluka and Bosnian Krajina who grumbled that they had no representatives in high state agencies.

Rajko Kasagic who had been the President of the Executive Board of Banjaluka Municipality before he became Prime Minister, did not have a high reputation in his own environment. He lived in the shadow of the much more popular Mayor Predrag Radic who was more communicative, eloquent, educated and had more style. When the mentioned President of the Executive Board put a signature on an insignificant document on repair of the roof on the building of the Banjaluka Law School, the rumour started that he did it in order to purchase a Ph.D. for himself. He hever did take his doctoral degree, but he did not win any confidence of his fellow-citizens either. The stamp of a "man of Pale" marked him as the one in charge od dishonourable jobs, so that he was also pointed out as the one responsible for ethnic cleansing of Banjaluka.

When he took over the Prime Minister's post, he said: "I cannot accept that the capital of RS should be a village. Pale is the war capital. The real capital must be where majority of the cadres are, and that is Banjaluka." This struck a responsive chord in Banjaluka and the anecdote about the roof was replaced by a new one. Allegedly, people from the state top echelons offered a million dollars to Kasagic to close his eyes and just play an extra in order to enable them to continue to go about their business of amassing money. His fellow-citizens say that Rajko Kasagic refused. This story which originated from among opposition Banjaluka politicians is one of those whose authenticity is difficult to check, but it also shows that Rajko Kasagic, M.A., has become a personality for his fellow-citizens.

As a man who unambiguously said that he was in favour of implmentation of what had been agreed in Dayton, that he was against the exodus of the Serbs from Sarajevo, that he was in favour of cooperation with the Muslims and the Croats... one could think that he was Milosevic's envoy. Declarations such as "it is disgraceful for any nation to hide war criminals" or "the world strives to remove this set of politicians expecting a milder variant which could cooperate with the Muslims" just intensified the impression. And yet, with his latest move, refusal to go to Brussels to the Conference on B&H, Prime Minister of the RS irresistably reminded of his President Radovan Karadzic in his prime.

The truth is probably that Rajko Kasagic is somewhere between these two and that he is sincerely trying to be himself. Contrary to Radovan Karadzic, he is open for cooperation with all representatives of international community stationed in Bosnia. Contrary to Milosevic who accepts the world only when he has to, Kasagic is sincerely open to the world and, one could even say, enthusiastic about it. "We must open the door to the world, because they wish to be our friends", is the sentence he never misses to repeat in all his interviews. At the post of the Prime Minister, Kasagic got rid of his complex which he used to have in the shadow of Banjaluka Mayor Predrag Radic. From that post he managed to learn, although late, things which Radovan Karadzic never could see from even greater height. Among the major things he learnt was that political will of the international community could not be ignored, and the other that Serb national policy was formulated in Belgrade, while that which was pursued by Pale was just following orders.

"It could be said that due to the relations between Yugoslavia and RS, some ministers closed the doors to institutions from Yugoslavia... I start from the wish to establishing new relations", Rajko Kasagic said once and caused suspicion of Pale by his statement. Because, as he himself admitted, at the last session of the Assembly of RS, some deputies asked whose man he was - did he belong to Serbia or the RS - and demanded his resignation. At the same session held on April 1, Radovan Karadzic was not satisfied with his statements and expressed suspicion concerning his negotiating capabilities, but asked the Assembly to withdraw the proposal for Prime Minister's resignation.

Rajko Kasagic remained in office, as those in Banjaluka who belong to the "well informed circles" say, with a little help of Belgrade. However, this is not sufficient to conclude that Rajko Kasagic is definitely a supporter of Milosevic. Because to be "Milosevic's" means to be obedient, devoted to the end. Kasagic is a mediator between shaken inflexibility of Radovan Karadzic and his rigid associates on one, and Milosevic's surrendering to promises he had given to the international community on the other hand. He is a card from the thinning pack of the President of Serbia. From that pack of cards, Radovan Karadzic, Nenad Kecmanovic, Nikola Koljevic, general Ratko Mladic, Banjaluka Mayor Predrag Radic had already been on the table...

In a situarion when all jokers have been used, when the world, just like Richard Holbrooke did in Dobanovci, seeks operative men to implement in the field what the President of Serbia had promised, Slobodan Milosevic points out to Rajko Kasagic as his man. But, in doing it, both the President of Serbia and his suporters seem to be forgetting that the current Prime Minister of the RS was appointed by Radovan Karadzic and not Slobodan Milosevic.

Therefore, instead of guessing whether somebody is or is not Milosevic's man, it would be more justified to wonder whether the Serb President has a man of his own in the RS.

Slobodan Milosevic installed the Socialist Party of RS (SPRS) in Banjaluka, which is a blood-sister of his Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), but a figure which could at the same time be a new leader of the Serbs in Bosnia and be controlled by the Serb regime has not appeared in it yet. The Mayor of Banjaluka, Predrag Radic was in the game for quite some time, as a man of consensus of all significant opposition parties, but he hesistated to give his consent too long, and missed his opportunity, they say in Banjaluka.

The dilligent President of the SPRS, Drago Ilic, lacks charisma, so many prefer to bet on the second man in the party, former mayor of Banjaluka, Zivko Radisic.

Indeed, the main barrier to Milosevic's intention to have his man at the helm of the RS is the fact that charisma of the President of Serbia himself is fading every day among the Serbs in Bosnia. The authorities, but even both the impassioned and the apathetic "ordinary" citizens persecute Socialists who are close to him on the whole territory of the RS. In Teslic, Samac, Ugljevik, Bileca, Visegrad, Sokolac... members of the SPRS, according to the memorandum that they themselves have publicized, are being discharged from work. Their gatherings are dispersed with tear-gas, sticks, rifles, and as an opposition politician from the RS said, people do not respect those who are beaten up.

Apart from everything else, Milosevic's portrait was shot at in Teslic, and a shop which was decorated with a poster with his picture was destroyed by explosives.

It is not attractive any more to be Milosevic's man in the RS. Just five or six years ago, anyone who even tried to take his picture off a wall would have bene beaten up. Five or six years ago, majority of the Serbs in Bosnia were Milosevic's trump cards (just as he was theirs). And nowadays, his pack of cards has become very thin, and he would still like to play.

(AIM) Perica Vucinic