TIME OF UNITY

AIM Zagreb, April 21, 1996

The Chamber of Districts of the Croat Assembly, which pursuant to the Constitution has a never quite clarified consultative role, is considered to be much "tamer" than the main - Chamber of Representatives. Although the ruling Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) has a predominant majority even in this, "second-rate" Chamber, just a few deputies, such as Tomislav Mercep or Dr. Hrvoje Sosic, distinguish themselves for their unconcealed radicalism. That is why the decision of the group of HDZ deputies to refuse to vote in favour of "the Hague Law" was received with considerable surprise, although foreign minister Dr Mate Granic tried to persuade them by saying that this was the major condition for reception of Croatia into the Council of Europe. It was quite grotesque to watch deputies of other parties trying to persuade members of the HDZ to vote in favour of the proposal of their own Government. There was no use, so after three hours of persuasion, Chairman of the Chamber, Dr Katica Ivanisevic could do nothing but declare that the Presidency of the Assembly concluded that decision about this law would be reached by the Chamber of Representatives alone, with two-thirds majority. That is how it came about that after a long time HDZ majority refused to obey its Party President, Dr Franjo Tudjman, and Tomislav Mercep, who is claimed to be one of the possible accused, commented: "These faggots will deliver us to the Tribunal on a silver platter".

All this was just an overture for final decision-making and immediately calculations and questions appeared: what will happen in the Chamber of Representatives, which still has to discuss and vote about this law? However, it was obvious that it was impermissible for Tudjman to lose once again in his own party. Signals from the Chamber of Districts, but also public disapproval of some of the prominent deputies of the Chamber of Representatives dictated that urgent action of "friendly persuasion"had to be taken. First, the Presidency of the HDZ met and ordered that the Law had to be adopted. Then, units for "working on" deputies set out, and heavy artillery was sent to the Assembly, personified by foreign minister Dr Mate Granic, minister of defence Gojko Susak, minister of justice Miroslav Separovic, and from among the deputies, explanations that "the Hague Law" would not do any harm to Croatia were prepared by Vladimir Seks, Ivic Pasalic and general Janko Bobetko. And finally, it turned out that the Croat Assembly had once again showed that it was united concerning vital interests of the country. Namely, 98 deputies raised their hands in favour of the Law, five of them were against it (four from the Croat Party of Right and Veselin Pejnovic of the Serb National Party), and two abstained.

It is true, the Chamber of Representatives somewhat took off the edges of the Law by a series of amendments, but anyone who was present only during voting, would rightfully wonder: why panic? Because, even people like Vice Vukojevic, Milivoj Kujundzic or Bosiljka Misetic who are known to be sharply opposed to everything this Law stands for voted in favour of it. But, there certainly was plenty of reason for panic, because even after voting in unison of members of the HDZ, it is clear that sharp divisions occurred within the ruling party, one could even say - a mutiny.

Tudjman has again managed to keep passions of its strengthening Right under control, but it is by no means an exaggeration to compare the situation in the Assembly with that which occurred in 1991 when a part of HDZ aggressive extremists tried to stage a coup which made Tudjman respond with creation of a government on national unity, or with that in spring 1994 when the party was abndoned by Stipe Mesic and Josip Manolic, which caused a long crisis in the Assembly.

And that such an opinion is well-founded was corroborated by stories about a possible new coalition government, and by information that Stipe Mesic was returning to the HDZ together with his Independent Democrats. It all began when Franjo Tudjman invited "his favourite HDZ member" Stipe Mesic to the Presidential Palace and talked to him for almost two hours. Interest for Stipe Mesic and his story about the talks was enormous especially after Josip Boljkovac, who is also a dissident of the ruling HDZ, to a journalist's question if he was returning to the HDZ, answered: have you just begun to see that?

In his first statements, Stipe Mesic said that it was a pleasant conversation mostly about a non-aggression pact. He spoke favourably about Franjo Tudjman, but declared that he would not return to the HDZ until dishonourable men such as Vladimir Seks, Branimir Glavas, Vice Vukojevic were in it, and if the HDZ did not change some of its stances and policy. But, as time passed, Mesic could not restrain his temper and failed to stick to the alleged gentleman's agreement and continued "striking" severe blows against the HDZ, and Tudjman himself.

Many linked Mesic's visit to the Presidential Palace with the "Zagreb crisis", and even speculations appeared that Tudjman would be ready to confirm his election for mayor. But, although Stipe Mesic skilfully used this sudden invitation in an attempt to popularize his party and attract attention, Tudjman's decision to talk with the President of the Croat Peasants' Party (HSS), Zlatko Tomcic, raised even more speculations, especailly when he decided to invite the famous peasants' tribune Josip Pankretic.

This was a good enough reason for some journalists to begin wondering whether a coalition government is in sight. They calculated that some ministries, such as agriculture, for instance, would be given to the HSS, and in return "peasants and independent democrats would agree to form a coalition with the HDZ in Zagreb, which would, with support of HSP, nullify domination of the Alliance of Seven Parties. An interview of Zlatko Tomcic showed that that was exactly what Franjo Tudjman wanted, but did not wish to talk with HSLS or SDP, but only with the HSS and some minor parties, because allegedly the HSS and HDZ have a lot in common. But, if Tomcic can be believed, such offers were rejected, because the HSS is not for sale, and it is in no way true that it has a lot in common with the HDZ, but on the contrary, concerning some key issues they have extremely different stances. The only thing agreed is that these two parties will jointly organize a celebration of the 125th anniversary of the birth of Stjepan Radic.

Therefore, at first sight it all appears as a storm in a teacup, because neither an agreement was reached concerning Zagreb, nor has there been any intentions so far to form a coalition government. Why at first sight? Because, it is no pure chance that the negotiations took place at the very time when President Tudjman met with disobedience in his own party, so it was simultaneously a threat, but also a very good investigation of the public opinion. Conditionally speaking, Tudjman in this way sent word to his party members that he could seek a new basis, and that he was not condemned to be once and for all a captive of his own right faction, because he might just as well reach an agreement with Mesic, but even with Tomcic too. On the other hand, knowing that there is quite a few of those who would be only too glad to try how delicious it is to have power, this skilful manoeuvre was intended to somewhat shake up unity of opposition ranks. In any case, he is the greatest winner of this "manifestation of good will".

But, regardless of all, Franjo Tudjman still failed to remove conflicts in his party and he is increasingly threatened by a disproportion in the relation of power which was disturbed after the left faction had left the party. Voting on "the Hague law", regardless of the formal unity, showed that an open conflict was just postponed, because the HDZ is a party which is rightfully compared with the former Socialist Alliance by Stipe Mesic. Within the HDZ there is almost just as many factions as there are in the Alliance of Seven Parties, and now when more or less everything possible is robbed and divided, and when there is no external danger and war cannot be a homogenization factor any more which would keep together persons like Dr Franjo Greguric, Tomislav Mercep, Nikica Valentic, Vladimir Seks, Elia Martincic, Ivica Vrkic, Branimir Glavas...

Many will long for the good old HDZ, but there will no more be the HDZ - this is what is happening to the HDZ movement which has completed its historical role, but some people are persistently refusing to accept this. They do not realize that a gap is increasing not only between themselves and the opposition, but also between the leadership and the people.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC