AMBASSADORS COMING, AVRAMOVIC LEAVING

Return of Yugoslavia to International Community

AIM Belgrade, April 16, 1996

Even at the time of severest sanctions, official Belgrade did its best to create an impression that isolation in which it had found itself in was actually an illusion. Diligent international mediators helped it to achieve it. Every now and then they turned up in Belgrade, to pay a visit to Milosevic. The ambassadors and charges d'affaires of big countries who had remained in Belgrade were also of some help. Not counting Russian ambassador Shikin, a champion of cordiality, because the Russians had never really strained their relations with Belgrade, let us have a look at the "rigid" countries.

Names such as a certain lawyer Schrembgens and Frenchman Keller are remembered by the public for their untiring communication with the "isolated country", and an undoubtedly malicious little joke circled about Englishman Roberts which said that he was a candidate for a member of the Socialist Party of Serbia. He was that close with the regime under sanctions. In this competition introduced by themselves, the mentioned personalities perhaps did not reach the status Peter Galbraith has at "court" in Zagreb, but they certainly were effective. For supporters of Belgrade regime, and not just for them, this was quite sufficient to make them believe that they were not in a "black hole", but indeed at the very centre of the world.

It is, therefore, not hard to imagine what it is like nowadays in official Belgrade, when real ambassadors who had left are arriving from different parts of the world, and when others have announced their arrival. It is little to say that Belgrade is having the time of its life, to be more precise, it is triumphant.

The climax was reached with Macedonia. Process of normalization with Croatia had started before, France appointed its new ambassador, but neither of the two undoubtedly important developments were accompanied with such enthusiasm. Why? Among the assumptions which could be the foundation for an answer to this question is certainly the fact that immediately after the agreement with Skopje had been signed, favourable hints arrived from the European Union, especially from Germany through a prompt statement of its foreign Minister Kinkel, and the fact that Great Britain decided to individually ask for an agrement for its ambassador. The second reason could be in the fact that Yugoslavia and Macedonia, apart from having agreed to exchange ambassadors, agreed on mutual recognition as well.

State media in Belgrade did not normally publish the news about reestablishment of relations, that is, as news on establishing relations, but as news that Macedonia has recognized statehood and legal continuity of Yugoslavia. That is how it went, professionally wrong and somewhat insulting for the other party, starting from television to regime journals. It is obvious that recognition in the agreed form was the most important thing for Belgrade. For the objectives the ruling party had set for itself, it is without any doubt of an enormous significance, because this broke the block of former Yugoslav republics which so far all, in unison, shared the stance that Yugoslavia should not be given the status of a legal successor of the former joint state - SFRY.

Return of old ambassadors and arrival of new ones is a sign that the period of international isolation of Yugoslavia has ended. "The first lock has been unlocked", Ilija Djukic, head of diplomacy in Milan Panic's government, clarifies it. It is not hard to agree with the caution expressed in this statement, because many things have not been resolved yet. It is evident that the central factor is reserved - the United States of America. The analysts do not expect the arrival of a US ambassador in Belgrade, nor that of Yugoslav in Washington, before presidential elections over there in autumn. The assessments are that such a course of events could be changed only by a big decision of Slobodan Milosevic /to extradite Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic to the Hague, for instance/.

Normalization of relations with Croatia is progressing with a lot of efforts and difficulties, and key obstacles are still waiting to be removed. Government of Milan Panic recognized Slovenia, but it is just quite formal, because there is still no mutual interest to promote relations. Belgrade is, in fact, ignoring Ljubljana. Bosnia is also an open issue.

Although, just "the first lock has been unlocked", although a number of complex issues still need to be solved, it is hard to believe that things could turn backwards. It would be insensible to disregard certain shifts in Yugoslav policy in the direction towards certain cooperation with the world, which were best manifested in adoption of the peace option in resolving the Yugoslav war crisis. Something is happening, even if just a minimum. It is interesting, however, that apart from general indications, that which is usually called foreign policy of a country has never been formulated concerning this issue.

The Federal Government which is competent for it pursuant to the Constitution, is not actually engaged in it, and its minister of foreign affairs is a commissary of the man who is the president of only one unit in the federal state - Slobodan Milosevic. It is all just an improvisation of his, and a matter of his decision alone. Although noone expects that things will turn backwards, among competent observers there is not conviction that they could move further from the achieved minimum.

Respectable Professor of Belgrade Law School, Dr Vojin Dimitrijevic, assesses for AIM that the present regime has not the necessary capacity to join Europe. "We know what values are appreciated over there", says Dr Dimitrijevic, "democracy, human rights and the market. And this system does not sincerely and fully accept these values. A single way of thinking still prevails here, the one which I call military, that of 'JNA'. And it implies aversion to the western world, lingering with getting closer to it. That is why we are turning towards China and Korea, waiting to see whether Zyuganov will manage to do something in Russia".

In this sense, Dr Vojin Dimitrijevic tends to point out to certain, even if they may be minimum, differences between Serbia and Montenegro, which has certain advantages. "But, it will not be the one to decide", he says. "The best proof that there is no great wish for true and essential integration in the world", is according to AIM's interlocutor, the "case of Asvramovic". What is it all about?

It is a very severe, pending controversy between the Federal Government and Governor of the National Bank of Yugoslavia, Dragoslav Avramovic. The immediate cause are negotiations with the International Monetary Fund about return of Yugoslavia to economy and finances of the world.

"Two approaches are evident", Prof. Dr Jurij Bajec who is a consultant in the Serb Government, says for AIM. "One is that of the Federal Government, and not only that, and it refers to continuity of Yugoslavia in this and other international economic institutions, and the other is the approach of Governor Avramovic who stresses, primarily, the financial aspect of the matter. Legally, we do not stand too bad, even foreign observers say so, but politically, our position is much worse", says Dr Bajec.

The "case of the Governor" is acquiring dangerous proportions, so huge that the Governor has opened a front with the Prime Minister of the Serb Government, publishing even relevant documents from the National Bank as he went long. The Governor who used to enjoy undivided support of Slobodan Milosevic, is now in conflict with his strongest supporters. It is not difficult to forecast the outcome. It is the end of the Governor, for certain. But, the story about this conflict has a special relevance for the story on reintegration of Yugoslavia into the economy of the world. Avramovic's fall would mean that intergration into international economic flows would be interrupted for a long period to come.

Dragoslav Avramovic enjoys almost undivided support of Serb opposition. This, of course, has no significance except moral. The Civic Alliance, for instance, formed an indeed representative Foreign Policy Forum in which the leading members are experienced former diplomats (the Forum has recently begun operating as part of the European Movement for Serbia). It is believed that the Forum with its members is incomparably stronger than active Yugoslav diplomacy. Nevertheless, not a single opinion of this Forum has ever been taken into consideration.

Some other foreign political options of the opposition are also with no relevance. The opposition underlined struggle for "European Serbia" as its current slogan. It opposes this struggle to orientation towards China which is insisted on by circles around Milosevic's wife, Mira Markovic. The ruling Socialists, both Serb and Montenegrin, however, disregard not only opposition platforms, but even initiatives of their parliamentary allies. New Democracy, coalition partner of Milosevic's Socialists, initiated a procedure for Yugoslavia joining NATO's program "Partnership for Peace".Nothing happened. The proposal was simply and utterly ignored.

Noone wishes to share the euphoria which is being produced in the past few days because of "diplomatic achievements" and effects which it has at home. Salvoes for the ambassadors, glory to the host. Noone dares mention responsibility anyway.

Radivoj Cveticanin / AIM /