RUSSIANS INSTEAD OF THE NATO IN THE PORT OF BAR
Will Russians Export a Large Shipment of Arms to Serbia
AIM Podgorica, April 13, 1996
After Russian defence Minister had signed a protocol on military cooperation in Belgrade not long ago, many reached a conclusion that this was an episode in a series of attempts of the Russian Federation to restore the Warsaw treaty. It is believed that it was pursuant Russian recommendations that Ministry of defence of the FRY signed supplementary agreements on military cooperation with Romania and Bulgaria, as well as with Ukraine and Belorussia. When in Moscow, opposition to intentions of the NATO to establish a system of European security in the east of the continent had intensified by personnel changes in diplomacy, "confusion" in Belgrade concerning the dilemma whether Serbia should get involved in the program "Partnership for Peace" was also increased.
This "confusion" in Belgrade, however, is already interpreted as a result of a specific policy. Along the lines of the belief that Serbia wishes to reinforce its diplomatic positions in the post-Dayton period by stressing Russian presence in the region, lies the never publicly denied plan that Montenegrin coast (the Boka Kotorska Bay) in a certain form should become a base of the Russian navy. For the time being, the fact that a convoy of Russian ships, including aircraft carrier "Kuznetsov", has not sailed into the Adriatic Sea is explained only by financial reasons, although it should have according to plans of support to the peace process, that is, in support of the Russian air-force landing brigade stationed in IFOR Sector A in north-eastern Bosnia.
According to that concept, "Kuznetsov" was supposed to complete the image of coalition appearance of Russia and the NATO in reestablishment of confidence, after adoption of the peace accords. This modern ship (67,000 ton with 24 Suhoy-28B2/25 aeroplanes, 12 Mig-29 fighters, and 15 K-27 Helix helicopters) was planned to be deployed in southern Adriatic with a logistic base in Boka Kotorska Bay. Answers to the question why this had not occurred from the aspect of finances sound quite convincing: moving of the aircraft carrier with accompanying ships from the Black Sea on this long journey is an exceptionally expensive operation. Rocket cruiser "Kirov" alone, which is among the ships which escort the aircraft carrier, when in full operation, consumes power sufficient for illuminating a city of 500 thousand inhabitants!
Plans of the Russian Federation aimed at reestablishing its influence on this side of the Carpathian Mountains do not seem to be discouraged, though. Moreover, it sees Serbia as a regional centre from which western objectives symbolized by "Partnership for Peace"could be frustrated. Russian-Serb military relations are believed to be "organic" due to technical and technological dependence of the Yugoslav Army on Russian military industries, but also due to almost identical views of the process of establishing new relation of powers in Europe, as well as chronic nostalgy for the post-cold war era. Therefore, unofficial announcements that serbia could soon get a certain amount of Russian armament should be interpreted in this context.
It, therefore, seems that the greatest import deal of Russian arms since 1988 is in sight, when the then Commander of Yugoslav air force, general Anton Tus, signed a deal to purchase a squadron of Mig-29 planes, that is, since the time of the never publicly admitted transactions of the former defence minister, general Veljko Kadijevic with the Russian conspiratory group of general Dmitri Yazov, which involved Russian military aid (mysterious military loads which used to arrive in the Port of Bar, and similar). By a protocol signed in Belgrade, armed forces of the Russian Federation took upon themselves - in exchange for the Serb wheat - to deliver a squadron of Mig-29 aeroplanes and an unknown number of ballistic war missiles. Had it involved only import of war aircrafts, it might have not aroused major interest; but, when dealing with ballistic missiles, the issue provokes thoughts about new encouragement of dangerous ambitions of Belgrade.
Ballistic missiles, according to American military terminology, are intended for operational and tactical tasks. In case of Russian armament export to Serbia, it most certainly involves missiles C-300 (a variant of American "patriots"), but also realization of a long-lasting wish of Belgrade military leadership to import ballistic missiles, whose range can, with appropriate modifications, be increased up to a hundred kilometres. Apart from casette explosives, their war-heads can also be filled with war gas.
Serbia has technological facilities which can improve basic Russian models of missiles (primarily "Krusik", a factory from Valjevo), and it is believed that work on this projects would be reinforced by Russian military experts who would be brought to join the existing teams of Military Technical Institute in Zarkovo near Belgrade. The only remaining problem is transportation of the Russian military shipment to Serbia, but it seems that that too was resolved last week. At least a part of the shipment will travel via the port of Bar: signatory of the agreement along with general Grachov was minister of defence of FRY, Montenegrin Pavle Bulatovic. The agreement prescribes that a part of the port of Bar "shall temporarily be used by the Yugoslav Navy". Disembarkment of a similar load was already seen in Bar in 1991, when ships with a Russian military load, under the veil of artificial fog, sailed into the port of Bar and then was taken by train to Serbia, where it was assembled and "put into operation".
Vladimir Jovanovic (AIM Podgorica)