KARADZIC VS. KASAGIC

Stir among the Bosnian Serbs

Leader of Bosnian Serbs Fears Growing Influence of Prime Minister Rajko Kasagic and Wishes to Limit His Power

AIM Belgrade, April 7, 1996

At the Parliament session held in the night between April 2 and 3 in Pale, the leader of Bosnian Serbs, Radovan Karadzic took new measures in order to keep main reins of power and influence which seem to be slipping out of his hands. Namely, Karadzic managed to extort authorization from the Parliament to be the only one entitled to appoint representatives who will negotiate with the international community. The Parliament also established a special State Committee for cooperation with the international community which, according to the official interpretation, should ensure "independence and sovereignty of the Republic of Srpska (RS) established by Dayton Agreement".

Both measures are aimed at limiting the number of people who will have the right to contact with the representatives of the international community, but also with the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina, and Belgrade, for that matter. By establishing the State Committee, Radovan Karadzic tried to create a separate political body which would prevent excessive "assimilation" of the Serb entity into integral Bosnia & Herzegovina.

In the background of these decisions of the Parliament of Bosnian Serbs is the conflict of Radovan Karadzic and the political leadership of the RS with Prime Minister Rajko Kasagic. At the Parliament session Radovan Karadzic openly criticised the Government, reproaching it for readily adopting measures which lead to weakening power of the Serb entity for the sake of central Bosnian authorities. After the session, he said that "negotiators sometimes... raise hopes of the opponents that Bosnia could be integrated". The opponents in this case are the authorities of the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina and the international community.

Foreign minister in his Government, Aleksa Buha, also sharply criticized Rajko Kasagic. The reason for that is probably hidden in Karadzic's statement (also given after the session of the Parliament) that all jobs connected with implementation of Agreement signed in Dayton would be centralized in the State Committee and that, apart from himself, Minister Buha would represent the Serb entity, "in the line of duty".

Connoisseurs of political circumstances among the Bosnian Serbs claim that Radovan Karadzic and his associates had prepared a frontal attack against Rajko Kasagic which even included the demand of vote of no confidence. However, they abandoned the intention, since it turned out that Kasagic enjoyed strong support of Belgrade, to be precise of President of Serbia Slobodan Milosevic, and that the region of Banjaluka supported him almost without any reservations.

Two main reasons lie at the foundation of the conflict between the current Prime Minister of Bosnian Serbs and the political leadership - certain differences in views of implementation of the Dayton Agreement and, of course, struggle for power, or rather fear of political leaders that the growing influence of Rajko Kasagic could seriously threaten them.

Rajko Kasagic is a pragmatist who advocates a broad economic cooperation with the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina, but with all other former Yugoslav republics as well. He does not hesitate to talk about establishing joint payment operations in whole of Bosnia & Herzegovina, and other joint functions prescribed by the agreement from Dayton. Radovan Karadzic and his associates wish to implement only the part of the agreement which refers to the statehood of the Serb entity, and experience Kasagic's pragmatic attempts as a threat for the state they had created during the war years which they wish to preserve as sovereign.

The Prime Minister's wish to comply with everything stated in the Agreement signed in Dayton met with approval in Belgrade, and President of Serbia Slobodan Milosevic, as well-informed Serb sources claim, praised his work on several occasions. Less than a week before the Parliament session, Rajko Kasagic, according to the same sources, addressed Slobodan Milosevic complaining about pressures exerted on him by Radovan Karadzic and his supporters.

There are, however, no signs that Rajko Kasagic would actually be ready to accept any closer political connections with the "other entity" in Bosnia & Herzegovina. He remains on the level of advocating economic cooperation, and the people from his surroundings claim that he believes that in future Bosnia, different entities should maintain basic instruments of power and preserve attributes of statehood.

For a fortnight now, Banjaluka has been buzzing about the intention of Pale to reduce the influence of the "troublesome" Prime Minister. Medium-sized and large private entrepreneurs and owners of medium and small enterprises were quite disturbed beacuse of the hints that Rajko Kasagic would be seriously attacked and they started preparing some kind of an unofficial lobby. That is how it came about that even deputies who belong to the ruling Serb Democratic Party (SDS) from the region of Banjaluka spoke in favour of the Prime Minister at the session of the Parliament.

Banjaluka is economically the best developed part of the Serb entity and a large number of small and medium privately-owned enterprises are located in this region. Owners of these enterprises now wish to trade and open new business ventures, so it is quite natural that along with a big portion of the population, they are turning towards the pragmatic Rajko Kasagic who avoids "big" words and hot slogans and who is in favour of negotiations.

Mr Rajko Kasagic is the first high official of the Bosnian Serbs who opposed Radovan Karadzic, demanded help from Belgrade and - remained on his feet, that is, stayed in office and maintained influence. Political observers believe that this is because he has a strong internal stronghold, a "base" in the region of Banjaluka and a powerful suport in Belgrade. Representatives of the international community are also inclined toards him, and so are peace mediators, while journalists observed that even with his refined appearance he stands out from the environment in which he acts.

Political observers in Belgrade agree in the assessment that gaining in power of pragmatic Kasagic is so far the greatest threat to the influence of Radovan Karadzic and central authorities of the Bosnian Serbs. They believe that Serb President Slobodan Milosevic deserves the merit for this, who has a good mind to if not altogether replace the political leadership in Pale, than at least to ensure that it is minimized. It is especially stressed that the Prime Minister, contrary to his predecessor among Milosevic's favourites, Vice-President Nikola Koljevic, is an influential man internally and has certain political power of his own.

Decisions of the Parliament of Bosnian Serbs which were "timed" so as to prevent possible intentions of the Prime Minister to negotiate with Sarajevo, Belgrade and the world in the name of the Serb entity, may somwhat aggravate joint efforts of Slobodan Milosevic and Rajko Kasagic, but not prevent them altogether. Serb ledaership from Pale could hardly endure competition with Belgrade and the world even if it were completely united and had full support of the population. It cannot do it, especially not now when regional divisions increased, and when people are openly criticizing Radovan Karadzic for filure, loss of a large number of lives and significant territories.

It is expected that the Prime Minister will nevertheless "return the blow" although it might not happen immediately. It is logical to expect that Belgrade will try to gain direct patronage over him and use him more powerfully in settling accounts with Radovan Karadzic. Connoisseurs of RS believe that Slobodan Milosevic has ensured a decisive influence in political, economic and military affairs in the region of Banjaluka and in the cities in the north, and partly in eastern Bosnia. If he wisheds to maintain this influence, he must use the opportunity which has cropped up with the Prime Minister's gaining power in order to strike a decisive blow against Radovan Karadzic.

(AIM) Dragan Janjic