ANNOUNCEMENT OF A NEW WAR IN THE MEDIA?

AIM Zagreb, April 2, 1996

Two years after the Washington Agreement which turned the war between the Croats and the Bosniacs into the Federation, a new agreement was reached - who knows which in a row - to move that federal formation from the standstill. Tasks, time limits and sanctions for those who fail to do their duty have been set. However, fear that the Federation will nevertheless be aborted is increasing. Relations between the federal partners greatly remind of the time of a once cruel war in the media which preceded the Croat-Bosniac war. Anti-Muslim campaign in Croat media has reached such a level that one can openly formulate the following question: is the Croat leadership preparing, by means of its media, a new armed conflict with the Muslims?

State television is taking the initiative as usual, with its commentaries in which the style of Presidential headquarters is easily recognized, but the other media do not lag far behind. Interviews with leaders of the formally abolished but very tough Herzeg-Bosnia follow one another, and in them, without any reservation, they spout enormous amounts of hatred for the Muslims and reject any possibility of coexistence. One of them even compared these days, when the Bosniacs are visiting cemeteries in Herzegovina, with rallies which brought Slobodan Milosevic to power. The others speak of a Muslim danger and the attempts of establishing a green transversal. There are articles about fundamentalist expansion, alleged secret plans for a war against the Croats and their extermination are published. Nobody mentions extremist Bosniac groups anymore, instead there are allegations that the entire Bosnian leadership headed by Alija Izetbegovic is extremist. Even those who were moderate so far have started to jump at the Muslims' throats. Many of the texts are written in the tone which sounds as a declaration of war on Sarajevo.

When one knows how close majority of the media in Croatia are with the state top echelons - it becomes clear that such an overflow of obscure anti-Muslim texts is by no means accidental. What could be achieved with them? Is it really a prelude of a war? Creation of an atmosphere in which armed conflicts should not be ruled out?

The possibility of renewal of the war is openly stressed. Minister of defence, Gojko Susak, announced engagement of the Croat Army in defence of Croat interests, that is, that which Zagreb calls Croat interests in Bosnia & Herzegovina. Some other warmongers are publicly speculating about a much more favourable situation for the Croat party in case of a new Bosniac-Croat conflict, because nowadays when they control the part of Western Herzegovina which used to belong to the Serbs - Glamoc, Grahovo, Drvar - the Croats have ensured a much better position for themselves. They fail to say, however, that that which is called the Bosniac corps is still split between the Central Bosnian and the Bihac region.

At the moment it is hard to believe that a new war could actually begin. International forces would not allow it. Zagreb is certainly aware of it. Zagreb is also aware that these forces will not leave at the end of the year. But it does know that they will leave some day. And - it intends to be ready when that day comes. Until it does, Tudjman does not wish to lose what he has achieved in the war. In a recent report of the military intelligence service of the USA, it is stated that the previous warring parties have not changed their strategic objectives and that the process of spliting Bosnia into three parts has accelerated since Dayton. American intelligence officers state that "the Bosnian Serbs are working on consolidation of the territory which became theirs", and on further increase of their autonomy in relation to Sarajevo, as well as formal on rapprochement with Belgrade, while "the Bosnian Croats will continue to work on de facto union with Zagreb", it should also be expected that "tensions between the Croats and the Muslims will grow, threatening the Federation".

But the war in the media which is nowadays at such a level that it appears as if arms could be activated any minute, has another function as well. It seems that the possibility of a war breaking out is stressed on purpose. Perhaps to make an impression on the international community that the Croats and the Bosniacs better be held as far apart from each other as possible, that they should better be separated than fighting each other. Perhaps to show that their coexistence is impossible, that tensions between them are such that they can easily turn into a conflict and that it would be better to arrange their separation. In a way that is what the leaders of Herzeg-Bosnia are also advocating. They claim that forcing them to coexistence is a constant threat to peace. According to them, the condition for peace is - everyone on one's own land.

However, what does this "everyone on one's own land" in Bosnia mean nowadays? For the leaders of Herzegovina, for instance, the formula "everyone on one's own land" does not refer to the Croats from Banjaluka and the Sava river valley. They have become ethnically suitable material for filling in the deserted space in western Herzegovina and Krajina abandoned by the Serbs. Or what does "everyone on one's own land" mean where Herzegovinian Croats are controlling former Serb lands which have never been theirs before?

However, for the first time it seems that this plan on ethnic separation, or federalization of the Federation, or division of Bosnia into three ethnic entities has not met with complete indifference of the Bosniac party. Sarajevo which has always been quite lenient even about non-principled Croat demands, has started with completely unnecessary and unjust straining of relations. It seems that they are taking vengeance for their frustrations which the Croats from Herzegovina deserve the merit for, on Croats from Sarajevo and generally other parts of Bosnia who are now - quite innocent, devastated by the war like everyone else who survived it in Sarajevo - experiencing increased segregation.

This brings us to the third possible objective of the current war in the media. It seems that it was planned to keep up the existing amount of hatred and prevent any possibility of Croat-Bosniac rapprochement. Indeed, it is possible that this is its main aim. Therefore, not production of war, but rather production and cementing of separation, impossibility of coexistence. Creation of tensions will contribute to ethnic separation, in fact to final achievement of war objectives, their completion. Ethnic homogenization is best preserved by creation of an atmosphere of being threatened. Refugees will hesitate to return to regions controlled by the authorities of the other ethnic group. Sowing of hatred by the media especially is aimed at regions where the Croats and the Bosniacs are still mixed - scared, everyone will turn to one's own flock.

Zagreb would be overjoyed, and Sarajevo, it seems, would not find it too abominable if the remaining Croats continued to leak out of Bosnia, that is, out of its parts where they used to live and still do together with the Bosniacs. Should their banishment be provoked - it would be worse for the Bosniacs. Fathers of the war in the media have probably counted on that possibility too.

JELENA LOVRIC