FALSE PROMISES

AIM Zagreb, March 31, 1996

In the past few days, numerous delegations of the ruling Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) dispersed around Krajina convincing the Croats that Tudjman was - lying. This is how some independent journalists in Croatia describe the confusing situation which was created after Franjo Tudjman recently signed 21 conditions his country must meet in order to join the Council of Europe. Among the conditions is the obligation to enable the Serbs who fled after the fall of Krajina to return home, to abolish sequestration and to pay indemnities for their property.

This is not the first time that Zagreb assumes international obligations which aggravate and frustrate it, moreover, the end-game of the peace process mostly consists of them, but such obligations have never before arrived in such a comprehensive and systematized package and with such a short time limit. In less than a month, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe will reach a decision whether Croatia, after more than three and a half years of waiting, will be accepted by the oldest European institution, important not only because of its political power or money - there is neither one nor the other in it - but because it acts as the "entrance court" to other influential and prestigious associations (European Union, NAO...). In this short time, therefore, Croatia should adjust its make-up to look its best, and see that it covers up everything that might upset the parliamentarians in Strasbourg and motivate them to turn their thumb down once again.

The task does not seem to be too complicated or unattainable, since, having accepted Russia, the Council of Europe has so obviously lowered its criteria that even acceptance of the few countries which are still left outside (Croatia, B&H, Belorussia, Yugoslavia) cannot be seriously questioned much longer. Besides, Croatia has already acquired a recommendation to be accepted from the Political Committee of the Council whose opinion is considered to be decisive, so that prospects that Croatia will be accepted as a full-fledged member by this summer are quite realistic. On the other hand, the Croat state leadership is certainly not very happy that telescopes from Strasbourg are turned towards Zagreb now, when all international initiatives in this space are in the decisive phase and when it would be much easier to have a free hand in order to assume a more favourable negotiating position. After his recent talks with the American Minister William Perry in Zagreb, Franjo Tudjman emphasized again readiness of Zagreb to cooperate with the Hague tribunal and to have Blaskic soon appear in it. But he added that this readiness would be dosed depending on the readiness of the Serb and the Boshniak party to act accordingly.

As cooperation with the Hague tribunal is one of the 21 items which should be met in order to join the Council of Europe, it is evident that there is fear among the Croat leaders that the lofty political principles might ruin some of their daily political plans. This, of course, cannot be admitted aloud, at least not by representatives of the authorities whose signature certifying agreement to 21 items has already reached the address of the Council of Europe in Strasbourg. But, the HSP which is close to the HDZ and which is not tied by such deference, has already publicly condemned the package of obligations imposed on Croatia. Sapic's party, the only one in the Croat parliament which is openly and without reservations opposing return of the Serbs to Krajina, claims that Croatia is being offered to join Europe under "humiliating conditions", and that if it agrees, it will be drawn into a typical "neocolonial relationship". As the HSP, since Dobroslav Paraga has been removed from its head, operates as a radical rightist branch of the HDZ, often used to present actual stances of the ruling party it advocated itself when the time came, it is only natural that one cannot but wonder whether this has happened again.

Tudjman appeared on the political scene as a great advocate of Europe and the European way, but such rhetorics of his has in the meantime diminished and almost completely disappeared, that is, has been reduced to the declaration that Croatia belongs to the Central European group of countries. The reasons for this are, with no doubt, high criteria which accompany belonging to the European associations, but these are experienced in Croatia as sacrificing not just any, but a very vital part of national sovereignty. In a condensed form, this showed again when Tudjman and Chairman of the Assembly Vlatko Pavletic signed the list of 21 conditions as an urgent matter, but for grasping the real attitude towards these conditions and Europe itself, this is of little importance. It became obvious during the incident mentioned in the beginning of this text, when prominent members of the HDZ hurried to Krajina to convince the Croats over there, returnees and colonists from Bosnia, Vojvodina, Kosovo etc., that there would be no mass return of the Serbs, or more precisely, that this would not be approved of.

However, resistance to return of the Serbs is just one of temptations on the road between Zagreb and Strasbourg, and all things considered, not the greatest one. Probably counting on it that there would be no mass return of the Serb population, not even if approvd by the Croat authorities, Tudjman sent an affirmative answer to Strasbourg, although with special complaints due to which return of the Serbs was qualified as "partly acceptable". Much more resolutely, Croatia reacted to the demand that Tudjman had to stop vetoing the election of the opposition mayor in Zagreb, which as clearly as possible shows that maintenance in power is considered to be of top priority by the HDZ, therefore, something that is in no direct connection with national interests. That it will be even less ready to give in than concerning key national issues became evident just a day or two after the Political Committe of the Council of Europe approved membership of Croatia. Although he pledged his word that he would obey recommendations of the Council of Europe in the case of Zagreb, Tudjman refused to appoint the third opposition mayor, the Liberal Ivo Skrabalo.

Moreover, after the good news from Strasbourg, sharp accusations followed one after the other against the opposition which also wrote to Strasbourg asking the Council of Europe not to take the crisis in Zagreb as a reason for rejection of Croatia. Obviously assessing that things might get out of hand if it should be accepted that the opposition had the right to negotiate about conditions for Croatia's membership, the HDZ did everything possible to preserve its monopoly to Europe. The opposition became a target of everyday accusations in the media, and the ruling party last week devoted a special session of its Presidency to it. A proclamation was issued from it to the citizens of Zagreb and whole of Croatia in which the opposition was qualified as a "hypocritical coalition" and "ridiculous seven-head association" which is held together only by the wish to "overthrow this government which led Croatia on its road to freedom and independence".

As one can see, this is a case of firing from heavy long-range artillery, which is nothing new, because the leadership of the HDZ always used this method whenever it seemed that its position was shaken, or just seen through. This time, however, everything is happening under spotlights from Europe, and the dilemmas the ruling structure is faced with are much farther-reaching and deeper. That this is so is shown by a severe warning addressed to the opposition that it must have in mind that "many influential European officials condition integration of Croatia into Europe with its previous connection with other states of south-eastern Europe". This new threat with the spectre of Yugoslavia may be just part of the appropriate propagandist rhetorics, but dilemmas of the ruling elite about benefits of joining Europe cannot be excluded, since maybe it is after all easier and simpler to remain "one's own master on one's own". The fact that nowadays, on the eve of the debate in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, verbal delict is practically reintroduced into the Croat penal legislature speaks in favour of this.

Since the 21 items from Strasbourg pay special attention to the freedom of media, this can be understood as a conscious provocation for the Council of Europe, in order to cross its threshold with as much evidence on preserved national sovereignty and independence as possible. If something should go wrong, it could be an alibi that anational Euro-crats wished to subjugate and assimilate the proud Croats, which unfortunately they did not manage to do.

MARINKO CULIC