THE APPARITION OF YUGOSLAVIA

AIM Zagreb, March 25, 1996

There has not lately been a single public appearance of Croat President Tudjman, especially for internal use, in which with utmost vehemence and the already customary convulsion on his face, he did not swoop down on certain attempts of revival of Yugoslavia, known obviously to him alone. In his report on the situation of the Croat state and nation in 1995 which he read to Assembly deputies on January 15, he said: "It is not by mere chance that lately, in certain circles, ideas have been appearing on the need of a new Yugoslav or Balkan union of South-Eastern Europe. And all that is explained by a need for alleged better economic, customs and communication connections of this region with the European Union."

About ten days ago in Benkovac, at a celebration of the sixth anniversary of foundation of HDZ committee in this town and "the attempt on the life" of its president, which was in fact a skilfull manoeuvre of the HDZ to draw attention, Tudjman said again that "plots are weaved in the world to return Croatia into Yugoslavia which is amiably called Euroslavia, Adriatic confederation, Balkan union, the alliance of Black-Sea & Adriatic countries. And in fact they wish to remove the Croat President". Having used the opportunity to accuse the opposition for the same shady activity, because it wants to overthrow the HDZ and himself, Tudjman declared: "We who knew how to exit from the abyss and hell, we will know how to resolve all other problems which are in front of us".

Who is Tudjman actually settling accounts with, who are the sharp words addressed to that the Croats will no more be "chicken without heads", nor will they return to "waste lands", especially after they have "overthrown socialism" and come out of the "abyss of hell"? Is Tudjman just scaring the nation with revival of hell without any particular cause and just for the sake of internal needs, in order to weave the story about union of internal and external enemies which again have "inimical emigrants" among them, and all that happening at the time of "historic reconciliation of all Croats"? Why does not he, in all his numerous occasions of scaring the nation with the bogeyman of Yugoslavia, ever mention which are these alleged foreign centres and powers which tend to return the Croats into Yugoslavia, except for the inevitable "internal traitors" and those "Yugo-nostalgic"?

The first to offer a project on revival of Yugoslavia back in 1992 was Boris Vukobrat, a Paris businessman of Serb (Croat) origin. Because of his (alleged) close relations with the former French President Mitterand, paid advertisements in large world dailies and several gatherings held on this subject, some people assessed this as the official French stance. A harmless last-year gathering in Paris which was also financed by Vukobrat, was reason for the official Croat policy to indicate it as main evidence of revival of Yugoslavia. However, Mr. Vukobrat's initiatives, although they remained on the level of a minimum of togetherness, almost just of a customs union or similar, did not win support even in Serbia, let alone in other countries established after dissolution of the SFRY.

There were times when ideas about a Balkan or similar loose creation arrived from certain Bulgarian circles, but how seriously the official politics of this country took them was best illustrated by the joint statement of presidents Tudjman and Zele Zelev which literally claimed that the two countries were opposed to the ideas about creation of some Balkan associations. There were certain initiatives in this sense in Greece too, but it seems that this country cares more for Macedonia, even its division between its three or four neighbours and union with Serbia than for any form of Yugoslavia.

In the meantime, from the conference on economic revival of the former Yugoslav space, one could hear demands about the need of increased cooperation of countries- successors, that revival would begin in Bosnia and spread towards the "periphery", but all that together went to the dogs because nobody was ready to provide the money for it. Finally, all things considered, the only idea which remained topical and which is occasionally repeated is the one which originated in Italian Farnesine (the palace of foreign affairs), which offered the project of "Euroslavia" via the journal "Limes": inclusion of all former Yugoslav states and Albania directly into the European Union. As explained by a connoisseur of Italian circumstances Inoslav Besker (correpondent of Vjesnik from Rome), reasons for this project are political: these countries, except for Slovenia, cannot fulfill the conditions, but it is better to include and control them, than have them at the border as constantly discontented sources of instability.

The recent journey of foreign minister Susanna Agnelli to Skopje and Tirana should be observed in this context. The operation in Macedonia and Albania suits Croatia just fine, because they are "natural partners" of Belgrade, but it would not be good for Zagreb if the Italian initiative were primarily directed towards rapprochement between Skopje, Tirana and Belgrade. But, in that case, it would not be "revival of Yugoslavua", but creation of a counterpart to the "new regional power". But, most probably Italy just intends to reestablish its influence in its former interest zone (Albania and Montenegro), although this would leave the issue of Kosovo open, and especially that of Macedonia, where the Americans have arrived a long time ago.

But, be that as it may, Tudjman obviously implies Italian Euroslavia which has no real chances to succeed, because Italy itself is not powerful enough, because it does not even fulfill the conditions set in Maastricht. Therefore, even if there were any tangible proof for his tirades about returning to Yugo-hell, Tudjman must be aware that it is "a tiger of Italian paper", so he quite certainly has something else in mind, but does not dare say what he is driving at. He is afraid to say it openly, but for the time being lets his spokesman Nenad Ivankovic, Vjesnik's correspondent from Bonn do it, who keeps explaining to the Croats what is happening in their homeland and elsewhere, that it is nothing but Washington and Dayton agreement.

Namely, that is the only serious and signed international initiative which in a specific way reunites a large space of former Yugoslavia. If it is intended to preserve B&H as an integral state, which is allegedly the aim of the Americans, then Croatia and Serbia will have to be in some kind of relations. Some things like the provision that an entity (Muslim-Croat) has the right to confederation with Croatia, and the other (Republic of Srpska) with Serbia, are a legal novelty never registered by either theory or practice. But, that is exactly what was signed in Dayton, so through Bosnia & Herzegovina, three or even four states of former Yugoslavia will be connected in a form of a strange association, a "peculiar duckbill".

And Tudjman, although he was the one who signed it, does not wish to have anything to do with the Serbs, just as the Serbs do not wish to be in a joint state with the Croats and the Muslims. That is the apparition of Yugoslavia that Tudjman has been waving in front of the public for months, but does not wish to say explicitly that he sees the future Federation of B&H just as an extension of Croatia. That part of direct speech about lack of logic in the Dayton agreement, he leaves over to Ivankovic who unambiguously stated a few days ago that in establishment of the federation was not in a crisis, but undergoing just logical development. This "natural course" of events is used to justify all controversies between the Croats and the Muslims, all misunderstandings concerning the port of Ploce, national cantons and districts, which is increasingly pushing Izetbegovic, who does not seem to have given up the concept of powerful central authorities, into the embrace of the Serbs.

Tudjman is quite certain that the "peculiar duckbill" cannot survive, so he already sees Bosnia & Herzegiovina as divided into three entities and territories, but fails to see that policy supported by his Herzegovinian lobby stands in the way to his own political objectives. Because, however skilfully he may be steering his boat, and it is well known that subtlety is not the strongest part of his nature, he cannot get it all. Namely, Croatia may be established as a leading regional power in South-Eastern Europe only with the Bosnian Muslims, and by no means against them. Should he continue dividing Bosnia under the guise of a struggle against revival of Yugoslavia, he may actually live to see Yugoslavia revived, but without Slovenia and Croatia.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC