ON THE FRONTLINE

The Authorities, the Opposition and Kosovo

AIM, March 20,1996

"Milosevic's career and rise began in Kosovo, and it is there that he must suffer defeat", commented recently the former president of the provincial committee of the League of Communists of Kosovo, lawyer Azem Vlasi. Nevertheless, it is a fact that no one here, despite the numerous political "defeats" of the Serbian president, clearly sees his end, nor, judging by everything, a clear denouement of the Kosovo knot.

Since 1987, when "on a pilgrimage" through the "Serbian Jerusalem" the president of Serbia promised that "no one may beat the people", to this very day, when the peace agreement for Bosnia has long been signed, the southern province has remained the object of scoring political points and calling people to task, both on the part of the ruling and the opposition political circles.

The recently concluded Conference on the National Issue, organized by the British Embassy in Belgrade, reaffirmed that the positions of the Serbian and Albanian sides are still on the frontline. While the Serbs, and here there is no difference between the authorities and the opposition, insist on positive regulations, the Albanians still adhere to the position implying the creation of their independent state. Despite this, in the past few months, and this is supported by the decision of the Federal Government on abolishing exit visas for Albania, there have been indications of a possible dialogue between the Government in Belgrade and the Albanian leaders from Kosovo.

Judging by the intensity of its media coverage, by those under the control of the authorities at that, the statement of the Kosovo leaders on the one and of the officials of the state on the other hand, it is clear that something is happening behind the scene. It is only disputable whether this is just "make believe" or whether a dialogue is truly wished, i.e. whether there exists a strategic plan for Kosovo's downfall.

"Under the pressure of the international community, primarily the USA, the authorities will cook up some sort of a solution for Kosovo, fashioned after the 1974 Constitution", says Milan Bozic, adviser to the leader of the strongest Serbian opposition party, the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) for AIM. According to him, the ten-year status quo in the south of Serbia is a result of the inertia of the authorities in Belgrade, which "agree to changes only under severe pressure". Bozic claims that "Slobodan Milosevic has no strategic plan, but sees Kosovo as a problem imposed from without, which he, depending on the political moment, resolves by giving piecemeal concessions".

If we go back just a few years (from this perspective this may seem like ancient history to say the least), even a cursory glance at SPO's then position will show us to which extent the opposition (ab)used precisely Kosovo, and the status of minorities in general, depending on the political moment. In September 1990, at a pre-election meeting in Novi Pazar (the province of Sanjak, with a majority Moslem population), Vuk Draskovic, leader of the SPO, said the following, among other things, in a fiery speech: "And when the SPO comes to power, everyone who in this Raska land holds up a Turkish (derogatory for Moslem) flag, an Albanian flag, any flag except the Serbian one, in his hand, will lose both his hand and his flag!" Today, in 1996, the SPO advocates a dialogue and the observance of all human and civil rights.

In view of the importance of the Kosovo issue for both sides - the Serbian because the international community unequivocally makes access to international finance conditional, inter alia, upon the solution of the problem of Kosovo - the Albanian because it is a chance to get rid of Serbian domination - every detail is carefully followed and equally carefully commented on.

Although the ruling Socialist Party of Serbia claims that there are no official initiatives yet, because the groundwork has not been prepared, there are speculations that the Yugoslav United Left (JUL), a party whose most influential official and factual leader is the wife of the Serbian president, Mirjana Markovic, could "clear the ground". Some independent Belgrade dailies, invoking well-informed sources, claim that this Party is implementing an action, sub-rosa for the time being, which consists of "gathering young and not compromised cadres, who are not burdened by nationalism and separatism".

Well-informed sources in Kosovo itself, journalists and analysts close to both sides, claim that this action has slim chances of success. "The JUL is neither the League of Communists of Tito's times, in which the influence of Albanians from Kosovo was considerable, nor do the Albanians, after everything that has happened in the former Yugoslavia in recent years, care to solve their problem in cooperation with former or present communists. The positions of the leaders of the international community are precisely opposite to those of the JUL, and the Albanian alternative in Kosovo is playing precisely that card", says one of them who wished to remain anonymous.

"Milosevic leaves warfare to others and he will, like in Bosnia, sign peace", said for AIM Tomislav Nikolic, vice-president of the right-oriented Serbian Radical Party which is very influential and not only in Serbia at that. Nikolic says that the first man of Serbia is "flying trial balloons", like the coalition partner of the socialists - New Democracy (the leader of this party recently visited Pristina) and less influential state officials, whose statements actually represent the position of the authorities. Nikolic sees this as a result of the "cul-de-sac" in which Slobodan Milosevic has found himself due to the pressure on the part of the international community. "A long and hard battle for Kosovo is ahead", continues the vice-president of Seselj's radicals, adding that Milosevic is "on the verge of leaving Serbia without its present south", which, as he said, meant that the "Serbs would be left without their true being".

In any case, only two years ago, when war was raging in Bosnia, the then Serbian national block (the radicals, the democrats of Zoran Djindjic and the Democratic Party of Serbia of Vojislav Kostunica) tried, with the help of several remaining, once Milosevic's Serbs from Kosovo, and now his bitter opponents, to revive the Serbian southern resistance movement. In the autumn of 1994 there appeared the "Letter to the Serbian Public" accusing the Serbian president of national treason. The idea fell through, what due to the war in Bosnia which was a higher political priority, what due to the small membership of the Kosovo "Resistance Movement". The attempt was doomed to failure from the very outset also because Milosevic launched a similar idea back in 1987 at the time of the awakening of nationalism, because he ensured mass support from other parts of Serbia and because, in recent years, both the essence and method have been used up. The opposition was "only" five to six years late.

The leader of the Democratic Party, Zoran Djindjic sees the issue of the credibility of the negotiators and contracts possibly concluded between the two sides as the most important one at the moment. "Only within a state with the rule of law, in which laws are observed, is it possible to resolve the Albanian question in Kosovo", suggests Djindjic remarking that "at the present time, all negotiations with the Albanians boil down to the conditions for their secession, i.e. co-existence with the Serbs and Serbia". The President of the Serbian Democrats is of the opinion that the authorities are only "simulating to wish negotiations, because they are doing nothing concrete to make them come true". "That is swinging between two extremes. On the one hand this is throwing dust into one's eyes, and one the other - secessionism encouraged precisely by that dust is increasing" - says Zoran Djindjic, forecasting that "in all likelihood, if this trend continues, the Albanians in Kosovo will, at the time of a state crisis, perhaps realize their aim, i.e. secession".

Despite everything, it is a fact that neither the authorites nor, evidently, the opposition, have a long-term solution for what everyone, up to a few years ago, called "holy Serbian land". The proposal of the somewhat neglected "father of the Serbian nation", Dobrica Cosic, made in 1991, on the division of Kosovo on the "basis of ethnic, historic and cultural rights" is mentioned ever less frequently.

Analysts envisage variants from a compromise to the radicalization of the problem. The latter could happen, believe these circles, if the international community perseveres in the position that the problem of Kosovo is Serbia's internal affair. Not a single of the quoted opposition politicians believes in the possibility that Albanian parties will take part in the election race, because that would mean that they recognized Belgrade's rule.

In a word, nothing new is offered. Things have not changed in Kosovo since the introduction of the state of emergency. And while the ruling circles, as it is believed, nevertheless have the upper hand and for "marketing reasons" express their wish for a dialogue, the opposition parties are holding their distance, satisfying themselves only with criticism of SPS's moves. The question arises of how many more circles the long ago hurled Kosovo boomerang will make.

(AIM) Danica Vucenic