HOW DO THE CROATS LIVE?
AIM Zagreb, February 25, 1996
In the past few days, the Croat state statistics administration once again showed that statistics is the science the state likes abusing the most in order to prove its successfulness, in this case the thesis about the economic miracle accomplished in Croatia. The administration claims that in December last year, average income in Croatia amounted to 1895 kunas (about 512 German marks), which is nominally by 37, and really by 30.7 per cent more than it was a year ago. At first sight everything seems to be alright, because the renowned English journal "Business Central Europe" arrived at similar data (about 352 US dollars), but they are nevertheless unrealistic. The only thing that can offer a realistic picture of increase of salaries is a comparison of January '96 with January '95, because since then money paid to workers for lunch is included in the salaries, and it amounted to 300 kunas. Until then, as an approximately accurate comparison, only January '95 and December '95 could be taken, and in that case it turns out that the increase amounted to 249 kunas or a little less than 15 per cent.
Even with this in mind, it is difficult to prove how the Croats live. Comparative data with countries of former Yugoslavia can be of help only to a certain extent. According to English assessments, Croatia has about 17 per cent of the unemployed, a foreign trade deficit of two billion dollars, gross national income of 3,524 dollars per capita. Slovenia's unemployment is about 14.2 per cent, deficit of its import-export balance amounts to 850 million dollars, the average national income is as much as 8,739 dollars, and average salary 611 dollars. Unemployment in Macedonia is 19 per cent, its deficit 200 million dollars, income per capita 1,600 dollars, and salary 177 dollars. Unemployment in FR of Yugoslavia reaches 25 per cent, the gross national income 1,466 dollars per capita, and average salary is just 93 dollars. Ratio of prices expressed in dollars or any other hard currency should be added to this in order to see how much an average family actually needs for mere survival.
Croatia would certainly still hold the second position it inherited from former Yugoslavia, but it would also become clear to anyone how its national currency has been over-estimated, and that it is not mere chance that foreigners who visit Zagreb get dizzy by mere looking at the prices.
Averages also conceal all kinds of processes which have been going on in the past five or six years in the socio-economic structure of the Croat society. They do not show what tectonic disturbances occurred, nor that Croatia is actually seriously threatened by a social explosion. According to an investigation conducted by Studio Weber and "Privredni vjesnik", it turns out that Croat society was severely divided into the poor and the rich, and that the middle class is either destroyed or threatened by total destruction. An analysis of the total household income, not just salaries, but of that which is called grey economy, shares, entrepreurship and other, shows that a Croat houselhold on the average has 3,789 kunas (about a thousand marks) a month. But, breaking down of this enviable figure clearly shows the crude reality:
income percentage of households
up to 1000 kunas 9,5 %
1001 to 3000 kunas 39,8 %
3001 to 5000 kunas 31,3 %
5001 to 7000 kunas 10,5 %
7001 and above 7,8 %
with no income 1,1 %
Therefore, about 10.6 per cent of the population is utterly impoverished, without any income or with up to 1000 kunas at their disposal which cannot cover even the essentials. This mostly refers to pensioners who do not live with anyone a joint household, so it becomes clear why about twenty of them who live downtown Zagreb have given notice to quit consuming electric power supply. However, this figure also includes those who have been left without their jobs, or live on social welfare.
The greatest group among them are families which on the average have 3.1 members, and their monthly income amounts to a sum between 1000 and 3000 kunas, which is again 2000 kunas on the average. But, it seems that the greatest disadvantage of this investigation is its large categories, so that it is impossible to know how many among them receive, let us say, 1500 kunas, and how many are approaching the upper limit of 3000 kunas. But, despite this, analyzes show that as much as 59 per cent of a household budget is spent on satisfying the very essential existential needs (food and overhead expenses). Households with the income between 1001 and 3000 kunas at best reflect the current social reality of the Croat society, because they are exceptionally close to what is called the verge of poverty.
That is why the direction in which this largest group of about 40 per cent of Croat families will be decisive concerning the further formation of social structure. In fact, whether the fuse on the social bomb will fo off will depend greatly on the fact whether they will climb up on the social scale or continue to sink towards poverty.
The so-called standard mean includes 31.3 per cent of households with the income between 3001 and 5000 kunas, but with 3.96 members on the average. This leads to the conclusion that they do not live much better than the "decisive majority". This is verified by the fact that they spend 58 per cent on food and overhead expenses, but that the remaining distribution of their expenses is quite similar, just like the potential direction of their social mobility. Investigators believe that the first possibility is that they will get even closer to the "decisive majority" in the sense of decline of their standard of living. The second, and more probable possibility is that they will stabilize in the middle of the socio-economic scale, integrate with the rising parts of the "decisive majority", and form a firm and stable conglomeration of various "middle layers". Realization of such a possibility implies that the standard of living of this part of the population will grow by the average characteristic of the entire society.
The third possibility - rise towards the top - is excluded by analysts. Why? Primarily because this group of households does not possess enough capital, because the time of "the initial accumulation of capital" is either over or nearly over, that is, the best cards have already been dealt.
The fourth group which is called the "possible top" by the investigators, has 4.3 members of the household on the average and it is typical of urban environments. Special determinant of this group is that the largest percentage among them (23.9%) possess shares or other property, so there is a possibility of their going up in the society.
And finally, the group of households whose income is over 7000 kunas (with 4.34 members) represents the population with the highest socio-economic status. This category is at the same time the most complex one because it includes both the old and the "nouveaux riches". Most of them (62.4 %) live in their own houses, and only the smallest part of them (8.9%) in state-owned apartments. About 27 per cent of them possess a summer home as well, and 90 per cent possess a car, 19.8 per cent have shares, but as many as 30 per cent possess their own enterprise. This category should be further divided in order to see how many actually rich people Croatia has, and how many of them are where they used to be, although they have been classified among the top echelons, or are in fact below what they had before 1990. Because an income of about 1600-2000 kunas per member of household cannot exactly be called a fortune.
Comparisons with a similar investigation from the times of socialism show that the groups have actually remained the same, but only at first sight, because the difference is in the fact that the golden middle is now on the verge of pauperization with no end to it in sight.
GOJKO MARINKOVIC