CAREFULLY MAKING THE MOVES

AIM Skopje, February 6, 1996

Taking forever with the beginning of reconstruction of the Government which is allegedly supported by everyone, primarily is a reflection of unstable ground coalition partners have found themselves on. Possible exclusion of disobedient Liberals could improve the position of the two remaining partners of the Social Democratic Alliance of Macedonia, the Socialists and the Party of Democratic Prosperity.

Reconstruction of Macedonian Government was announced almost two months ago. It was supposed to "improve its efficiency", and it is still in the focus of interest of the public, primarily because the first man of the executive power, Social Democrat Branko Crvenkovski does not seem to be resolute enough to get it over with.

The main problem which doubtlessly causes the greatest concern of the Prime Minister are relations between his own and the Liberal Party (LP) headed by the untouchable Stojan Andov (the current Chairman of the Macedonian parliament and pursuant to the Constitution, the second man in state hierarchy), whose mutual "communication" has been reduced to the level of statements through public media.

Specific guidelines expected to be issued after the meeting of the Central Council of the Social Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM), which after all has the mandate to executive power, failed to appear and additionally blurred the prospects of a "freshened up" cabinet. A scanty statement (given to the media, of course) that the Council of the party supported reconstruction proposed by the Prime Minister, and inclusion of ministers from the Liberal Party in the reconstruction, did not contribute much to clarification of the dilemma. What was not done through public statements, came via "unofficial" information coming from the leadership of Social Democrats. Based on all these speculations, it was possible to conclude that the Social Democrats did not wish a coalition with "disloyal" Liberals at all, since the latter are constantly acting as an opposition within the "position", and that they would be very happy to get rid of this "burden" which makes ruling difficult for them (it seems much more than the Albanians from the Party of Democratic Prosperity-PDP). Such an attitude, although on the level of speculations, considerably cooled the heads of the Liberals who were obviously caught unprepared, so that afterwards complete hush fell on the camp of the Liberals who did not seem to have expected such a merciless stance of their election "fellow-combatants" with whom they expected to build a "safe home" for all Macedonian citizens.

The fact that the Prime Minister is obviously avoiding a meeting with the Liberals illustrates how resolute Social Democrats are, although he has in the meantime completed consultations with two remaining partners in the coalition, the Socialist Party (SP) and the PDP, in order to find the best solutions for the "new" government. How serious the situation actually is can also be verified by unofficial sources from the mentioned two parties which claim that the Liberals have turned to them for help, asking them to use their influence on the Prime Minister to keep the Liberals in the government!? But, it seems that this will not be possible! According to other unofficial sources from the SDSM, his party ordered the Prime Minister not to give in to the Liberals, or else he would lose party support!?

Although it seems that the situation is "clear" and that the Prime Minister could finally publicize the list of changes in his cabinet - without the Liberals (who have not placed their confidence in him for formation of the current Government), it is not all that simple. With no doubt, one of the major dilemmas of the Prime Minister is how the Liberals will react? If one knows that there are indications that they could join the opposition which is not represented in the parliament (VMRO-DPMNE and the PD), it becomes clear why the announced reconstruction of the Government is delayed.

There is no doubt that a combination of the large membership of the VMRO-DPMNE and the economic basis of the "party of directors" (the LP is believed to have majority of directors of public enterprises among its members) could seriously threaten the position of the "new" government which would be even more vulnerable because it would depend much more on the will of the Albanian partner in the coalition, the Party of Democratic Prosperity, which is quite dissatisfied with the status of the Albanians in the state. But, it will not be easy for the Liberals either to say good-bye to the position they have acquired based on the latest division of power. One of the key issues remains the one on the future of the first man of the parliament, Stojan Andov. Unofficially it is claimed that it was promised to him that he would not be removed from his post even if members of his party were forced to leave the executive power, just in order to keep this powerful party under some control, and in order to prevent its vengeful attempt to win power back again, this time with the "unpredictable" Ljupce Georgievski and the former leader of Social Democrats, Petar Gosev. Best defence from such an assault would be a stable government in which the role of the Albanian partner would be highly significant. That something is already being done in this respect is verified by sources from the PDP, according to which they would get an additional post in the Government (now they have four ministries), as a collateral for increased fidelity.

As concerning the PDP, they have offered full support to reconstruction of the Government, despite the repeated threats they would withdraw from it due to dissatisfaction with the use of the Albanian language, especially in university education. Although names are not mentioned, it is quite certain that there will be changes among the ministers from this party. One of them (the current minister of culture) will have to leave his post. It seems that concerning his departure an agreement was reached that he had failed to meet expectations both of his own party and those of the Macedonian partner. He was resented by the first for having expressed doubts about the decision to open the University in Tetovo, and by the latter for having changed his opinion afterwards and publicly visited the University.

When speaking of the final list of reconstructed government which was expected to be publicized in the past few days, it will probably be known by the end of next week. For the time being, it is believed that some of the ministers from the Liberal Party might change party "colours" and join the SDSM (largest bets are placed on the possibility that it will be the steady foreign minister). Changes in the team of the SDSM itself, should also be expected, but most probably they will be just rotary. Some assume that the Prime Minister will offer a much longer list of changes - of more than one third of the present composition of the Government (which would automatically imply a procedure as if a new government was being formed), and fill up posts of deputy and assistant ministers which have remained vacant so far or which have remaine the same as in the previous government (dating back to 1990) due to disagreement of coalition partners about division of posts. In any case, a lot will depend on the final decision on the "destiny" of the Liberals which is expected to be made any time now.

IBRAHIM MEHMETI