B&H PRIME MINISTER DISMISSED

POLITICAL TRANSFERS FROM THE OPPOSITION TO THE AUTHORITIES AND BACK

AIM Sarajevo, January 23, 1996

Dismissal of Haris Silajdzic, or as Sarajevo administration calls it, "Silajdzic's withdrawal from the post of the Prime Minister of the Republic", is actually the climax of a smouldering conflict between the Prime Minister and the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), in other words, of a process of cleansing of party ranks of unloyal members which might prove to be problematic in the forthcoming election campaign.

Disagreements and public confrontations among the heads of this party (Silajdzic is still officially the Vice-President of Izetbegovic's party) gradually turned into opposed factions within the SDA. Incriminated Silajdzic, as claimed, is the head of a minor liberal faction of the party, and Izetbegovic, with unlimited loyalty of the other two vice-presidents (E. Bicakcic and E. Ganic), of the so-called hard-core SDA. In view of the strength and large number of Izetbegovic's supporters, both within the party and in state and military agencies, dismissal of Silajdzic has for months been just a matter of days. The fact that among the citizens, the by now former Prime Minister ranks much higher than any of the members of the ruling party, and even Izetbegovic himself does not seem to be of any significance.

The end of peace negotiations on Bosnia - with Silajdzic, according to what participants claimed, being the favourite guest in Dayton, or rather the one who the American tutors in B&H found it easiest to communicate with - marked the time of settling accounts with the "unmanageable" party vice-president. His presence in party headquarters has become not only undesirable, but a dangerous burden. Separation of the republican from the federal Government, reduction of the number of ministries and candidacy of ministers exclusively at will of the SDA and the HDZ - which clashed with Silajdzic's proposals and interests - were the last drop which pushed Silajdzic out of his greatest stronghold - the prime minister's office.

After banishment from his office, it is hard to believe that Silajdzic will keep his other post - that of the vice-president of the Party of Democratic Action. Even during the last year's conflicts with the party headquarters, the possibility of Silajdzic's founding a new party was mentioned, or his joining a party of the opposition. In the latter case, Union of B&H Social Democrats (UBSD) was mentioned most frequently, due to the support Tuzla offered Silajdzic in his clashes with the leaders of the SDA, but also due to his hurried departure to this city after publication of his letter of resignation addressed to the headquarters of the SDA. Little is known in public about his negotiations with leaders of the UBSD in Tuzla, but reconciliation of Silajdzic with the leaders of the SDA at the time (arranged by Izetbegovic in person) interrupted for a short while rumours about Silajdzic's transfer to the opposition.

Repeated differences between the Prime Minister and the ruling party on one, and the evident shift of Kadic's Liberals to the right and the expected election coalition of his party with Izetbegovic's SDA on the other hand, stirred rumours that Silajdzic and members of the SDA close to him would end up among the Liberals. This would end the conflict within the SDA, as the liberal faction within the ruling party claims, opposed party factions would thus separate from each other to a tolarable distance, and total control over the opposition block would be established after incorporating the Liberals into the coalition, and the Liberal Party, from a miniature party, would grow into a party which would be significant in the future.

Preparations for transfer of members of the SDA into the ranks of the Liberals were made by Izetbegovic himself who publicly praised the Liberal Party, forecasting its good results at the forthcoming elections as the only promising party contrary to other opposition parties which he called "prattling parties". After such declarations made by Izetbegovic, Rasim Kadic and the Liberals became favourites of journals close to the ruling SDA.

Izetbegovic's giving preference to the Liberals, one of the smallest parties in B&H (it is claimed in Sarajevo that in the case of its new registration, it would not manage to even collect thirty signatures of party leadership required by the legislature), verified local "whispering" that membership of the Liberal Party was supplemented by known names from the SDA. Allegedly, Kadic's agreement to be a partner of the SDA was motivated by expectations of strong players who would be transferred by SDA headquarters into this party, and along with known differences of the ruling party with Silajdzic, it was naively expected that the Prime Minister would be a compensation for the transfer of the Liberals. According to what independent "Slobodna Bosna" journal writes, Kadic's initial intentions were to use Silajdzic's name in the election campaign "in the way Slovene Liberals used the authority of Dr Janez Drnovsek". But, as it is hard to believe that Silajdzic (who is claimed to be exceptionally vain) would agree to be vice-president to youngish Kadic, it was equally unrealistic to expect that the leader of the Liberals Rasim Kadic would have the possibility to choose members of the SDA who he would get as coalition dowry. In such a game, however, the right to decision-making belongs to the stronger party, in this case the SDA, so instead of Silajdzic's, the name of the Minister for refugees and displaced persons Muharem Cero (close to Kadic since before the war) is heard more frequently nowadays, but also the name of the man who has replaced Silajdzic at the post of the new mandatary of the republican Government, Dr Hasan Muratovic. Namely, the new republican Prime Minister declaratively is not a member of the Party of Democratic Action, although his loyalty to Izetbegovic and formal belonging to the SDA is not doubted by anyone. Muratovic's joining the Liberals and his appointment to the post of the Prime Minister would thus deny allegations of the opposition that B&H Government was a single-party Government, that is, divided between two opposed groups of ministers - those from the SDA and those from the HDZ. On the other hand, closeness between Murativic's and Kadic's Liberals is verified by their business links in their joint enterprise called "Jump" which suddenly, from being an average Sarajevo firm, developed into a profitable one which successfully finances even events on the level of the state, such as the recent election of the sportsman of the year in B&H.

Nevertheless, the top topic here is not the "new image" of the Liberals, but intentions and ambitions of the former prime minister, Haris Silajdzic. As announced at the last pre-Convention session of the Executive Board of the SDA, expulsion of Haris Silajdzic from the leadership of the party is proposed (and probably will be adopted) at the next plenary session of the party scheduled for the end of the month. Expectations that Silajdzic would become independent as suggested for quite some time by the West which is inclined towards him is viewed as a springboard for formation of a new party by many analysts of the B&H political scene. And yet, Silajdzic himself never certified such intentions nor did he ever state anything of the kind, which might mean that this cautious politician profoundly analyzed similar attempts such as, for example, Zulfikarpasic's MBO in B&H or Mesic's and Manolic's HND in Croatia. Vis-a-vis the possibility of forming of a new party by Haris Silajdzic stands allegedly the proposal for the former prime minister to appear as an independent candidate for the highest posts in the state of a possible coalition of opposition parties (UBSD, SDP, MBO, HSS) which is also being announced lately.

Probably, we will not have to wait long for Silajdzic's decision. Election race in B&H has already started, and the capital of popularity which the former prime minister obviously possesses should be invested somewhere as soon as possible.

DRAZENA PERANIC