FOOLISHLY USED JOKER

AIM Zagreb, January 17, 1996

Croat President Tudjman is a good example of a man who is never satisfied with what he has and always wants more, but also of a man who never changes his ways although he pretends to have changed. In other words, despite all "flashes", "storms" and such like military operations, his Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) managed to ensure a perceptible majority in the Assembly only after applying some election engineering, small foul dealings and a grant of 12 deputies from diaspora called Herzeg-Bosnia. He experienced the greatest shock from Zagreb, his previous stronghold, where in city Assembly elections the HDZ won only 35 per cent of votes. Then Dayton and Paris signatures followed which further eroded Tudjman's popularity, especially due to Bosnian Posavina and Prevlaka, but also due to obvious evidence that he had bargained with Slobodan Milosevic. Pimples of economic and social crisis have thus developed into festering pustules which have started to burst, and as peace approached, internal Croat unrest grew.

It all resulted in a rapid drop of Tudjman's popularity, but also in the fact that, according to certain newspaper polls, the voters massively started losing confidence in the HDZ, which nowadays reaches hardly some thirty per cent of the potential votes. Thus Tudjman found himself in a cross-fire within Croatia, but it is not all roses for him without Croatia either. Croatia was accused of crimes perpetrated after operation "Storm" in Krajina, it was required from it to withdraw the laws which had placed Serb property under temporary patronage of the state and to enable return of all refugees who wish to do so. Just thanks to Germany, Security Council did not adopt a resolution concerning all that, but just a Presidential Statement. The situation in Mostar became very complicated, where IFOR was forced to intervene, and foreign ministers of Germany and Croatia, Klaus Kinkel and Mate Granic, started on a peace mission into this divided city which is the best reflection of the future of the Federation. But, there was shooting not just in Mostar, but in Central Bosnia as well, where conflicts between the Croats and the Muslims started all over again. t

And then, as manna from the sky, Bill Clinton landed at Zagreb "Pleso" airport for a two-hour visit. It is true that he did not blow the saxophone that was there ready for him, but nevertheless he declared: "I have come to thank President Tudjman and the people of Croatia, those people from Croatia who are offering support to peace and the peace process. I have also come to express support not only to the peace process, but to the Muslim-Croat Federation as well, in order to support the peace agreement which will enable peaceful return of Croat territories in Eastern Slavonia and which should enable partnership of Croatia, not only with the USA, but also with other Western countries which believe in freedom, human rights, democracy and peace, progress and joint activities".

Everything he had thus promised was then fulfilled. On January 15, the Security Council adopted two resolutions on Croatia which it had nothing to complain about, since both the one concerning UNTAES in Eastern Slavonia and the one on Prevlaka are founded on the assumption of unchanged borders, i.e. on recognition of Croatia within the borders established after World War Second. Forces of five thousand soldiers and 600 civilian policemen, as well as the transitional administrator, retired American general Jack Klein, were charged with the task to demilitarize Eastern Slavonia, Baranja and Western Srem within a month. What makes the Croat party especially joyful is the fact that UN forces are given their mandate pursuant Chapter VII of the UN Charter, which means that they are entitled to apply force, that they will be formed by members of the NATO, that they will be able to ask assistance from IFOR, and seek air-force support. All this indicates that the USA have decided to finally resolve this last big problem of Croatia, by hook or by crook. At the same time, the resolution on Prevlaka, pursuant to which the situation there remains unchanged, offered Tudjman the possibility to get out of the big scrape he had incautiously and without authority gotten himself into while negotiating about exchange of territories.

This latter resolution was assessed by the Croat UN representative Vladimir Drobnjak as being congruent to Croat interests, but as a compromise added that "Prevlaka cannot be considered as a border dispute between Croatia and Yugoslavia, but the central problem is in fact the bay of Boka Kotorska. Croatia is ready to continue the search for a peaceful solution of the existing problems, and supports the standpoint that the access to the port of Boka Kotorska in neighbouring Montenegro should be free".

All this, along with Granic's visit to Belgrade and the announced cpntinuation of talks with the Yugoslav foreign Minister Milutinovic in Zagreb this week, which was directly ordered from Washington, shows that the USA are holding things firmly in their hands. The painful issue of Bosnia & Herzegovina, however, remains open, since although the Croat press has not registered it, it is an established fact that Clinton demanded from Tudjman to intervene and end the conflicts there. It is, therefore, obvious that Bill Clinton, with his short stop at Zagreb airport which is here persistently attempted to be presented as an official visit to Croatia, has largely helped Tudjman to reinforce his position.

But Tudjman would not be what he is if he had not grabbed even more than the opportunity offered him and, feeling strong again, continued as before. The best proof for that is his almost three-hour long speech at the joint session of both chambers of the Assembly which was his "1995 Report on the Croat State and Nation". There is a lot of disturbing things in this report, primarily clear indications of what the President imagines democracy is, and his almost explicit announcement of introduction of dictatorship and totalitarian regime accompanied by a series of threats. This presentation of Tudjman's would hardly stand the test of an even superficial logical analysis and it is a perfect example of how premises which are not a function of the conclusion or a synthesis should never be used.

Here is an example which can give one a headache: "Croat democratic authorities has not held anyone responsible for participation in the anti-national communist regime. But, nowadays, after the final victory and establishment of the Croat state, certain remnants of the former Yugo-communist system cannot be tolerated any more since they are becoming a hindrance and a stronghold of obstruction in certain spheres of state policy, by abusing democracy and moreover by openly initiating actions which would compromise and even overthrow the democratically elected authorities. In view of instances of obvious abuse of democracy, open demands to compromise and unstabilize the democratically elected authorities, not only the Office of National Security, but the entire democratic public must deal with sources and ultimate goals of such instances". After that, almost boyishly, or perhaps as a typical general, Tudjman wonders: "It is notable that such instances have intensified in the concluding period of the Homeland war and that they continue regardless of its outcome".

Tudjman has evidently revealed a host of inside enemies when Croatia has become stronger than ever and when, according to his words, it has got rid of its main enemies and unstabilizing element - the Serbs. And according to his words, it turns out that there are about 65 per cent of such enemies in Zagreb alone, since regardless of the will of the voters, Tudjman will say that district-prefects, and therefore the mayor of Zagreb as well, are primarily representatives of central state authorities on the local level. And in order to be quite clear, he explains what he thinks central authorities should be like: "The President of the Republic, as the head of the state, is not just the holder of formal executive power, but on the basis of direct elections, he is also the representative of national sovereignty whose duty is to take care that the constitutional system is obeyed, that the existence and integrity of the Republic of Croatia is ensured, as well as regular activities of the authorities on the whole, and of their elements which are the legislature, the executive power and the judiciary.

A number of other similar "democratic" citations could be listed, which were sharply warned against by representatives of the opposition parties. Ante Djapic, for example, from the Croat Party of Right, close to the HDZ, says that the report is too long, self-satisfied and problematic. He stresses the example of Zagreb, since according to Tudjman, the Law on Local Self-Administration is questioned. Silvije Degen of the Action of Social Democrats believes that the report is full of self-praise, that it lacks criticism, but also includes certain dangerous assessments and even threats addressed at all those who do not fit in glorification of everything the President considers to be a success. Stjepo Martinovic from the Croat National Party is blunt and claims that time has come to clearly say that the President is marching towards dictatorship. Stjepan Mesic, President of Croat Independent Democrats believes that this is an announcement of totalitarianism, and Liberal Jozo Rados adds that "enemies, international conspiracy, foreign powers are blamed for all our failures, and there is not a single word about our own mistakes". Marko Veselica, President of the Croat Christian Democratic Union claims that this is erecting personality cult, and Dobrosav Paraga from the HSP 1861 proclaimed Tudjman's speech a three-hour torture for all those who think with their own heads, "and there are, thank God, 64 per cent of them in Zagreb, and in Croatia their number will certainly increase".

Tudjman has, therefore, got an injection from the Americans, but it is doubtful whether he has ruined it and used it foolishly with his "royal" speech?

GOJKO MARINKOVIC