ZAGREB DISPELLING THE MYTH ABOUT TUDJMAN'S

INVINCIBILITY?

AIM Zagreb, January 7, 1996

After numerous legal and other complications, the opposition has finally gotten hold of the administration in Zagreb, where in the elections two and a half months ago, the alliance of seven opposition parties won a predominant, almost two-third majority of votes. At a repeated constituting session of the City Assembly - the first one was abrogated by the Government and the Constitutional Court because there was no quorum at it due to boycott of all deputies of the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) - a sufficient number of deputies appeared and with a majority of votes elected Zdravko Tomac (SDP) the new Chairman of the Assembly, and Goran Granic (HSLS) the new Mayor.

This is so far the greatest election victory of the opposition which is in power in several big cities, but has never gotten anywhere near winning in Zagreb which was considered to be the "stronghold of HDZ" for years. On the other hand, coming of HDZ deputies to the re-convened constituting session was just a breathing space and preventing scheduling of early elections just as yet. The ruling party considers the election of the new leaders in the capital illegitimate, because the HDZ has won relative majority in the elections (32 per cent) and claims that it has the right to the post of the mayor denying this right to the opposition with more than dubious, in fact ridiculous explanation that this is a coalition which cannot survive because it gathered all kinds of people "from communists to fascists".

To make the matter even more paradoxical, the accusing qualification that this is an "unprinicipled coalition" is used, which was once applied to north-western republics in the former joint state. Just as they do not shrink from using all kinds of language in backbiting the opposition, neither do they shrink from applying all kinds of methods in unabling it to take over power in the capital. A rigid constitutional provision which enables the President of the Republic not to verify election of the newly elected mayor (which is not the case with the post of the chairman of City Assembly) works in favour of the HDZ, which the Government of Zlatko Mates has already suggested Franjo Tudjman to use. Indeed, if Tudjman fails to verify election of Granic, the Assembly majority can reject his decision, and if a joint solution is not found in two rounds, the head of the state shall nominate a commissioner, some kind of a coercive administrator, but only for 60 days, after which time early elections shall be scheduled.

All things considered, that is exactly what will happen, so the elections might take place in approximately four months, instead of two, which would have happened had the HDZ deputies failed to attend the repeated constituting session, because had that been the case, a commissioner would have been appointed immediately. Why is the HDZ obstinately refusing to agree to Goran Granic becoming the new mayor? Officially, they claim that he is completely unacceptible because this important post - which allegedly implies access to highly sensitive security data (which has never been mentioned before) - cannot be entrusted to a man who conceived the plan of HSLS how to take over power from the HDZ in the Assembly two years ago. Goran Granic does not conceal that he made such a plan for his party, but believes that it is a legitimate right of the opposition, and HDZ has until now never paid much attention to this fact, which is best verified by the fact that Granic was quite acceptable for the HDZ to be elected Vice-Chairman of the Assembly.

Obviously, there are other reasons for rejecting Granic, and the opposition is probably on the right track when it claims that by taking over power in Zagreb it would reveal numerous malversations in managing city property, primarily in the business sphere, state-owned apartments, and it is also claimed that former "city elders" had a habit of accepting illegal commissions for many business deals related to reconstruction of the city. Hundreds million German marks were spent on it, although a widespread opinion of the public is that this was an expensive and inappropriate caprice of Tudjman to turn the "capital city of all Croats" into a glorious metropolis, while some of the architectural solutions provoked marked aversion (tearing down of the Flower Square and construction of a new one, in cold marble, which reminded many of "aesthetics" of an autopsy chamber). All the wrath caused by such accusations primarily among the city leaders but also those of the state is now directed towards Zdravko Tomac and especially Goran Granic.

That things have gotten out of hand, beyond any rational judgement and self-control is best illustrated by the fact that Franjo Greguric, who is otherwise known as a member of the moderate faction in the HDZ, demanded at a closed meeting of the leadership of the party that the head of Croat diplomacy publicly renounced his brother Goran. Allegations that this schizophrenic demand is not completely lacking a tangible interest foundation appeared in non-government press, since it is believed that the "techno-managerial" wing of the HDZ which Greguric belongs to, is involved in dubious business transactions in the city the most, which could become first-class delicacy in the lobbies if Goran Granic happened to enter premises of former Mayor Branko Miksa. After all, that is exactly what Granic announced he would do before he was elected, so that wrath in the ranks of the HDZ against him has grown to such an extent that the ruling party offered, as the greatest concession in negotiations with the opposition, that it may keep the post of the mayor, but that anyone amy be nominated, in fact anyone else - but Granic.

But, as already said, a lot that has been said about him has obviously been exaggerated and made up, so the sense of the mentioned "concession" is certainly to cause a split among the opposition. That is why the opposition has not accepted this proposal, judging well that it had "conquered" Zagreb primarily thanks to being united. It was so firm and effective that the HDZ for the first time did not manage to contract a partnership with any party except with Sapic's HSP, which might be left without its leadership due to it (which is sharply criticized by Ante Prkacin, as "pro-Ustashe" oriented as Sapic himself, but less conventional, more talented and more popular than him). The power of the opposition lies mostly in the fact that its union was not initiated from above, that is by party leaders, as in the case of last year's "coup" of the opposition in the Assembly, but that inclination of the public in the capital of Croatia was decisive for it.

It had obviously become so dissatisfied with the situation in Zagreb which had become as exceedingly expensive as "exceedingly beautiful" (citizens of Zagreb pay a special tax for making the city more beautiful, which often ends up in pockets of political power-wielders). It also serves as a testing ground for testing the most radical ideas of the hard core HDZ, such as abolishing of multi-lingual high-schools which caused unanimous resistance, and even abomination of the public with its primitive explanation (allegedly for the sake of protection of the Croat language). Such frame of mind of the citizens of Zagreb provided a strong impetus to the opposition to unite, and at the same time completely isolated the HDZ and cut down its popularity in the city to hardly twenty per cent in the past two and a half months.

All eyes are turned towards Tudjman at this moment. Judging by the recommendation of the Government, within a fortnight he will reach a decision not to verify Granic's mandate which would bring about early elections with HDZ weaker than ever (although Tudjman is heard to be encouraging his associates that it is possible for them to achieve a decisive victory, which is a surprise for them). The opposition is awaiting Tudjman's decision without nervousness, convinced that Tudjman could be destroyed in this case. Probably their high hopes that Tudjman could fall are not too founded, but that for the beginning the myth about his invincibility could be dispelled is more than certain.

MARINKO CULIC