NATO AND MACEDONIA

AIM Skopje, December 2, 1995

With its decision to continue the mandate of UNPREDEP in Macedonia for another six months, UN Security Council resolved the dilemma concerning which international units would come or remain in this former Yugoslav republic, and whether they would stay here at all, after Dayton agreement has been initialled. The issue here was, in fact, whether, like in Bosnia, the NATO would perhaps replace the former 1100 blue helmets, out of which half were Americans, those who had arrived in a preventive mission of obstructing spilling of the war over the Bosnian and Croat borders into this Southern former Yugoslav republic.

This means that troops of the United Nations will remain in Macedonia, although the new Macedonian state has in the meantime become the 27th member of the NATO initiative "Partnership for Peace". Whatever anyone may think, though, there is good reason for the blue helmets to remain in Macedonia. Despite the peace agreement initialled in Dayton, which should be finally signed in Paris, all the danger that has threatened Macedonia, is still present. Primarily, it is still uncertain how Dayton Agreement will become operational in the field. On the other hand, even if it will, noone knows whether Belgrade might increase the pressure on this former Yugoslav republic in order to force it back into its Yugoslav embrace.

The first warning from the north has, in a certain way, already arrived and caused great concern among the Macedonian entrepreneurs. As soon as the Serb-Montenegrin Yugoslavia received the announcement about suspension of the sanctions, the administration in Belgrade introduced customs duty for the Macedonians ammounting to between 20 and 30 per cent. It is somewhat more lenient only to Macedonian exporters of raw materials and semi-products which will be liable to duty of only one to two per cent. In order to grasp fully the meaning of this move of the Yugoslav administration, one should have in mind two highly significant facts.

First, it has been a publicly known secret not only in Macedonia, but in the international community as well, that - in the past almost three-year long period Macedonian enterprises have violated on a large scale the embargo introduced against policy pursued by Belgrade. Thanks to Macedonian labels, Serb goods managed to reach markets banned to them by UN Security Council decisions. And vice versa, foreign goods arrived in Serbia only because it was written in the accompanying documents that their destination was Macedonia. The Macedonians received certain commission for it, and there are even quite a few of those who believe that Macedonia whose manufacturing has dropped by more than 50 per cent in the past four years, has economically survived thanks to that very transfer. Probably that is where one should seek reasons why the so-called international factors have looked through their fingers when Macedonia was concerned.

The other important fact in the context of which the decision of the administration in Belgrade should be observed is that one which says that in former Yugoslvia, more than 60 per cent (those who love precise figures, claim 62.4 per cent) of Macedonian economy was linked to the Serb market. In any case, Macedonia was caught unprepared and by surprise by the customs duty introduced by Belgrade. Those who have both before and during the war in former Yugoslav space, in one way or the other, lived off the Serb market, found themselves facing an enigma which they have no solution for yet.

If the war flames have perhaps actually turned away from Macedonia after the agreement in Dayton, the problem of economic uncertainty has more than ever opened for it. The decision of the Government in Belgrade was understood by observers in Macedonia as economic pressure exerted on this small Balkan state of two million inhabitants.

It seems also that there are still those who are not sure whether Macedonia has really ended up in the Western interest sphere. It seemed, and it still does, that this former Yugoslav republic has definitely become part of the region in which Washington has recognized "American interests". But, at the moment when Skopje expected that the mandate of UNPREDEP would be prolonged for another year, Security Council, due to reservations of Moscow, decided to prolong the mission only for another six months. Namely, Russia seems to believe that after Dayton and Croat-Muslim agreements on the destiny of Bosnia and cessation of the war, the danger of explosion in Macedonia has also ended. And therefrom, reasons for a longer stay of soldiers under the blue United Nations flag. The real issue is whether this is actually true?

Whatever may be the case, it is certain that there are still those who have doubts concerning the existence of definite agreements especially in the case of Macedonia. In other words, there are still those who believe that the game played around Macedonia has not been completed yet. The situation should alreday be clarified in the beginning of next year. Namely, Macedonian Ministry of Defence hopes that by that time, the individual program within "Partnership for Peace" concerning Macedonia should be completed. Two presentation documents ("Basic principles of Defence" and "Basic Principles of Security Policy of the Republic of Macedonia") have already been sent to Brussels, as an advance element of the future specific programs from the "Partnership for Peace" set. In any case, although Macedonia as the 27th member has joined the NATO project, Skopje hopes that it will also sign the so-called "individual program" as the 16th partner, because this means more than the so-called "general program". Within the ruling hierarchy, there is also a large number of those who believe this is to be the most powerful argument against the future challenges which Macedonia will undoubtedly be faced with in the future.

VERA GEORGIEVSKA