AGREEMENT WITH DILEMMAS

AIM, Zagreb, November 15, 1995 Mothers from Vukovar are protesting in front of the Presidential Mansion, embittered because of the agreement on Eastern Slavonia. They speak about a feeling of being cheated and betrayed: the document which is proclaimed to be the beginning of the end of the war offers no answer to the only question they are interested in - they are in mourning for four years and for four years they are hoping to go out of it. Where are those who have disappeared from Vukovar - the agreement does nor answer this question, nor are there any indications that it will. The Croat Party of Right (HSP) also sharply protests against the agreement, marking it as "unacceptable and harmful for vital interests of the Croat nation". The Rightists claim that "dazzling military victories of the Croat Army have proved as the only and right way to resolve problems of occupied territories", and that the agreement will open the road for the return of the Serbs to Croatia. They say: it will enable "the Serbs to start crawling all over Croatia".

Therefore, those who were wrapped in black in Eastern Slavonia and those who politically parade in black are raising their voices against the agreement on Eastern Slavonia which was arranged by Tudjman and Milosevic. Those who have lost everything in Vukovar and those who wish to make political points on the issue of Vukovar. The mothers from Vukovar are a symbol of refugees who have dreamed about the return to Eastern Slavonia differently and of those who were promised a different return. The HSP as a satellite of the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ), actually expresses the opinion of the extremist faction of the ruling party.

The most ardent spokesmen in favour of the Agreement are the authorities and the representatives of the Serbs. The official Zagreb issues very optimistic statements, it speaks about a victory of its peace policy. News have come from Dayton that President Tudjman is also satisfied. Hrvoje Sarinic who signed the Agreement for the Croat party stresses that its implementation means rounding the state territory of Croatia, and that now doors are open to total normalization of Croat-Serb relations, and even to mutual recognition of Croatia and Serbia. He claims that right after international temporary administration is established in Eastern Slavonia, the entire system of state institutions of Croatia, such as the post office and railway, will enter this region. He also says that among other, Croat police will guard the border with Yugoslavia. Neither the former not the latter stands in the published agreement, but Sarinic acts as if he knows better.

The Serb National and the Independent Serb Party are equally enthusiatic about the Agreement. Veselin Pejnovic emphasizes that the "imposed agreement is a good precondition for a return of the state of Croatia into a civic environment". It is believed that the same pattern of the right to return of all displaced persons should be applied on the entire territory of Croatia, including Western Slavonia and Krajina. Otherwise, "the agreement will grant amnesty to policies of ethnic cleansing we have all participated in". Observing that the Agreement lacks a part on punishing war criminals, Pejnovic draws a conclusion that "noone can offer milk and honey" to the citizens of Baranja, Eastern Slavonia and Western Srem, and he calls for "joint struggle for joint normal life". Milorad Pupovac says that "a significant if not the final step was made towards political resolution" of the status of disputable regions. He also speaks about peace, creation of preconditions for peace in Bosnia & Herzegovina, and about a step towards "normalization of all relations between Zagreb and Belgrade, all the way to their mutual recognition".

Between these two curious coalitions - the one formed of mothers from Vukovar and the extremists who are against it, and the other consisting of representatives of Croat authorities and leaders of Serb parties who are in favour of the latest Agreement - a majority of sceptics lies. They more or less welcome the agreement, but warn against its understatements and vagueness and doubt its reach. They consider peaceful return of Eastern Slavonia better than war, but they note that a peaceful solution implies a compromise, and any compromise is difficult and painful. They claim that optimism of the authorities is without foundation. Stressing that expectations of the Croat public are not met, Drazen Budisa, the leader of the Liberals, says that it is not an agreement on reintegration, but on placing Eastern Slavonia under international protection. Ivica Racan, President of Social Democrats, does not understand euphoria of the official Croatia. He claims that there is a lot of unknown qauntities and open questions in it, primarily the question whether it will be implemented at all and what its real consequences will be. Noting that the Croats were the majority population in Eastern Slavonia before the war, Racan expresses his doubt that ethnic structure might radically be changed. Zlatko Tomcic the first man of the Peasants' Party, also warns against a probable change of demographic picture. Claiming that Croatia is a step closer to rounding off its state territory, he also stresses the fact that implementation mechanisms have not been defined and draws the conclusion that the agreement "implies a possibility of a complete change of the demographic structure".

It seems that the struggle for Eastern Slavonia is still ahead, but with different means this time. According to the assessments presented by Sarinic, there are about a hundred thousand Serbs who have the right to remain there pursuant to the agreement. They are domiciled Serbs who have come from Western Slavonia and Krajina. All those who have come to the region, and prior to that had had permanent residence in Croatia, have the right to remain. Croat sources claim that Croat Serbs will be offered to choose if they wish to remain in Eastern Slavonia or go back where they had once lived. Zagreb also expects that a large portion of the Serbs who do not wish to remain "under Croat rule" will leave during the transition period. The question one could put here is whether their authorities will allow it, though.

Trasitional administration is expected to create conditions for the return of banished persons and refugees. All those who have left - have the right to return. Adalbert Rebic, director of the state Office for Refugees, claims that 80 thosand refugees may come back. Sarinic claims that in two years, when the transitional period expires, elections will be scheduled pursuant to Croat laws and that there can be no autonomy or singularity of this region. Even if that should be the case, it is certain that those who will be in the majority will possess Eastern Slavonia. American Ambassador Peter Galbrith emphasizes that this part of the country was always multiethnic and that is what it will be like in the future. The Croats stress that the Croats were dominant. Now it is purely Serb. Thanks to ethnic cleansing of the Croat population, but also thanks to the policy which believed that it was good and smart not to have any Serbs in Western Slavonia and Krajina. This fact offers an easy conclusion that Croat politics did not count on peaceful reintegration of its Eastern part. Should the Agreement be implemented, it might insist on the opposite process - that the Serbs from Eastern Slavonia be "evenly distributed".

In any case, now they will strive to return there as many Croats as possible. This will be quite difficult. For two reasons. In order to make that possible, the Serbs who are now living in their houses would have to return to their respective homes. If they still exist. What can one do with those whose homes were destroyed in the post-"Storm" cataclysm? On the other hand, return of the Croats to Western Slavonia and Krajina was not too successful either. According to certain investigations, half of the banished persons do not wish to return. If they will be forced to live under international protection - there will be even less. Zagreb will have to think of a way to animate them. So far, it applied blackmail, threatening that it would deprive those who refuse to return of their status of refugees.

If banished Croats can return, and the Serbs who have come from Western Slavonia and Krajina can stay, the eastern part of Croatia could avoid the destiny of becoming a wasteland. The only one among all liberated areas. It may even become overpopulated. Naturally, if the fundamental agreement on Baranja, Eastern Slavonia and Western Slavonia will be implemeneted at all.

JELENA LOVRIC