IT IS EASIER TO BREATHE

AIM, Zagreb, November 1, 1995

Beforing leaving to the USA, to the peace summit in Ohio, the President of Croatia badly flew at his subordinates. Deeply dissatisfied with the results of the elections, he slapped in their face that he had done his best for an election victory, but that they were not up to the task. Although this is kept away from the public, Presidential Quarters were thundering because of the election "moment of truth".

On Sunday elections for the Croat Assembly, Tudjman's Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) won again, but this victory is not as brilliant as it had been announced. There was no triumph. According to unofficial data, 45 per cent that the HDZ has won are far from the desired two-third majority. The opposition was not levelled to the ground as Tudjman had announced. Despite the thundering election mega-campaign which even the state and the army were involved in, as well as entertainers and sportsmen, the President of the state and almost all the media. And this is the first great surprise of the elections for the Croat Assembly.

What the HDZ did win, though, is sufficient for a strong domination. Namely, a large number of seats will be donated to the HDZ by election engineering. Namely, thanks to the election law, votes won by the parties which failed to exceed the election threshold, change into votes for those who had ranked the highest. They contribute to the victory of the one which already has the most. A high percentage of election abstentions also worked in favour of the HDZ. The crown of this election bargaining are the lists for diaspora, that is for the people from Herzegovina who have hurried to vote in favour of their representatives in, as it was claimed, the all-Croat Assembly. Although international observers consider that part of the elections which enable the Croats from Bosnia & Herzegovina to vote and be voted for the Croat Assembly quite scandalous, and the opposition and most of the public claim that this was a silent annexation of Herzegovina, Tudjman refuses to be disturbed. In this way he ensured in advance ten per cent of the seats in the Assembly. But, despite everything, his ambitions to increase domination in the Assembly will not come true. It seems that globally, relation of powers there remains as it used to be.

The fact that, despite everything that the HDZ has lately booked on its account - from Operations Flash and Storm, buying of social peace, harnessing entertainers and sportsmen in its service, taking hold of all institutions of the civil society, transforming into a state party ... - it did not win a larger number of votes, speaks in favour of the thesis that its star is declining. It might have even been defeated, had a part of the opposition been more serious and sensible, had there been no dispersion of votes and mutual competition.

The opposition nevertheless has reason to celebrate. It gained a specific advantage. It might not materialize in a greater number of seats in the parliament, but for the first time there is the feeling that it is not fighting for a lost cause. Although judging by everything, the global relation of forces in the future Assembly will in the end turn out to be very similar to the former one, the opposition made a few surprising successes.

The greatest of them all is the election coalition of the Croat Peasants' Party, the Istrian Democratic Assembly and the Croat National Party which - according to the available data - has won almost twenty per cent of the votes. At the top of their list is a tribune, peasant Josip Pankretic, with the election slogan: "For a spotless reputation" which sounds exceptionally good in present corrupt Croatia. It seems, however, that the very risky decision on association with the Istrians paid off best to the Peasants. The decision was risky because the state media, ordered by politics, imposed an odium against the Istrians as suspicious Croats, so it could have turned the traditional electorate of the Peasants' Party away from them. Especially because voices were immediately heard from the ranks of the ruling party accusing the Peasants that they have linked their "undoubtfully Croat party with the irredentists".

It turned out that the HDZ had all reason to yell. The Croat Peasants Party has not lost its voters, but won new ones. It linked its almost a century old tradition with a modern regional party. An impression was created in the public that in this way "Istria has returned to its mother land". Besides, they introduced some life into the slow-motion opposition scene. Commotion around them brought them into the focus of public interest, and maybe the effect of "the more slander and lies..." contributed to it. In any case, their coalition which will continue close cooperation after the elections, with its eletion performance, its campaign and after all with its success, is a new qaulity on the party scene of Croatia.

Just as the peasants had made a good move with the coalition, the Liberals had made a great mistake with the decision to appear on their own in the elections. So far the most powerful opposition party has won about 11 per cent of the votes, which is two times less than previously. The former informal leader of the opposition, Liberal Drazen Budisa, has a lot of reasons to analyze where he had made a mistake. The fact that former votes of the Liberals have, it seems, all gone to the Peasants, shows that there are two quite well clearly discernable corpuses - one which votes for the HDZ (the number of voters of the HDZ constantly varies around 45 per cent), and the other which gives its votes to the opposition. But, it seems that this second corpus still fluctuates searching - from one to the other elelctions, changing the party of its preference, looking for the one it will firmly stick to. Once, at the first elections, it voted for the Communists, in the second for the Liberals, now for the Peasants, and again largely for the ex-Communists again.

The return of the party of Ivica Racan, of the former Communists, now Social Democrats, is the third great surprise of this year's elections. It was claimed that they would not even enter the Assembly, but their rating is evidently rising since they got almost nine per cent of the votes. Their success is especially spectacular in Zagreb. Zagreb was the only one in the country which voted for its city and regional assembly too, because the HDZ had lost it in recent party transfers. Trying to maintain power, it imposed its fusion with the surrounding municipalities. However, that was of no help either. The HDZ got about 36 per cent of the votes in Zagreb, the Social Democrats who moved to the top of the list of the opposition parties, half that much, but if they unite with the Liberals or the Peasants - the HDZ will lose, as its leaders like to say, the capital city of all Croats. United opposition in Zagreb could rule with a two-third majority!

If no association occurred, the HDZ announced that it wished to maintain the mayor of Zagreb by all means, and now it is publicly wooing the Social Democrats. Contrary to the Liberals and the Peasants who publicly declare that they would not go into a coalition with the HDZ, Racan never says anything of the kind, but indeed, keeps that door open too. Does he enjoy the role of a highly marrigeable girl raising its rating in this way among the opposition partners, or rivals, or whether a red-black coalition will be after all formed in Zagred, still remains to be seen.

In any case, the greatest surprise and the greatest success of these elections is the victory of the opposition in the big cities. Apart from Zagreb, which was always believed to have been a fort of the ruling HDZ, and now has passed into the hands of the opposition, the opposition parties managed to win back Rijeka which was recently taken over by the HDZ through sillful party bargaining, half of Split, and they are in the lead in some other cities. They were also in the lead in Dubrovnik and Zadar, and then suddenly the HDZ gained a dubious advantage.

All in all, although Tudjman's Croat Democratic Community won another election victory, it is easier to breathe in Zagreb nowadays.

JELENA LOVRIC