CHANGE OF SCENERY ON THE POLITICAL SCENE OF SERBIA

Straying of Serb Opposition

No matter what he might get in the negotiating process in Ohio, Milosevic will quite certainly return to Belgrade as a winner. State media will see to it, being still one of his major instruments of power.

AIM, Belgrade, October 22, 1995

Those who are well informed (and it seems they are few) about developments in the office of the Serb President, recently claimed that Slobodan Milosevic had postponed resolving of some long-smouldering economic disputes between the Republican Government and the Governor of the National Bank of Yugoslavia, by saying: "We will resolve that after Holbrook leaves Belgrade."

After his fifteenth meeting with the President of Serbia, the American negotiator Richard Holbrook did leave Belgrade in the middle of last week, ssending word that he would not come back to the Balkans for at least a few weeks. This, however, does not mean that the recent promise given in Milosevic's office is still valid. Namely, those who have waited for Holbrook to leave, will now have to wait "for Milosevic to come back from Ohio". One could hardly expect anything crucial to happen on the political scene of Serbia before that date. And after Ohio, completely new scenery will be set on this scene. It should be noted, though, that the script writer, the director and the star of the show will remain the same (Slobodan Milosevic, of course), but all things considered, the repertoire will be quite changed and a completely new play will be staged.

It seems that leaders of most of the Serb opposition parties also anticipate something of the kind. Some ten days before Milosevic's departure to Ohio, where the President of Serbia will be staying in an American military base called Right-Peterson together with the President of Croatia Franjo Tudjman and the President of B&H Alija Izetbegovic (until they sign any peace agreement), the Serb opposition has generally decided to wait in silence. In such an atmosphere of anticipation, majority of opposition leaders held their peace even after news came that the authorities represented by Alija Izetbegovic might soon open their diplomatic office in Belgrade, which would be the first step towards Yugoslav recognition of Bosnia & Herzegovina. Just a while ago, such news would have been a reason for accusing Milosevic of "new treachery" of Serb national interests.

Zirinovski - the best Russian export product

The only one to react publicly this time was Vojislav Seselj who claimed that the regime in Belgrade has definitely written off "Republic of Srpska" and decided to support the "Muslim party". "When we overthrow Milosevic's regime, we will close Izetbegovic's office in Belgrade", Seselj promised mentioning treason again and Milosevic's dancing "by American dictation".

Zoran Djindjic and Vojislav Kostunica, leaders of two parties which are, along with Seselj's Radicals, according to some criteria classified in the "national block", did not even give a statement on the occasion. The former was somewhere in Germany at the time, and the latter seemed tired of repeating the same old story. Indeed, the last time they both could be heard was in the beginning of October when they both signed a Declaration for Salvation of the People and Fatherland in the name of their parties. Among other, in the Declaration, they called for lifting of the blockade on the Drina, urgent union of all Serb countries, and scheduling elections for a constitutional assembly. They also demanded that presentation of the destruction and banishment of the Serb people as an alleged victory of the Serb President's peace policy stops. This too passed in complete silence, since majority of the firmly controlled media simply failed to mention this Declaration.

Nothing much changed when, after Holbrook's departure, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, Vladimir Zirinovski appeared in Belgrade. He is unoffcially known as the "best Russian export product" (as recently labelled by a Russian official who claimed that Russian authorities were extremely fond of Zirinovski's journeys abroad: "When they see and hear him abroad, they always say - 'if he is the alternative to the existing regime, then we must support and help Yeltsin'"). Zirinovski arrived in Belgrade at the invitation of teh Serb Radicals and he was announced as the main orator at a big rally scheduled for Friday, October 20.

There was no rally, because the authorities banned it, so Vojislav Seselj and his guest from Russia accompanied by several thousand supporters and at least a few hundred policemen (some in uniforms, some in civilian clothes) just went for a walk around Belgrade. Their short addresses to the masses gathered around the balcony of the seat of the Serb Radical Party in the centre of Belgrade left the impression of "moistened matches". Namely, it could all be brought down to pledging allegiance to the Orthodox brotherhood and unity. There was not a trace of "secret Russian weapons" Zirinovski used to promise Belgrade and Pale. Zirinovski seemed to have forgotten to bring the weapons he had promised, and noone remembered even to ask him about it. The next day, in Novi Sad, Seselj and Zirinovski were not even allowed to take a walk around the city. The police closed all passages, so a conflict between the gathered citizens and strong police forces was within a hair's breadth.

Prevented from making speeches and taking a walk around the city, Seselj decided to spite Milosevic after all. He took his guest to Zvornik, to the already famous Motel "Vidikovac", where they met with Radovan Karadzic and Momcilo Krajisnik. But, with this move he harmed Karadzic more than anyone. It is, of course, hard to believe that Seselj did not take this opportunity to call the leadership of the Bosnian Serbs to deprive Miloevic of the right to continue to represent them in peace negotiations. It is even harder to believe that they have taken this piece of advice seriously. Ten days before the journey to Ohio, it is too late for such a desperate move. The agreement on joint negotiating appearance of Belgrade and Pale includes provisions which completely eliminate the possibility of any undermining from Pale, and Milosevic was given a big enough manoeuvring space to, sooner or later, get rid of all those who are not ready to go in the direction indicated by his forefinger.

New shuffling of cards

With the exception of the Serb Radical Party and its leader Dr Vojislav Seselj, all the others on the political scene of Serbia seem to be expecting a completely new shuffling of cards after the peace negotiations in the USA which are beginning on the last day of October. Some analysts claim that after the change of luck in the battlefields in Bosnia, the President of Serbia is leaving to the USA with a considerably weakened negotiating position and low hopes that he will preserve the 49 per cent of the territories which were offered to the Bosnian Serbs a long time ago. One could also hear in the past few days that the only possible platform for Milosevic in Ohio is to agree to radical concessions in order to save what little can still be saved. All the analyses, however, anticipate one significant fact: whatever he may get in the end of the negotiating process, Milosevic will quite certainly return to Belgrade as a winner. The state media will see to it, which are still one of his main instruments of power.

The absurdity of the whole situation lies in the fact that little is known about the contents of the bag President Milosevic will be taking to Ohio, but one can quite precisely anticipate what he will bring back from there. Whatever might happen there, Belgrade will for days talk about the "triumph of Serb peace-loving policy", about how much more was obtained in Ohio than anyone could have even imagined. Especially since Karadzic and his supporters had "ruined everything" and missed the opportunity to work out a "just peace" agreement a long time ago.

Which political slogans will be "fashionable" in Serbia this autumn and winter can also be anticipated from the messages repeated at various celebrations occasioned by reception of young Socialists into the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS). Milosevic is expected to bring the end of the war from the USA, a just peace which means stability in the Balkans and, primarily, to free the FR of Yugoslavia of the sanctions imposed on it. After that, according to SPS activists, it is only logical, economic revival and general prosperity of the country will follow. And the President of Serbia, as the man who will have saved the country of the sanctions and the war, according to the same logic, will be "married" to Serb history again. All this could mean that the national tall stories launched by the Serb regime several years ago in order to mobilise and homogenize masses, have been dropped from the list of priority topics which win votes in the elections. Or at least, that they will, like dirt, be shoved under the carpet until a new opportunity arises.

Results of a recent public opinion poll organized by the Belgrade Institute of Political Studies indicate something of the kind. Research workers of the Institute tried to establish what is happening among the potential voters at the moment of the latest radical change of course of the official policy. Subjects were offered eight political objectives and they were requested to choose the most significant one. The Objective defined as "peace in the country and the region" was undoubtedly given top prirority. Namely, 36.5 per cent of the subjects chose this answer. A little over 22 per cent preferred to have "all Serbs living in a single state", and 12.9 per cent chose "work, order and discipline". Almost the same number of subjects put "joining Europe" at the top of the list of priorities.

Based on these results, Dr Srbobran Brankovic of the Institute for Political Studies draws a conclusion that people are completely confused concerning choice of a political objective. The fact that surprised even the researchers was that until recently detested Europe pushed its way up so high in the list of priorities. "It seems that the refrain about Europe will become the hit of the season again, and the political public is obediently showing inclination for the taste launched from the screens of state television... One could say that odes to Serbdom are not fashionable any more, since it is still of top priority only for a little over one fifth of the citizens", Dr Brankovic points out in a recent analysis of this poll.

Great expectations

Even if the results of the poll made by this quite respectable Belgrade Institute were essentially contrary to the reality, one would have difficulties in trying to deny the fact that in the next weeks and months plastic public opinion in Serbia, which is exceptionally inclined to accept whatever offered to it as the only and real truth about anything that happens, will definitely be remodelled again. It remains to be seen however, how those who were main actors so far will manage on the new stage with the new scenery.

The so-called "national block" is waiting to see what will peace signed by Slobodan Milosevic be like, and then make up its mind whether it is sensible to use the same trump car, that is, whether it is possible to make a proper suit out of the remaining nationalistic remnants.

Draskovic's Serb Revival Movement (SPO) is also waiting to see how their flirtation concerning joining the new Serb Government will end. The story about it is already more than a month old, and it has become difficult to wait any longer, so repeated denials and allegations of the leadership of SPO have started to arrive that this was all just idle gossip, and not their true wish to get closer to the authorities. Whatever may be the outcome of this coquetry, it will be registered that the once most robust Serb opposition party which used to wrestle with the authorities in the streets and squares of Belgrade and which used to accuse everybody else of being collaborators with the regime, has finally learnt the true meaning of the word compromise.

In the loosest interpretations of their arrangement with the authorities, Vuk Draskovis is even mentioned as the future Serb prime minister. Draskovic himself is trying to place the whole issue on a somewhat more principled terrain and he claims that the main question is rather will Serbia join Europe or not, than - will the SPO enter the government. If Milosevic wants to become part of Europe, then the SPO will put its entire reputation at the disposal of that new European trend, the leader of this party claims. The impression one gains, though, is that the SPO demanded too much in the beginning of the negotiations.

In the meantime, the SPS considerably stabilized its position, so that the story about division of power with other parties and privatization as a condition for getting foreign loans will obviously have to wait. Maybe till spring. By that time people in the SPS will be able to assess with less difficulties what they will really have to share with others and whether, in order to remain in power, it will be enough for them to keep only their official coalition partner, New Democracy, and their unofficial partner, the Yugoslav Associated Leftists (JUL) of Mirjana Markovic, into whose promotion they have been investing extremely a lot.

For the time being, the current coalition partner of the ruling party, New Democracy is grabbing as much as it can. Especially respectable managers and owners of powerful firms, many of whom were members of Djindjic's Democratic Party until just recently. Leaders of New Democracy obviously are not the only ones who believe that time is coming when, in order to survive and be influential on the political scene of Serbia, it will be much more significant to own capital than, for example, to have a fiery national program and swearing by the Serbs across the river Drina.

Nenad Lj. Stefanovic (AIM)