AFTER GLIGOROV - UNCERTAINTY RULES MACEDONIA!

AIM, Skopje, October 10, 1995

While the President is receiving messages from citizens who wish him to get well soon and return to his statesman's duties, there are also those, anonimous ones, who express support to the assissins showering some Macedonian cities with leaflets and graffiti. Teams of physicians claim that the President is enduring surgeries well, but there are speculations that he has, nevertheless, been removed from the political scene for good, even if he survives. It seems that the preparations for the elections of a new president of the state are well under way, and names of Stojan Andov and Vasil Tupurkovski are most frequently mentioned as the possible candidates for the president. The analysts say that Andov is not acceptable for the current ruling team of young Prime Minister Branko Crvenkovski, but that he has no serious opponent in his own party who could threaten Andov and throw him out of the president's quarters where he is temporarily residing now.

While speaking to the parliamentarians on the occasion of the adoption of the Greek-Macedonian agreement, and when referring to the attempt on Kiro Gligorov's life, Prime Minister Branko Crvenkovski gave the following answer to his own question where had the planners of this loathsome act gone wrong: "Where so far enemies of this people have always gone wrong - in the assessment of their collective awareness and maturity. Namely, Kiro Gligorov is not a president who imposes his will contrary to wishes of his people, but he is a statesman of a great calibre who anticipates the pulse and aspirations of his people and who knows the best way to synthesize these aspirations by adequate political decisions. And no bomb can be of any help to them for that matter. A lot of bombs would be needed to remove two million people". While the Prime Minister was uttering these words, in Kicevo (a town in Western Macedonia inhabited by multiethnic population) and in Prilep (a town in central Macedonia inhabited mostly by Macedonian population) leaflets were distributed and graffiti written denying the words of the young Prime Minister. "Traitors, your end is approaching", "Death to Kiro Gligorov", "Traitor Gligorov is dead", "VMRO will not give up the flag", "Where are you, Macedonians" and other messages with similar contents are, after all, probably written by some of those same two million of reliable inhabitants of Macedonia the Prime Minister is referring to. Obviously, it is not quite true that this one bomb did not "sound" loud enough, nor is it true that the number of those who looked forward to its detonation is insignificant. After all, everyone was aware of this much before the attempt on Gligorov's life, and the "car-bomb" might have just contributed to a sudden "landing" of all those who had thought that the battle for a stable and independent Macedonia was irrevocably won a long time ago. Noone knows for sure how many people are already putting the sign which reads "In memoriam" underneath the picture of their President who, as the physicians claim, is successfully enduring frequent surgeries, or how many are saying "Traitor Gligovor is dead", manifesting in this way not only their attitude towrads the President himself, but also their stance towards his policy. Nor does anyone know whether the photo-robot made by German experts will be of any help in locating one of the assissins who is said to have bought an "Ami 8" nine days before the attempt, which was filled with explosives and activated in broad daylight in the street through which the President passed every day on his way to the office.

And while foreign and local physicians are struggling to save the seriously wounded Gligorov, almost everyone agrees that even if the President survives, he has been thrown out of the political scene for good. This is a good enough reason to trigger off speculations about the future President of Macedonia. Names which are most frequently mentioned are that of Stojan Andov (the current Chairman of the Assembly of Macedonia and, pursuant to the Constitution, the temporary President of the state) and Vasil Tupurkovski (member of the last former Presidency of former Yugoslavia). If one believed rumours, one could reach the conclusion that several other people who consider themselves worthy substitutes for Gligorov, have aleady begun preparations to start in the race for the office of the President, but if one wished to be realistic, one would know that only Andov and Tupurkovski can count on major support of the citizens. This does not mean that there may not be surprises made by opposition parties VMRO-DPMNE and the Democtratic Party. They say that it will be very difficult for anyone to remove the temporarily inaugurated Andov from the "Presidential throne", who is also the leader of the Liberal Party also called the "Party of Managers". There is no doubt that the former ambassador of former Yugoslavia in Iraq and the current politician who is said to have made a big fortune at the time of "privatization" and that he is surrounded by wealthy businessmen, will run for president. While it is claimed with certainty that Andov will run for president, the only thing that is stressed concerning Vasil Tupurkovski, even by rumours is restraint. He would actually be the only true opponent to the "greedy" Andov, and according to the assessments of some analysts, maybe even the best man for Macedonia at this moment. Advantages attributed to Tupurkovski as opposed to the "fickle" Andov are founded on the confidence ordinary citizens have in him, because at the time of dissolution of Yugoslavia he was present wherever the citizens called him to be, contrary to the majority of others who avoided such "close" contacts with the citizens who demanded their authorities to meet them. It is not insignificant either that he has high rating among non-Macedonian inhabitants, especially among the Albanians who see him as a politician with realistic ideas and with no burden of nationalism. Even until now, he was believed to be the only one who could have threatened even Gligorov himself, and rumour goes that his "removal" to the USA (where he lived for a long time after Macedonia had become independent) was actually "extorted". Why he is "dangerous" for the current ruling team is seen when after his recent interview in which he mentioned the need for a "historic agreement" between the Macedonians and the Albanians, he was attacked by three ministers on TV. Maybe they would not have been so brisk had they known what would happen - the attempt on Gligorov's life. For a simple reason that it is believed that Stojan Andov is the least convenient for the "boys" in the Government from the Social Democratic Party, as well as Prime Minister Branko Crvenkovski himself. Such speculations are founded on the fact that republican deputies from the Liberal Party who are headed by Stojan Andov, did not vote in favour of Crvenskovski's Government (unsatisfied with the distribution of portfolios), but also due to frequent flirtations of this party with the oppositionist VMRO-DPMNE which some people now discreetly point their fingers at in connection with the attempt on Gligorov's life.

Will Andov and Tupurkovski be the only candidates at the possible presidential elections, is a question that cannot be answered in the affirmative yet. Especially when there are speculations that Branko Crvenskovski, Prime Minister and the leader of the most powerful Macedonian political party at the moment - the Social Democratic Alliance is pressured by a few of his party colleagues who have ambitions to try their luck at presidential elections. Most frequently names of the current Minister of defence, Hansinski, and that of Vice-Chairman of the republican parliament, Tito Petkovski, are mentioned in this context.

Therefore, uncertainty which accompanied survival of Macedonia ever since the days of proclamation of independence and its secession from former Yugoslavia, has just increased after the attempt on Kiro Gligorov's life. While the President is receiving numerous telegrams wishing him to get well soon, there are also those who express support to the assassins in numerous leaflets and graffiti in Prilep and Kicevo. This is all happening at the moment when Macedonia is rounding off its international recognition by reception in the community of European states and signing of a provisional agreement with Greece. Perhaps these are the facts that introduced nervousness among those who cannot reconcile themselves with the fact that a new state is emerging in this part of the Balkans, so they have planned the assassination in a hurry. Just to show that not quite everything has been done yet. Or to prove once again the long known fact that in the Balkans one can never know when evil times are coming: when things are getting better or when the situation appears hopeless.

KIM MEHMETI