THE REMAINDER OF THE REMAINDER

AIM, Belgrade, September 25, 1995

Eastern Slavonia

Are Eastern Slavonia, Baranja and Western Srem a remainder of the remainder of Krajina or a part of Serbia?

President of the Coordinating Committee of Slavonia, Baranja and Western Srem, Goran Hadzic, announces elections for the new assembly, government and president as "continuation of continuity" of Krajina. Simultaneously, a Council of the Baranja and Srem region was established (September 5) headed by the Mayor of Vukovar, Slavko Dokmanovic. Both bodies present themselves as the supreme military and civilian authorities in the region. Hadzic assesses that establishment of the Council is a mistake: that its members stress that this region has always been a part of Serbia, indirectly withdrawing a claim on Western Slavonia and other parts of Krajina...

Is this a matter of some serious split among formerly unanimous Eastern-Slavonian Serb leaders? If it is, it is very interesting. Namely, it is a well-known fact that decision-making takes place neither in Erdut nor in Beli Manastir, but in Belgrade where local leaders go to be instructed about them. Does Hadzic's statement mean that certain disagreement has emerged in Belgrade concerning the future of the territory, or simply clear instructions failed to arrive?

In the field, the split between Hadzic's Coordinating Committee and Dokmanovic's Council is of a much greater significance than the mere struggle for power between these two. The most important issue here - after arranging the ceasefire, withdrawal of troops and artillery - is to nominate delegates for political negotiations on the future status. Or more precisely: to establish what they may agree to and what obligations they can take.

Dokmanovic's Council declared itself to be the delegation in negotiations. Its head is Milan Milovanovic, assistant minister of defence of "Krajina". Before he became the chief negotiator, he had commented for Vecernje novosti (August 25) that the plan to have Eastern Slavonia and Baranja protected by the international community in the next five years "could be a moderate solution between two extremes" - the first being that this region be "annexed by Croatia, and the other that it be annexed by Serbia". Milovanovic emphasized that the people must declare their will at a referendum concerning it, probably aware that something like that was prescribed already by the Z-4 plan, which also read that after this time expired, it would directly come under jurisdiction of the Republic of Croatia. The impression is, nevertheless, that Milovanovic is more cooperative than Hadzic.

Namely, in a legendary Radio Kragujevac program called "The Stamp of Time" (September 17), Hadzic declared that "during the latest talks with Co-Chairman of the Peace Conference on Former Yugoslavia, Torvald Stoltenberg and British diplomat Hewitt, our party categorically rejected the possibility of peaceful reintegration of Eastern Slavonia, Baranja and Western Srem into Croatia". He did not mention any international protectorate, but advocated establishment of peace "which would last the following three to five years, after which the people would declare their will about the future status in a referendum". Therefore, no changes in the foreseeable future, resembling the recipe prescribed by the former prime minister of "Krajina", Borislav Mikelic: partial demilitarization and limited economic connections. UN Secretary General Special Envoy, Yasushi Akashi, says that Eastern-Slavonian Serbs have agreed to implementation of certain agreements on ceasefire and economic cooperation.

What is the sense of these to a certain extent opposite stances, that of Hadzic and Milovanovic? After Western-Slavonian action "Flash" and Krajina action "Storm", they both take extremely seriously the threats of Croat President Dr Franjo Tudjman that, should unconditional peaceful reintegration fail to take place, it would be carried out by "other means". Noone seriously relies on the possibility of an intervention of the Army of Yugoslavia (VJ) which might jeopardize such a course of developments. The force of Serb arms inspires even less confidence at the height of the Croat-Muslim offensive in B&H. Therefore, it seems that something else is the gist of the matter.

The American peace initiative prescribes an integral solution for almost all crisis-stricken areas in former Yugoslavia, Eastern Slavonia inclusive. It is an illusion to believe that it could be excluded from Croatia, so that the difference between Hadzic's and Milovanovic's views reflects, in fact, two approaches to what one could hope for within the scope of this initiative.

The first seems to tend to have the problem of the Serbs who have fled from Croatia resolved through the problem of Eastern Slavonia; their return, regulation of their future status and such like. Should any progress occur in this direction, Hadzic would automatically become the Serb leader in Croatia. In this context, but also fulfilling the requirements of Zagreb for initiation of negotiations, he banned "Krajina" government of Dr Milan Babic which is in Belgrade from access to Eastern Slavonia. That was not too difficult to do. It is a notorious fact by now that the Serb regime has proclaimed these officials guilty of the destiny of "Krajina", and they have given up all hope. At its last session (September 9), Dr Babic's government concluded that Hadzic's banishment and acceptance of negotiations meant direct takeover of its "obligations and responsibilities". What it will do next, it will decide after consultations with "scientific and political authorities of the Serb nation".

On the other hand, the Council of Baranja and Srem region seems to believe that it is better to have anything than nothing at all. In other words: concessions they could get from Croatia if they did not bother it with the deceased Krajina any more could be much greater than those they could get if they linked their destiny to the problem of other Serbs in Croatia. They probably also believe that such an attitude might meet with benevolence of Belgrade. The matter at stake here is control of the right bank of the river Danube, and it could also fit into ethnic engineering of both the Serb and the Croat regime. The first would colonize Kosovo with the people who have fled from Krajina, and the latter would be free to colonize Krajina with whoever it pleases.

What is the outcome? Hadzic swears that he is "completely following in the steps of peace-making policy of Slobodan Milosevic and the authorities in Belgrade". Dokmanovic publicizes a statement saying that the entire Serbia backs the Serbs in Eastern Slavonia, and that each and every shell shot at its territory is in fact shot at Serbia. Croatia, again, insists on a comprehensive solution by the end of the mandate of the UN peace forces which expires in November. There is not much time left. Although Zagreb, which is busy with the offensive in B&H, clims that the peaceful solution in Eastern Slavonia has practically been accomplished

• it is all quite uncertain. Two things are certain, though: the true and real power in the region is held by Zeljko Raznatovic Arkan and his formations; and the other - although exposed as competent negotiators, nothing really depends on Hadzic, Dokmanovic and Milovanovic. What Milosevic manages to procure for them is all they can get. If that is unacceptable for them, and if they prove to be self-willed and obstinate, it will mark disappearance of Serbs from this part of Croatia, too.

Philip Schwarm