DEFENCE AND THE LAST DAYS

Muslim-Croat Offensive

AIM, Belgrade, September 16, 1995

President of the Republic of B&H Alija Izetbegovic promised that his units would not use NATO air strikes against the Bosnian Serbs in Sarajevo exclusion zone. The promise is respected. Bosnian Prime Minister Haris Silajdzic stressed that this did not refer to other fronts, and soon it became clear what he had in mind. Combined Mustim-Croat troops as of Tuesday September 12, conquered Donji Vakuf, Sipovo, Jajce, Drvar, Bosanski Petrovac...

Spokesman of the United Nations in Sarajevo, Chris Vernon, said: "Considering that Eastern Bosnia is in the focus of NATO airstrikes, I don't think there is any connection between the two" (conquering and airstrikes). However, he admitted that the possibility existed that the "chain of command and control of the Bosnian Serbs" was threatened by airstrikes. In a later statement, Vernon added that NATO attacks against Serb military installations and communications "jeopardized the possibility of control in the region and prevented bringing in logistic supplies and enforcements through the corridor in the Sava river valley".

The Muslim-Croat offensive is not subsiding yet. The latest news is that the Army of B&H, having taken Vozuca, advances towards Doboj. At the same time, Radio Sarajevo informs that the Fifth Corps from Bihac joined the troops of Croat Army (HV) and those of the Croat Defence Council (HVO) on the saddle Ostrelj between Drvar and Bosanski Petrovac. There are armed conflicts near Kljuc and Mrkonjic Grad, too.

The commander of the Seventh Corps of the Army of B&H general Mehmet Alagic says that the objective of the offensive is "troops review of the units of the Army of B&H in Banja Luka".

Information Darkness

Noone knows for sure what is the actiual situation on the territory controlled by Bosnian Serbs. All major communication facilities of theirs have been destroyed: Stolice on mount Majevica, Trovrh near Gorazde, Kozara... The eastern, western and the central region of the by now semi-recognized "Republic of Srpska" (RS) have been left both without interconnections and connections with the rest of the world. The only thing one can learn is that the rumours about treason, "selling out", secret agreements and conspiracies have gotten out of hand. Although Dr Radovan Karadzic had tried to deny the rumours claiming that there had been no agreements concerning regions stricken by the offensive, it appears that he too has started to resort to them. Recently he said: "Uniformed persons are spreading defeatism and telling the people to pack and flee. We will form a committee to look One can only imagine what the local leaders are saying now that they are forced to face the problems caused by bombing and advances of Muslim and Croat forces. The population in communication darkness is grieved the most by cut telephone lines: after each NATO bombing civilian victims are reported (mostly by radio) - yet it is impossible to get in contact with the place hit by the bombs and check whether relatives and friends are alive and unharmed.

Apart from that, the region of Banja Luka, threatened by the offensive, has also fallen into information darkness. Local TV, after transmitters were destroyed, can hardly be watched even in the city. It is, therefore, no wonder that the sketch of division of Bosnia drawn by Dr Franjo Tudjman at a banquet menu in London at the celebration of the anniversary of the victory over Nazism according to which Bosnian Krajina would become part of Croatia - has started circling Banja Luka like an apparition. In certain more optimistic and cynical forecasts, prospects of this city are seen as a "UN protected zone".

Many tend to recognize the "Krajina syndrome" in the developments. An expert who had fled from Krajina was offered a job and a flat in Banja Luka. "Alright", he answered "I will give an answer to your offer in a month when I find out in whose hands Banja Luka will end up."

People's Army

Military authorities of the Bosnian Serbs admitted that they had lost Jajce, as stated, "after conflicts in defence of the direction leading from Sipovo towards this town", and that "the units are consolidated and preparing to take the initiative at this part of the front". It seems that later the loss of Drvar was also admitted and that the Croat troops are controlling most of the road leading from Jajce to Mrkonjic Grad and on to Bosanski Petrovac.

One comes to know that Serb soldiers are roaming through forests trying to reach their stable lines of defence. One also learns that a considerable number of them is surrounded in Donji Vakuf. It is further said that Serb units have not offered significant resistance, that they have been withdrawing, and that the killed are counted by tens - not hundreds. The latter piece of news is selling well in Belgrade, and the regime media either do not report about the Croat-Muslim offensive at all or quite obviously diminish its scope; there is certainly not a trace of publicity the collapse of Krajina was given.

Loss of territories is interpreted to the Serb public in two ways. The first is that general Ratko Mladic is wisely shortening the line of contact in unfavourable current conditions sacrificing the scarcely populated regions; the other is that these are inevitable concessions dictated by a (political) act of God. Both interpretations start from the fact that it was all caused by NATO air strikes. But, practically noone expresses unreserved faith in Serb arms in B&H any more.

Independent military experts in Belgrade point out that after Bosanski Petrovac was taken and the Army of B&H joined Croat troops (Bihac-Bugojno), the former "AVNOJ highway" is reopened connecting the Bihac pocket with the territory controlled by the Government in Sarajevo. That is why they believe it to be an illusion to expect withdrawal of Croat-Muslim forces. And further on: that they will continue to advance for that very reason. They find confirmation for this in the conflicts around Kljuc and Mrkonjic Grad which defend the access to Banja Luka. "Every nation knows best what is its army like", a Belgrade analysts says. According to the assessments of the UN High Commissioner, almost 100 thousand refugees is on its way to Banja Luka from Donji Vakuf, Bosanski Petrovac, Sipovo, Jajce, Mrkonjic Grad, Kljuc... They are all fleeing from the approaching Muslim and Croat army. These people - since there is no room for them in Banja Luka which is already overcrowded with the refugees from Krajina - are waiting on the roads in the rain and redirected towards Prijedor, Sanski Most, Kozarska Dubica. It is assessed that they are in a much worse situation than the refugees from Krajina were a month ago: they are not only much poorer (with less tractors, cars and trucks), but they cannot hope to get any significant assistance. Their presence in any significant number has not been reported in Bijeljina yet. However, answers of high officers of the Army of B&H to the question put a few months ago whether they would begin the offensive by cutting off the corridor now sounds quite ominous: "We do not want to cut off the corridor, so the Serbs will have a way for escape".

Calculations

In the midst of all this turmoil, media which belong to the regime in Belgrade (September 15) are celebrating the agreement by which President of Serbia Slobodan Milosevic forced Dr Karadzic and general Mladic to withdraw heavy armament from Sarajevo exclusion zone. They claim that the Bosnian Serbs received guarantees that the Army of B&H would not start offensive actions at this part of the battleground, and they still have armament having calibre below 100 mm (with the exception of 82 mm mortars). Experts assess that this is armour-piercing armament. It is also mentioned that withdrawal of the controversial arms has started and that NATO has suspended air strikes for 72 hours.

Not a word has been said by anyone why general Mladic has not done this earlier, but allowed NATO airplanes to destroy his military installations, communications, cause demolition of infrastrucure and civilian victims. The mentioned media also indifferently pass in silence over the fact that the agreement does not include provisions on interruption of the offensive which has almost reduced Bosnian Krajina by half. How will that offensive be stopped - there is no clear answer to that either.

What else can leaders of Bosnian Serbs count on, together with Slobodan Milosevic who has subjugated them after a year of separation?

Primarily on pressure exerted by the international community - in the first place the USA - on Zagreb and Sarajevo to interrupt their advancing. Little is known what the chances are in this respect. But, warnings are heard already that what the Muslim-Croat alliance could gain through the attack against the weakened army of Bosnian Serbs weighs more than possible sanctions of their "forces-protectors".

The Bosnian Serbs also rely on the possibility of a split in the what they believe to be an "unnatural" Muslim-Croat alliance. Opinions are heard that it is good that most of the lost towns and territories were conquered by Croat troops. Allegedly, sooner or later, the alliance will break and then the Serbs will easily defeat the Muslims and somehow reach an agreement with the Croats. It is not quite clear though why would Zagreb show any solidarity with the Serbs in B&H who are obviously the losers. It is much easier for it to satisfy its interests by cooperating with Sarajevo. It seems that even Dr Karadzic has started to realize this when he called the international community to "stop the aggression of the Republic of Croatia on purely Serb territories".

In this story, the Russians as guarantors of the survival of the Serb state in B&H are also mentioned in this story. Yet, despite the official propaganda their engagement appears to be the same as that of the leader of the Serb Radical Party (SRS) Vojislav Seselj, or that of a high official of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) Radmilo Bogdanovic.

Although there are few of those on the Serb political scene who still rely on their own forces in the struggle against the whole world (the Muslims and the Croats inclusive), there does not seem to be any readiness to face the possibility of total defeat. Bosnian Serbs still have the possibility to keep 49 per cent of the territory - although it is still questionable whether according to the Contact Group maps - but with every new day it depends less on their doing. It is also dubious to what extent Dr Karadzic, general Mladic and their men will be able to fit in this: whether saving what can still be saved of the "Republic of Srpska" will be conditioned by their departure from the political scene?

Philip Schwarm