DEMOCRACY SWEPT AWAY BY THE "STORM"

AIM, Zagreb, September 13, 1995 Only the number of mobilized soldiers - about 150 thousand of them - indicated that the Croat Army was preparing for something big, but nevertheless majority of the people were caught by surprise when, early on Friday morning August 4, a general offensive started against the "Republic of Serb Krajina". The surprise was even greater both for the world and the public at home when Knin fell after only 72 hours. Thus, with a minimum of victims, the Croat forces reestablished national sovereignty over almost one fourth of state territory or about 14 thousand square kilometres. It is amazing how Croat soldiers whose attack proceeded in as many as thirty directions and along about 100 kilometre-long frontline passed practically unhindered. Apart from rare exceptions such as parts of Banija and Kordun and surroundings of Gracac, everything went smoothly, and they entered towns without shooting a single bullet. And these towns were almost empty, because under still unclarified circumstances almost the entire Serb population had left "Krajina" and chose exodus. Assessments say that about five to six thousand Serbs have remained, primarily the elderly and those who did not manage to join the endless convoys of refugees which mostly ended up in Serbia or the "Republic of Srpska".

Even the Croat leadership itself, both the civilian and the military, could not explain how come there was no major resistance and no rockets launched at Croat cities, as Milan Martic had once threatened he would do. Although the full background of action "Storm" is still a mystery, one may say that a right moment was chosen for it and that it had been thoroughly prepared. And to think that its final phase has practically started when the Croat Army conquered Grahovo and Glamoc, then parts of mount Dinara, which resulted in surrounding Knin. It was interpreted as assistance to the Army of B&H intended to protect safety zones of Bihac and lifting the few-years long blockade. This aspect was especially stressed by the Americans, so after the "Storm", their official statements kept emphasizing that the Croat and the Boshniak forces have in fact completed the job which should have been done by the international community. It is interesting and indicative that there were no sharp reactions of the world to action "Storm", on the contrary, all international powers chose to recognize the new situation, just mildly warning against violation of human rights.

Action "Storm" was carefully prepared, yet one should not forget that the Croat forces had significant support of the USA in it. Neither their nor any other forces have actually participated in the action, but it is no secret that the American Army had assisted in training of officers and soldiers, that it had elaborated action plans, and perhaps partly assisted with armament as well, though not directly. American military experts, pursuant the agreement signed two years ago, have been present in Croatia for a long time now, and in return Tudjman was ready to offer certain locations at the Adriatic coast for future NATO bases, and even a new military airport was built in Zaton near Zadar. All this points out to the fact that with clever manoeuvring Tudjman and Susak wish to bring Croatia as close to the NATO as possible, so that rumours about American-Croat alliance are not completely groundless. On the contrary. After Slovenia has joined the Partnership for Peace project, the political military strategic situation in this part of Europe has already changed.

The other great change brought about by action "Storm" is that Croatia has become almost exclusively a single-nation state, since according to international assessments, about 300 thousand Serbs have left it. Calculations speak about 120 to 200 thousand Serbs having left "Krajina" in August alone. Figures vary depending on the source, but it is difficult to obtain precise data since almost nobody, not even Martic himself, knew for sure how many Serbs had lived here in the first place. This means that the Serbs do not form eight per cent of the total population any more, which provided them with a special status and proportional representation in all forms of power, pursuant to the Constitution of Croatia.

Croatia is not trying too hard to get this part of its population back, but in fact acts as if the "Serb issue" has been solved finally and for good. On the other hand, it is facing the problem how to colonize the empty space of "Krajina" which will partly be accomplished by returning the Croats banned from "krajina", but from Bosnia & Herzegovina, especially the region around Nanja Luka, and from Vojvodina as well. By returning "Krajina" back under its jurisdiction, Croatia has finally managed to establish normal communications between its central and its maritime region. This opens new economic possibilities, especially in revitalization of the economy in Dalmatia, where tourism which used to bring about two billion dollars of foreign exchange revenue, will be given priority again. Opening of new railroads and highwys towards Split, Zadar and Sibenik will significantly reduce the costs of transportation, and switching on of a few hydro-electric power plants and high-voltage transmision lines will increase Croatia's economic power in that respect.

By conquering "Krajina" Croatia has reduced pressure on its borders, so now it can concentrate all her might on neuralgic points of the still occupied Sector East, that is, Baranja, Eastern Slavonia and Western Srem, and vicinity of Dubrovnik where Bosnian Serbs are still threatening it. Tudjman has greatly strengthened his international negotiating position and he will not have to make compromises any more, although he still must watch out for Milosevic's stance. But, mild reaction of Belgrade proves that the Serb leader had anticipated something of the kind. And the fact that the Russian stance is sharper than that of Belgrade is interpreted by Yeltsin's interior problems and approaching elections, but he will probably go by Stalin's saying: "There can never be as many votes against us as we can steal".

It is quite certain that action "Storm" has introduced a new quality into international relations, but it has changed the political picture of Croatia just a s much. The military action which was immediately claimed by the ruling Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) as exclusively its own, confused almost the entire opposition and immediately after it, a whole series of transfers into the ruling party followed. Therefore, it is no wonder why Tudjman decided to schedule the elections now when he is enjoying an enormous support of the people, because he knows he should strike while the iron is hot.

All at once, numerous interior problems were pushed to the margins, and the Croats are carried on the wings of a the great victory they had dreamed of. Action "Storm" will hence seal the destiny of Croatia for at least another four years, because it is digfficult to believe that the HDZ will not win the elections which will presumably take place in the last week of October or the first week in November. And just in order to prevent even the slightest possibility of a surprise, a new election law was drafted, which is expected to be adopted by the Assembly at its first autumn session and at the same time the last on this composition - on September 18. Pursuant to this law, as many as 80 per cent of the representatives will be elected by the proportional system - from the so-called state lists. And when one knows that Tudjamn will be the bearer of the list, it is not difficult to presume why such a solution was selected. In order to enter the Assembly a party will need at least five, a coalition of two parties eight, and that of three as many as 11 per cent of votes. Small parties have completely been wiped out in this way, especially regional ones such as the Istrian Democratic Assembly or the Dalmatian Action, but the disunited leftists do not stand much of a chance either. Only 28 representatives will be elected by the majority system, and an additional safety clutch has been introduced here too: 12 representatives will be elected by Croat living abroad. Ethnic minorities will have 7 representatives, out of which the Serbs will have three instead of the former 13.

All this indicates that action "Storm" was not just the event of August, but perhaps the event of the decade, and according to some of the century, and that it will essentially determine the future of this space, and especially of Croatia itself. What kind of tectonic disturbances or changes have been initiated by it is perhaps best illustrated by the fact that the possibility of Tudjman being proclaimed life-long president has repeatedly been mentioned, or that he should at least be enabled to run for president as many times as he wishes. Democracy will obviously have to wait for some time in Croatia. For how long, that is the question, because the HDZ is firmly holding all power in its hand - the police, the army, TV, the press, the economy, and the only possibility is to wait for the HDZ to begin to disintegrate from within. And that process has started a long time ago. In other words, one can do nothing but wait for specific interests to replace nation-building ambitions, and the HDZ obviously cannot represent them all, which was best proved by the League of Communists. Namely, although it is clear that the HDZ at this moment actually represents just a small circle of new capitalists, when peacetime comes many will realize that it is not their party after all.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC