THE SERBS EMIGRATED FROM THE ASSEMBLY, TOO

AIM, ZAGREB, September 5, 1995 The ruling Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) reached the decision about the date of early elections for the Chamber of Representatives of the Assembly. Dr Ivic Pasalic, councellor of the President of the Republic and member of the party leadership, who made this piece of news public, refused to say the actual date. The speculations say that Croatia could go to the polls towards the end of November or in the beginning of December. There are also those who presume that the elections could be scheduled for the end of December, when due to Christmas and New Year's vacations, a lot of people employed abroad visit the homeland.

Therefore, the only thing known for sure so far is that there will be elections, that they will be scheduled at least eight months before they are due, but everything else is concealed by a veil of mystery. Apart from the exact date which has remained a mystery, a question mark also hangs over the election law, as well as over the manner in which the citizens who do not have permanent residence in the country will vote. Noone knows by what percentage the election limit for entering the parliament will be raised, which was so far three per cent, what that limit will be for possible election coalitions, whether it will be equal for the alliance of two and for more than two parties. It is also unknown what the election districts will be like, how many representatives will be elected by means of state lists, and how many by direct voting of individuals. What will become of the citizens of Croatia who live abroad is a separate problem, when we know that pursuant to the Constitution any Croat may be a citizen regardless of the place of birth. This means that citizens of Bosnia & Herzegovina or "Herzeg-Bosnia", but many others with double or even triple citizenship could significantly influence the election results.

But, two facts about the elections are already perfectly clear. The first is that the HDZ has an enormous advantage, since in the elections which it itself determined the timing for and which it will be drafting the election law for, it will capitalize on its military successes - "flashes" and "storms". The opposition parties, especially Budisa's Social Liberal party, are falling to pieces, and there is an increasing number of turncoats who are joining the authorities, so that one might claim with certainty that the HDZ will most probably win the third election race. The only question is by what percentage it will win the majority. Leaders of the HDZ wish for two thirds, and the opposition claims that Tudjman's party might possibly count on the same results as in 1992 (about 43 per cent of votes and well over half of assembly representatives). Regardless of the fact that membership of his party is constantly dropping out and the Liberals are going over to the HDZ, so that they have even lost power in Split and will probably be left without city authorities in Zagreb, and Assembly representatives such as the Vice Chairman of the Chamber of Districts, Damir Zoric or the President of the Representatives' Club, Mate Mestrovic (son of the famous sculptor) joined the HDZ already, Mr Budisa still claims that he will win the elections in a coalition with other parties.

In any case, we are in for an exciting election campaign which will be marked by so much dirty linen washed in public like there has never been before. But, it seems that all this put together will not be enough to defeat the HDZ at this moment of national ecstasy and tremendous popularity of President Tudjman, especially when it is known that this party has taken possession of all segments of power. And it is also known that it is ready to steal if necessary.

The other undisputed fact is that the Serbs will not have 13 representatives in the Chamber of Representatives but probably one or perhaps two. Such a comparatively large number of representatives of Serb nationality, out of which three are members of the Serb National Party of Milan Djukic and the others are members of other parties the Serbs have put on their election lists, was founded on the Constitutional Law on human rights and freedoms of ethnic and national communitities or minorities. Pursuant to this, still valid Law, a national community or minority which forms at least eight per cent of the population must be proportionally represented in all segments of the authorities - legislative, executive and judicial. This Law also warrants representation in the Assembly to members of the so-called autochtonous minorities, and that is why the Italians, Hungarians, Czechs and the Slovaks alse elected their representatives.

After the "Flash" and the "Storm" - as the Government publicly declared a few days ago - the demographic picture of Croatia significantly changed. According to the data gathered by international organizations, since 1991 about 300 thousand Serbs emigrated from Croatia out of 581,663 of them who had lived here according to 1991 census, so that they do not even form eight, least of all 12 per cent of the total population. Due to that, the Serbs in Croatia will probably have the same rights, as for example the Italians with their 21 thousand, the Hungarians with 22 thousand, or the Czechs of whom there are only 13 thousand. The Government reached the decision to suspend temporarily certain provisions and the entire fourth chapter referring to autonomous districts of Knin and Glina. Implementation of these provisions is suspended until a new census which is planned for the first half of April 1996. Croat authorities, therefore, especially if intensifying colonization of the former "krajina" by Croat refugees from Bosnia and Vojvodina is taken into account, obviously consider departure of the Serbs final and expect no wave of returnees.

This fits well into the planned scenario of "humane moving" of the population and creation of nationally homogeneous states. But, it might be useful to mention that this term was first publicly mentioned three years ago in Geneva, when Tudjman and the former Yugoslav president Cosic met under the auspices of the international community.

There is no doubt that a census is necessary in Croatia, because at the moment, noone can even tell how many inhabitants it has, nor what its ethnic structure is like, but the question of legitimacy of Government decisions can be put when it prejudges the solution based on assessments of international institutions. These assessments are most probably true, but nevertheless, should not they be verified first? Croat sponsors in the world are silent for the time being, and the only reaction is postponement of the discussion about reception of Croatia into the Council of Europe, so that the elections will certainly take place when the HDZ and Tudjman will want them to. It is also certain that the HDZ will win again, just as it is certain that the Serbs have definitely and irrevocably become a national minority.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC