COLLAPSE OF CROAT TOURISM

AIM, Zagreb, June 23, 1995 Croat Minister of Tourism, Niko Bulic, M.A., stated optimistically a few days ago, that Croatia would make a similar turnover like last year, that is, 20 million tourist days and an income in foreign currency of 20 billion dollars. But, this forecast in no way fits in with the reality and does not correspond to the figures which relentlessly point out that it will be difficult to reach the last-year's balance sheet. This refers especially to Istria, from tourist centres of which such as Porec, Umag, Rovinj, Pula, Opatija... not very encouraging news are arriving.

At one moment, it did seem that the season would be prosperous, especially after an increase of the number of guests in April, but after first "small bells" (shell fragments) fell on Zagreb, telefax messages cancelling arrivals flowed in incessantly. It all contributed to the turnover in May dropping down to the level of just 50 per cent of the same month last year, rising now in June to some 70 per cent. It is really quite sorrowful to walk around the half empty Porec or Rovinj in these first summer days, because although all hotels are opened, there are practically no guests in them.

In Dalmatia, of course, the situation is dreary when speaking of tourists. They can almost be counted on one's finger ends, because few dare spend their holidays to the south of Crikvenica, due to the vicinity of the war zone. Except for some tourists on the islands, among them Brac setting an example like last year, a certain number of tourists have flown as far south as Makarska. After all, only a million and 700 thousand tourist days were registered in this region last year, which was an increase in relation to 1993 of as much as 236 per cent, but in comparison with the pre-war 1990 it was a drop of 90.8 per cent. Dalmatian tourism used to amount to 37 per cent of the Croat tourism, and last year it was reduced to a meagre 8.8 per cent. The real proportions of Dalmatian tourist catastrophe is even more obvious when one looks at the fact that this Croat province has as much as 176 thousand tourist beds, out of which 75 thousand are in hotels. All promotive activities the state has invested an enormous sum of money into, amounting to tens million German marks, did not succeed to convince the foreigners, but not even domestic guests, that Dalmatia is safe. The Government reached a desperate decision several days ago to allow enormous discounts for flights to Dubrovnik, so that the return ticket costs just slightly more than a bus ticket. But even if there had been any guests, there would hardly have been anyone to welcome them, because lrge number of waiters and cooks have left the sea coast, looking for jobs abroad or in the continental part of the country.

And in the beginning of the year, it all seemed quite different. The Government forecast that in a moderate version, Croat tourism could make about 26.5 million tourist days, out of which about 4.5 million in Dalmatia. In a more optimistic version offered by analysts, 30 million tourist days were expected, out of which 4.7 million in Dalmatia.

Now, however, the last-year's results were set as the ultimate goal, and even Director of Head Office of Croat Tourist Community, Zeljko Toncinic, M.A., is ready to agree with his Minister. He himself says that tourist groups are mostly lost, which is quite understandable, when a number of countries adopted a recommendation on not travelling to Croatia due to war and similar risks. According to him, the season could perhaps be saved by individual guests, but on condition that no new unexpected situations occur. He assesses the decision of the German Government to allow free travelling to Croatia, to be more precise to Istria and Kvarner, as a positive sign, as well as the fact that "Lufthansa" has started to fly to Zagreb again.

• If the Germans start coming, the others will follow
• Toncinic claims. But all things considered, this is just a self-dillusion, and it will be almost impossible for Croatia to repeat last year's results, which, although evaluated as glorious, brought nothing but losses to tourism in general. And what tourism means to Croatia is best illustrated by the figure of 52.5 million tourist days in 1990, out of which foreigners were in the majority of 65.4 per cent. Foreigners from rich countries such as Germany, Austria, Italy, Great Britain, Netherlands or France. Last year, out of 15 million tourist days, Czechs had 3.279 million, Germans followed with 2.905, Austrians with 2.340, Slovenes with 2.050, and Italians with 1.717 million tourist days.

But, it seems that, after all, war is not to blame for everything and that it is not the only reason why foreigners are not coming to Croatia. It is true that, for instance, in Porec, it is possible to get full board and lodging for only 30 to 40 German marks in a decent hotel, but everything else is far more expensive than in the countries where Croatia would like to get guests from. - Last year - a Director of one of the Porec hotels says - we had cases when four guests from Czech Republic ordered one pizza, because it was too expensive. Italians were shocked how could a cup of coffee be more expensive than in their country, or that a litre of just ordinary wine cost 15 marks. And so on, and so forth. Therefore, it is no wonder that electric bulbs were stolen from the hotel in great numbers, and that there were even cases of stolen toilet seats. Those who came last year and burned their fingers will certainly not let themselves be tricked into coming because of cheap board and lodging. An even greater surprise is in line for them this year.

The firm Government monetary policy of preserving the exchange rate of kuna resulted in a decline of the purchasing power of all major world currencies. The lira fared the worst dropping by 22 per cent, the dollar had lost 19 per cent of its value, the British pound 15 per cent. The French frank is now exchanged for 7 per cent less than last year, and then comes the German mark for 3.24 per cent less, the Slovene tolar for 6.19, the Austrian schilling for 3.35, the Swiss franc for 1.30 per cent.

When one adds the fact that the prices have significantly increased and that the government is persistently refusing to recognize inflation, but on the contrary, has declared kuna the most stable currency in the whole world despite the fact that production has not increased since 1991 for a millimetre, the main reason for empty hotels besides the war is obtained. The government is insisting on its program which practically does not even exist because it consists of a single issue: there is no issuing money. Prime Minister Valentic and his team are stubbornly refusing to accept the opinion of experts which keep warning about the alarming necessity of changing monetary policy, but also of elaboration of a true conception of developement, as well.

Voices of experts such as Dr Guste Santini, Dr Drazen Kalodjera, Dr Branimir Lokin, Dr Stjepan Zdunic and others, do not seem to penetrate through the doors of the seat of the President. And they are the ones, although not the only ones, who claim that inflation has already reached the figure of about four per cent a month. As an illustration, isn't it absurd that a kilogram of bananas should cost half the price of potatoes?

It is therefore not surprising that the foreign trade deficit is unwaveringly increasing. In the first four months of this year, export of 1,456 billion dollars was achieved, which is an increase of 62.8 per cent, but commodities worth 2.354 billion dollars were imported which is by 106.8 per cent more than in the same period in 1994.

Such stubborn actions of the government many tend to interpret primarily by political and not economic reasons, because the Croat Democratic Community does not wish to destabilize kuna on the eve of the elections. It is one of the trump cards of victory. To what extent the Government is alergic to the word devaluation is best illustrated by the fact that it reacted to a text published in "Slobodna Dalmacija" from Split with a special statement. And it was just the matter of an expert opinion of a renowned Zagreb economist, Dr Zeljko Rohatinski.

And, therefore, instead of tourists coming to Croatia, its citizens are going shopping to Slovenia, Italy, Austria or Hungary practically every day. It is not even necessary to check the prices, especially in Austria. Take everything, it is either cheaper, or at least of a better quality.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC