TODAY WORSE THAN YESTERDAY - BUT BETTER THAN TOMORROW

AIM, OSIJEK, April 26, 1995 If information obtained by the leadership of the HSLS

• the most powerful opposition party in Croatia, is correct that the HDZ has rented all the space on advertising boards along the major roads in Croatia for the beginning of autumn, could for the time being be the most conclusive evidence that the ruling party has decided to schedule early elections. The number of such signals is increasing every day. The latest among them comes from the HDZ itself, from the session of its Presidency which "urges the Croat Government to consider the possibility of rise of pensions by State Day". Therefore, the news about the increase of pensions which, at the same gathering, Prime Minister Nikica Valentic comments by saying that he "expects that in a year it will be possible to increase all the pensions by 30 to 50 per cent" did not originate with the Croat Government, but from the session of the Presidency of the ruling party. If the fact that, in Croatia, there are about 860 thousand retired persons (average pension amounts to 756 kunas or a little above 200 German marks), which is almost a third of the electorate, it is clear why such good news for the pensioners comes from the session of the Presidency of the HDZ.

The saying that the greatest number of lies is uttered after a hunt and before elections could in this way be justified by the promise that Croat pensioners will soon be receiving (on the average) 100 marks a month more. It is not clear in what manner Valentic intends to pump the fantastic billion German marks into the pension insurance fund annually, which would be necessary to make fulfiling of this promise possible. This makes it clear why the HDZ's greatest concern are the retired persons. But, one thing at a time.

Some time ago, a weekly published the results of a public opinion poll, which allegedly, for the needs of the ruling party was carried out fairly discretely by a team of the Institute for Applied Social Research headed by Dr Esad Cimic. The results were such that those who select information which arrive daily on the table of President Tudjman, did not know for days how to present them to the head of the Croat state. According to these results, at the forthcoming elections in Croatia, the Croat Peasants' Party (HSS) would get the majority of votes, the second would be HSLS, and the HDZ would rank the third.

If the story about the results of Mr Cimic's research is taken to be true, it will become clear why the HDZ is expressing such concern for the retired persons. The last elections showed that in the majority of Croat cities (with the exception of Zagreb), the HDZ is defeated by the opposition. If the HSS has really made such a progress since the last elections, it means that the voters from the rural part of the electorate have also turned their backs to the HDZ. Relying on the votes of the workers is also more than uncertain, because discontent in that part of the population - if banned persons are excluded - is surely the least favourable. Success of strikes (railway, education) illustrates this best, and difficulties in Croat economy, where the majority of employees receive salaries with long delays and where enormous unemployment threatens with a true social revolt, verifies this additionally. If something spectacular does not happen to enable the return of the first banned persons to their homes, the HDZ will find it diffucult to obtain a significant percentage of votes from this part of the electorate. Their accumulated discontent and desperate position of the great majority of banned persons will be quite favourable for parties from the right wing of the spectre on the Croat political scene.

When all the elements are added and subtracted, the assessment that it is worthwhile to play it safe and first satisfy the retired population, who are traditionally the most intert and conservative part of the electorate seems logical. Can this, however, be sufficient for a victory in the elections?

The Zagreb weekly "Globus" in the past few days published the information about establishment of a pre-election coalition of four opposition parties - the HSLS, HSS, Croat National Party and the Croat Independent Democrats. These parties, it is assessed, could win more than 50 per cent of votes and deprive the HDZ of power. Although the coalition of the four parties whose programs do not have much in common, does not seem easily feasible - it could function, the quoted weekly carries, only in case of a combination of the majority and the proportional election system. What election system will HDZ choose and how much truth there is in the rumours that the whole of Croatia could be a single constituency, that is, that the new election law could give preference to the purely proportional system, research in the laboratory of Smiljko Sokol, the author of the former election laws which brought victory to the HDZ will show. But, in this case, coalition of the mentioned parties would not survive, because both the HSLS and the HSS assess that they are powerful enough and that they can independently enter the Croat Assembly.

Regardless of the fact whether the elections will be scheduled next autumn or when due - next year, the HDZ will not wait for them calmly and self-confidently like the previous. It seems that President Tudjman was clearly informed that no military action of large proportions would be tolerated and that he himself had verified this by Copenhagen agreement and adoption of Resolution 981. To go to elections without making a move in the sphere of the absolutely most significant Croat priority - reintegration of occupied territories - is no point in favour of the ruling party and it is certain that the opposition will use this as the most powerful argument in the attempt to remove the HDZ from the office. If there is any truth in the rumours that reintegration of Western Slavonia and crumbling of "Krajina" may soon begin, which is mentioned occasionally by well informed sources, it would be a turning-point which could bring a new landslide victory to the HDZ. But, there are no indications of the kind (especially not after a one-day demonstration of force when Martic closed "his" part of the highway for 24 hours) and it seems that this is more the matter of wishes of those who are launching the rumours, than of any realistic foothold in reality.

The sign that, despite the repeated assurances of the leadership of the HDZ that there will be no early elections, they are approaching, is evident in the attempts to discredit the leading people of some opposition parties. While Mesic-Manolic's Croat Independent Democrats are torn to pieces by state media as national traitors par excellence, due to inerviews given to Belgrade journals (when interviews of Tudjman, Domljan or Glavas were published in Belgrade, there was no such haranguing), and there are attempts to accuse Budisa's close cooperates from the HSLS, Dr Kramaric and Mladen Vilfan, of spying and intelligence activities, separatist intentions are imputed to the Istrian Democratic Alliance (IDS), after the First World Congress of the Istrians. If the criminal scandal with reselling of corn from commodity reserves is added to this, with the most popular member of the HSS, Josip Pankretic involved, it is quite clear that the party in power is meticulously opening files, indicating that there is a lot more to be found in the basket for dirty linen. At the same time, in order to create the conviction that the HDZ is still an attractive party, transfers of certain deputies (Mirko Madjor from the HSS) are given much attention and new are announced (allegedly Ivica Vrkic, Mirko Tankosic and Slavko Mestrovic from the HNS).

One could also put the question what is the reason for such haste of the HDZ to call early elections, when the objective it wished to achieve is still completely uncertain. But, it seems that Tudjman's party is aware of the fact that it could lose even the little they have now, because the splits within the party have acquired such proportions that, regardless of the restraints and the cohesive force, the ruling party will not be able to control them much longer. For the second time in the past two months, statements that Prime Minister Valentic is staying in office have been publicized (this time it was said: until the new elections) which is presumably intended to show that Tudjman continues to support the managerial faction which is constantly in conflict with the rightists in the party, and who are forced to fight a difficult battle for each and every influential post. There are even no attempts to conceal the divisions within the party any more, and even one of the chief supports of the ruling party, Katarina Fucek and the Secretary General of the HDZ, Zlatko Canjuga, publicly speak about factions and different tendencies in their latest presentations. And since the situation in the state is in general "worse today than it was yesterday, but better than what it will be tomorrow", it is assessed that there is no reason to wait for the elections, because the number of possible votes is decreasing every day.

Much depends on the results of the internal party elections of the Croat Democratic Community planned for the forthcoming summer. The election committee is headed by Ivan Milas, whose position within the party may best be determined as a position between the managers and the rightist faction of the party. Only when these affairs are taken care of, and the HDZ cleans its own yard will it become clear what the ruling party will come up with for the elections. This will then make it possible to conclude when they will be scheduled.

DRAGO HEDL